Saturday, August 25, 2012

Warning signs of an intermediate drop

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 27, 2012

Oscillators on weekly charts are starting to diverge clearly from the price action as the Fed-spooned Wall Street indices knock their head against overhead resistance. 

So far, monthly charts are not giving the same clear warning signs, which would point to a major collapse.

But the fact it's happening on weekly charts indicates there is an increased risk of at least an intermediate-term decline developing.

We will go through a relatively simple exercise this weekend, reviewing Weekly Planets charts for the major indices and check the condition of the planetary downdraft warning in the FTSE I mentioned last weekend.

In terms of The Spooky Stuff, we have another planetary sign change, following the Sun's shift from gambling Leo to analytical and critical Virgo. It's more significant because it involves the action planet, Mars, moving out of Libra and into its own second sign, Scorpio.

Mars in Libra is a diplomat - a velvet glove without the iron fist inside. Mars in Scorpio is ruthless, relentless and totally unforgiving. The change is likely to have a strong impact in a number of mundane areas.

I doubt anyone thinks the language between the Obama and Romney camps has been all that diplomatic, but what is to come will make it seem so. Then there's Bundesbank versus ECB and Israel/Iran.

With Mars gone from Libra, we will see more "scorched earth" aggression taking centre stage.

We began last weekend with a FTSE Daily chart, showing the potential for a planetary downdraft to develop.
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I went into some detail last weekend about the probable impact on the FTSE - and, by extension, other indices - and rather than go through it all again, you can check the Archives if you need a refresher.

The FTSE's Weekly Planets chart is below, showing target prices if the downturn continues.

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The fast MACD is starting to fade. However, there is a much clearer level of negative divergence showing in the long-range Canary on the SP500.

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I updated this chart a couple of weekends ago, when I added a third black horizontal technical barrier. Predictably, Pollyanna was turned down from that level last week ... and it happened with negative divergence in the oscillator, something we'd discussed was likely to occur.

It is a significant divergence and raises the odds of bringing on a decline measured in weeks, rather than days. The 500's Weekly Planets targets are listed in the chart below.

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Last weekend, I used WP charts for the German DAX and Indian Nifty. Of the DAX, I said: "... it would appear as though the index is trying to reach Uranus targets, the orange lines which provided both Support and Resistance as the index was topping in early 2011. The price levels associated with those lines are 7117 and 7279."

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Close ... but no cigar. The DAX made it only to 7105 before dropping away. Still, it did "try" to reach the Uranus target. As y'can tell, those orange Uranus lines have a bit of history with weekly price moves on this index.

I had thought the Nifty might be aiming for a Pluto barrier at 5473 before its rally faded. Again, we had an effort to get there ... but the rise stalled at the 5448 Saturn level instead.

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If you're trading either of those indices (and I know some of you are), you might want to copy and paste those charts for quick reference in the weeks ahead.

The ASX200 Weekly Planets chart is below.

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I often make the point, especially for newbies and small traders who need to keep their costs under control, that Fibonacci Rx and Xt levels, are a perfectly adequate alternative to planetary levels - and we can use the 200 as an example.

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Okay. Let's recap. Our preferred oscillators are starting to sing off-key. We have an energy pattern shift with both the Sun and Mars changing signs. We've spent the past few weekends expecting a challenge to earlier Highs, especially with Wall Street, because the technical conditions were over-riding the expectations of further declines caused by the Bradley Model dates and my interpretations of The Spooky Stuff.

Now, we're beginning to see the technical conditions also starting to shift.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012


Monday, August 20, 2012

September 2012 Astrological Calendar - Transits for NY NY, The NYSE

Astrology calendar showing the day and times of planetary aspects for the NYSE, for the month of September 2012.
Astrological Calendar with Transits for NY NY, The NYSE September 2012















Click image to view full size calendar.

September 2012 Astrological Calendar - Transits for London, England, The FTSE

Astrological Calendar showing the day and times of planetary aspects for the FTSE, for the month of September, 2012.

September 2012 Astrological Calendar - Transits for London, England, The FTSE















Click image to view full size calendar.

September 2012 Astrological Calendar - Transits for Sydney, Australia, The ASX

Astrology calendar showing the day and times of planetary aspects for the ASX, for the month of September 2012
Astrological Calendar for planetary aspects for the ASX, September 2012















Click image to view full size calendar

Saturday, August 18, 2012

FTSE warns of planetary downdraft

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 20, 2012 

For the past couple of weekends, we've been mindful of the potential for markets to challenge previous Highs and, perhaps even breakout higher - especially going into last week's Venus and Mars aspects and the statistical high period of a New Moon.

Wall Street ended last week with the VIX, the so-called fear index, at its lowest level since 2007 ... while the SP500 rose further within the bubble territory which culminated in the onset of major Bear attacks.
We will review the charts this weekend for the 500, the Nasdaq 100, Germany's DAX and India's Nifty ... as well as analysing the potential for an important, sudden downdraft planetary signal now showing up on London's FTSE index.

The FTSE signal is the reverse of one which showed up in early June when I pointed out that index had a history of attaching itself to rising Sun lines as it entered rally mode.

In astrological terms over the next week, there is little to get excited about. The Sun will move from Leo to Virgo, suggesting a change in thinking. Leo, as one of the Fire signs, is optimistic to the point of being heroic. It's also the sign that rules gold, gambling and stock speculation.

Virgo is symbolic of a more reticent and more critical energy. It's one of the "thinking" signs, where almost nothing is taken at face value, but is closely analysed and dissected in detail. Virgo is the sign that rules accountants and knows how to check the books for any signs of flawed thinking and rubbery figures.

We will begin this week by looking at the potential warning signal from the FTSE.
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Please ignore the vertical pink and green lines - some sort of software glitch. What we're interested in are the two sets of downtrending diagonals. These are primary Sun, Mercury and Venus lines ... and are what sent the FTSE into a dive when the index bumped into them just over a year ago.

Below is the FTSE Planets chart we've constantly revisited since early June, when the rising green diagonal of a Sun line first alerted us to the potential for a rally in Western stock indices.
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I indicated recently the index was trying to reattach itself to that rising Sun line, but that I thought the attempt would fail. For the most part, the index has simply gone sideways since then ... and is now within a Sun/Mercury downtrend zone, in a very similar position to where it was going into mid 2011.

The oscillators are stacked negatively. Green is the short-term, red the medium, and the yellow line is the long-range. There is no confirmed danger to the rally until that yellow line breaks down below the top red horizontal in the indicator panel. However, the other two are warning internal weakness is developing.

In spite of those warning signs, we cannot rule out more upside in the FTSE

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The chart above is a FTSE monthly and perhaps the most significant thing on the chart is not the index's containment within a triangle, but the fact that the long-range Canary is showing a sign of positive divergence. It is not confirmed, because the month is only half over.

The oscillator is currently hitting a higher peak, while price is actually lower than the two previous peaks. So, from a technical reading, the monthly is suggesting higher prices are probable. Balanced against that is a planetary price warning with some historical validity.

As a more general comment ... unlike some of the American indices, the FTSE has backed away from "the bubble zone" delineated by the black horizontal and has yet to take out either its highs from early 2011 or early 2012.

Germany's DAX is in a similar position.

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As we've discussed recently for the 500, the FTSE and the ASX 200, there have been no warning signals emanating from the fast MACD on weekly charts - and the same is true for the DAX, where the rally is endorsed not just by the rising, positive signal lines, but also by the continued climbing of the histogram peaks.

Above is the DAX Weekly Planet chart - and it would appear as though the index is trying to reach Uranus targets, the orange lines which provided both Support and Resistance as the index was topping in early 2011. The price levels associated with those lines are 7117 and 7279.

Let's look next at India's Nifty 50 index. I draw your attention firstly to the fact it's largely a Pluto dominated index. As is easy to see from its history, the Nifty tends to find either long-range Support or Resistance at price levels determined by the position of Pluto in the zodiac.

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That gives us a guide to where the Nifty might be aiming before the current rally starts to fail. We can use the Nifty Weekly Planets chart, below, to see what's happening.

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The index ended the past week sitting on top of the Pluto line it backed down from six weeks ago. If you trace that line backwards across the chart, you can judge its past significance. Obviously, if the Nifty can hold the 5322 level, the weekly target is 5473 before it faces rejection by the overhead Pluto.

Okay, so let's head over to Wall Street. We'll begin with a long-range look at the NDX so we can see the big picture.
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Firstly, the dark green price bars show the time Jupiter was in Taurus - historically, the Bull peak before a Bear decline which lasts until Jupiter in Leo. The tech bubble-become-wreck peaked with Jupiter in Taurus. It, so far, appears to be doing a repeat performance ... a minor case of the wobbles as Jupiter first goes green ... followed by a sudden rally and fast drop ... then a retest of the Taurean Jupiter high.

In this case, the retest is also an important Fibonacci level. So, while the performance of Nasdaq stocks, like Apple, has been of real importance in lifting Wall Street, there are reasons to be concerned about the potential for much higher gains.

Now that we have some idea of what other major markets are doing, let's try to read the omens, portents and entrails for Pollyanna, the SP500.
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Let's begin with another look at the long-range. I'm still at a loss to explain why anyone would be expecting further Fed intervention with the major Wall Street indices at these price levels. The horizontal technical Resistance is obvious at this level. Pollyanna is well inside the bubble zone - and there are warning klaxons going off in both the short-term and medium oscillators.
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The warnings don't rule out the possibility - even the probability - of a new high before markets roll over, since the pattern appears to be that of an ending diagonal, which would allow for a marginal new high in the post-2009 recovery rally before a decline begins.

Again I point out that these oscillator signals do not become confirmed until the month is over. It is possible we could get a new high here, but that by the end of the month the long-range Canary will display negative divergence, just as the short-term and medium lines are currently showing.

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Last weekend, we discussed the potential for a breakout heading into the Venus/Mars aspects to Saturn and Uranus/Pluto and the New Moon ... and we got the highest, strongest weekly close in the index since the start of the Bear market in 2007.

IF the rally is to continue, there are two different target levels. The 1467 has been marked on the long-range and weekly planets charts for Pollyanna for some time. The interim level is marked by the crosshair cursor on the chart above - 1439.

Also over the past couple of weeks, I've been using Bi-BB charts for various indices as an example of how useful a tool it can be, for those of you who've absorbed that chapter from The Technical Section. It's a valuable technical tool which can be set up in almost any market software and gives slightly different alternative targets to the planetary charts.

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The index behaved as it's "supposed" to do after breaking into the top tier of the Bi-BB layers at the end of the previous week; retesting downside support and then bouncing higher. There is still no warning signal from the fast MACD, with the signal lines and the height of the histogram peaks endorsing the legitimacy of the rally.

There is a chance the breakout on Pollyanna is a "false break", which would bring on a collapse. But there are no really major warning signs of that danger.

The only danger signal is coming from the FTSE. Months ago, we used the appearance of a rising Sun line to alert us to the potential for a rebound in Western markets. Now, those charts are sending an alert that a sudden and unexpected downdraft may be nearby.

Safe trading - RA
Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012

Friday, August 17, 2012

The New Moon in Leo, 2012

Astrological Investing New Moon forecasts show general trends and financial outlook for the month
The New Moon in Leo, August 17 - Chart from the point of view of Wall Street and the NYSE.
Try to drive a race car with the parking brake on.
How fast can you go?


Mars conjoins Saturn August 14th, and the co-rulers of this New Moon chart - Mars and Pluto - are not in good condition.
There are serious difficulties suggesting problems that will undoubtedly affect the US market this month.

Read this weekend's Eye of Ra Report - "High-energy aspects will hit mid-week, week beginning August 13, 2012, or read it on this blog

August finds most of us looking forward to cooler weather, the next season, and children going back to school. Uranus is in the fourth house of the Summer Solstice Chart (click to read article) suggesting the unusual, disruptive, and destructive weather we have been having. This will continue throughout the rest of the summer.

An Astrological Trip Around the New Moon in Leo Chart

In Mundane Astrology the first, fourth, seventh and tenth houses are most important, with the tenth house having a special reference to the ruler of the country, the government in power, and the national honor and reputation of the country.

New Moon in the tenth house, sextile Mars and Saturn
When a lunation occurs in the tenth, it is favorable unless afflicted by aspects to Mars, Saturn, or the outer planets. With a sextile to Mars and Saturn there is opportunity for the Obama administration to exert greater power, but this does not garner him any popularity.

The last exact aspect the Moon makes before entering the zodiac sign of Virgo is the sextile with Mars at 1:54 pm - meaning, the last hours of the trading day of the NYSE the Moon will be Void of Course. The market becomes unpredictable during a Void of Course Moon. Anything can happen.

Mars is conjunct Saturn in the twelfth house - Very problematic.
This conjunction occurs every two years, often twice in the same sign. The last Mars-Saturn conjunction took place at 0° Libra. On the positive side, personally, this astrological energy provides self discipline and diplomacy, negatively it is frustrated energy that builds and finally explodes. In mundane astrology it suggests serious national difficulties and discontent, exerting its strongest influence on countries ruled by the sign - in this case, Libra. Modern mundane astrology ascribes China to Libra.

Riots, crimes, murders and outrages increase. The government in power may act autocratically.

Saturn in the twelfth house, having special reference to conspiracies, secret enemies of the government, hospitals, and prisons, suggests unpopularity of government officials, heads of state, prominent national figures and a loss of national prestige.

Mercury in the ninth house near the MC - An increase in commerce and shipping.

Venus in the ninth house square Uranus and opposing Pluto.
We will experience the energy of this aspect two days BEFORE the New Moon as volatility in the market on the 15th and 16th. Along with the conjunction of Mars and Saturn on the 14th, the last days before the New Moon are filled with tension and stress which will impact the market negatively.

Venus in the ninth house with difficult aspects will produce problems possibly involving foreign trade, taxation of exports/imports and scandals, which may involve diplomats, and important religious and legal persons.

Jupiter in the eighth house - Increase in tax revenues.

Neptune in the fourth house - A fluctuation in political feeling. Failure and discredit to prominent people in government.

Wet weather may relieve areas in need of rain.

Pluto square Uranus - this is the astrological theme of the summer.
Though not exact until September, this waxing aspect is heating things up. In the USA, political parties will officially nominate their presidential candidates at conventions - the Republican National Convention, during week of August 27; the Democratic National convention, during the week of September 3, 2012. With Pluto and Uranus in cardinal signs, what we are experiencing is ruthless, negative campaigns and rowdy demonstrations. The 2012 campaign season has candidates themselves throwing punches.

Pluto in the third house - The powerful shift of favored sectors is strong -
Railways, shipping, telephone services, and all matters under the influence of Gemini will become the talk of Wall Street.

Uranus in the fifth house - Volatility in the market, traders do the unexpected.

***
Commentary - At astrologicalinvesting.com we teach financial astrology as a timing tool to use. Reading a mundane horoscope for the lunar month gives us a broad picture of the astrological landscape we expect to encounter during the month. However understanding the potential of planetary cycles and what the technical charts tell us is our best bet for successful trading. We need to see the whole picture.

Randall Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect - Each weekend, my associate, Randall Ashbourne writes a stock market forecast in his Eye of Ra Report on his web site, www.theidiotandthemoon.com. The information on the web site is free, I hope you take advantage of the valuable information he shares in his books and on the web site.

Moon Phases (for our subscribers who trade using phases of the Moon) New Moon August 17 - 1st quarter Moon, August 24; Full Moon, August 31; Last quarter Moon, September 8; Next New Moon, September 15.

Note: New Moon periods tend to be a positive time for the markets, often coinciding with temporary highs relative to the direction the market is trending. There are many of you who have been trading with the phases of the Moon and having much success; and you know by reading Randall's The Idiot and the Moon that there are times when it doesn't always work out that way! (Read Randall Ashbourne's article, The Moods of the Moon - Trading the Mood Swings of the Monthly Lunar Cycle be sure to purchase his eBook, The Idiot and the Moon)

"..The New Moon in Leo has a much higher than expected correlation to short-term trading troughs, from which the DJIA tends to rally..." Raymond Merriman, in his book, The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing -Solar/Lunar Correlations to Short Term Trading Reversals

"Moon in LEO - Is the sign of speculation and gambling. Once again, the “mood” shifts and some market will move. It won’t necessarily be stocks, because Leo rules gold." Randall Ashbourne, in his article on the blog, Using Daily Aspect Calendars to Time Intraday Trades

HEADS UP! - Upcoming astrological events

August 14, 15, 16 - Two important transits coming up are Mars conjunct Saturn August 14, and Venus in a T-square with Pluto and Uranus. As I stated in the New Moon chart interpretation, "volatility in the market on the 15th and 16th. Along with the conjunction of Mars and Saturn on the 14th, the last days before the New Moon are filled with tension and stress which will impact the market negatively."

Jupiter is now in Gemini - Important reading, Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street Studies have proven that stocks in a sector ruled by the zodiac sign that Jupiter is transiting in do well, and stocks that are ruled by the zodiac sign that Saturn is transiting in pull back. Now is the time to look at stocks that typically do well when Jupiter is in Gemini. In September we need to reevaluate Stocks in the Scorpio sector as Saturn ingresses into Scorpio October 5.

Astro Economics Stock Market Newsletter does the research for you! Regardless if it is a Bear or Bull market, there are always stocks that outperform. Gemini sectors include Advertising, Media (including social media), Telecommunication, Transportation (airline, railroad, truck & auto), Education, Leisure, Travel, Retail-Internet, Technology and Information Services.

From Grace Morris' Astro Economics August Stock Market Newsletter
"WATCH FOR NEW LEADERS TO EMERGE We are in a new cycle (Jupiter in Gemini 6/12/12-6/26/13) so it is time to watch new leaders emerge as favored sectors change. Some leaders have already begun to advance...
Although grocery stores today carry these products, the businesses that concentrate on healthy and organic seem to have an edge. Foods fit in the previous Jupiter in Taurus cycle but organic fits in the new mutable Jupiter in Gemini cycle which includes the sign of Virgo with its emphasis on healthy."


Grace Morris' trading edge in predicting the next set of favorable sectors is using planetary cycle analysis. Also, using Value Line and the Investors Business Daily as tools her recommended stocks are those favored sectors. Click to purchase Grace Morris' Astro Economics Stock Market Newsletter

Other resources - Michael Munkasey's Company Data Complete data - IPO dates and dates of incorporation on all the stocks in the NYSE.  

Safe Trading! Marley 
 
Read the New Moon Newsletter at www.astrologicalinvesting.com/html/newsletter.html

The New Moon forecast does not get posted until the day of the New Moon. The next New Moon will be: New Moon in Virgo, September 15, 2012.    Don't wait to read this newsletter on line! 

Subscribe to our newsletter if you would like to receive the next forecast before the next New Moon.  Announcements are delivered along with the Astrological Investing New Moon Newsletter before the new moon is posted to the web site and the blog. Click to subscribe to the newsletter.


Marley

Saturday, August 11, 2012

High-energy aspects will hit mid-week

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 13, 2012 


Stock markets are due for a date with destiny this coming week with a high chance of breakout ... or breakdown.


Mercury's return to Direct motion last weekend did bring a stop to the spurt-and-reverse cycle.

However, markets did not follow the pattern of ending the Mercury Retrograde period with prices near to where they were when the Rx cycle started.

Instead, they continued a slower grind higher. It was an outcome we anticipated last weekend - largely because of the state of the oscillators on weekly charts for the SP500, the FTSE and the ASX200. I remarked: "So, we have a situation where the normal Mercury Rx mode should bring prices down again by midweek, but the technical picture across three indices points towards further intermediate gains and the potential for a retest of last year's Highs."

In the coming week, there are high-energy aspects involving Venus, Mars, Saturn, Uranus and Pluto likely to provoke a sudden and significant shift.

And there's a New Moon, which leans towards a statistical high.

More significant, though, is a Mars conjunction with Saturn.

In astrological symbolism, Mars is energy and drive. If you want a feeling for how Mars works ... it's a bunch of NASA boys pumping the air with their fists as they parachute a 1 ton dune buggy onto the surface of a distant planet so they can go hooning around in a hot rod on the pretext of discovering the meaning of life.

Saturn is the brick wall. A very solid, very reinforced brick wall. Symbolically, on Wednesday, the "drive" is about to hit a brick wall. At the same time, Venus will oppose Pluto and square Uranus.

Venus, as the ruler of both Taurus and Libra, symbolises the "value" of things. In Taurean mode, the value relates to material things; while in Libra, the value relates to the "worth" one puts on close "others" - a partner, good friends ... even enemies.

So, the value of material things - money in the form of currency and stock values - goes into open conflict (the opposition) with big debt and government intervention (Pluto in Capricorn) and challenges the status quo (Uranus in Aries).

In a nutshell, we have energy now in play which can force a breakout to unexpected highs ... or a complete breakdown. One would expect the latter course.

However, I continually stress the need to make a clear distinction between astrological expectations and technical conditions. It's why last weekend we spent some time looking at intermediate and long-range charts for potential upside barriers, even though the Bradley Model and my own Forecast predictions pointed strongly towards Bear mode.

This weekend, we will go through the exercise again, especially since the Venus and Mars transits are likely to provoke a strong move in one direction or the other.

We'll begin by revisiting a chart which has been used quite a few times in the past few months.
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For quite a long time, I maintained only two black horizontal lines on this chart - with the upper line at the 1370 level. Firstly, a statement of the obvious ... the SP500 is still in a multi-year uptrend, riding the diagonal blue channels. It has broken above the 1370 level, which was the large spike down which provided the last low before the high and collapse in late 2007.

I've now added a third black horizontal and quick reference to past prices, indicates it's a very important marker. I also draw your attention to the state of the long-range Canary. Its current peak is lagging behind the price action. It means if we get a higher high, or even a double-top, and that negative divergence display continues in the oscillator, markets are finally set up - technically - to go into freefall. The technical set-up is what has been missing all year ... what I've described a number of times as the elephant in the room, trumpeting the real potential for higher prices than the astrological predictions expected.

Our next chart is Pollyanna's weekly Bi-BB. When I used this chart last weekend, I said: "On a technical basis, the chart suggests a new High is probable, rather than merely possible. The fast MACD looks healthy enough ... and the candlesticks are leaving long tails, indicating Bullish buyers step in just as the Bearish crowd threatens to take command." 

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Last week's end of the spurt-and-reverse cycle did push price higher - back into the highest tier of the Bi-BB layers, and with no faltering of the fast MACD signals.

The bad news for the Bearish expectations can also be found in a monthly version.
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The primary difference between the weekly and monthly Bi-BBs for the 500 is the relative state of the fast MACD. On the monthly, each price peak has brought a significantly lower peak in the height of the histograms and continuing weakness in the state of the signal lines.

However, the recovery of the upper tier on both charts certainly points to the potential for a breakout above last year's highs before markets roll over for another Bear phase.

I used weekly and long-range planet price charts for the three indices last weekend and you can consult the price levels in the Archives if you need to, since we'll concentrate on technical charts this weekend.

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I should, though, show you what happened with the Mercury Rx cycle. The last two of them are marked with the black verticals. We know from Pollyanna's long-range planetary price chart that there's a strong barrier around 1413 ... I pointed out a couple of weeks ago the index has a habit of travelling within Mercurial corridors (the pink lines on the chart above) and last week's prices were contained by a Mercury line.

And price is also knocking its head against an overhead trend channel line.

So, breakout to higher prices does seem unlikely. It's not something we'd expect. However, the technical conditions of the two Bi-BB charts highlight the potential for the unexpected and unlikely to actually occur - and give price targets if it does occur.


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That potential is also endorsed by another version of a 500 daily chart. I've been chatting recently about the tendency of this index to run in 30 calendar day cycles once a trend enters cyclical mode. Allowing just a little leniency, we had - starting from the left - a 30 day high-to-high; a 60-day high-to-low; and then two highs coming in on the next 30 and 60 day markers, leaving the possibility that this rally from the early June low could run out to a total of 90 days.

We also discussed the importance of the 1391 level and how it would be rejected strongly on the first hit of that "last low before the high" price.

However, just as with the long-range chart earlier and the breaking of the 1370 August 2007 spike down price, a decisive second penetration of the barrier opens up a stronger chance of challenging the old highs.

There's not much point in going over the same ground with other indices this weekend. Breakout seems illogical; more central bank goosing of the stock markets at these levels seems mad beyond belief. These price levels were deemed to be irrational when times were good. At a time of massive and still-growing debt, unemployment levels at critical highs, and banks facing the risk of collapse, it's a party that should end badly. Very badly.

The reality check could arrive this week with the Venus and Mars aspects.

Safe trading - RA
Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012

Saturday, August 4, 2012

The end of the spurt-and-reverse cycle

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 6, 2012
Mercury returns to Direct motion in the coming week, which will help put a stop to the spurt-and-reverse activity of the past few weeks.

According to research by Kaye Shinker, the Dow Jones Industrials have a distinct tendency to end the Mercury Rx period with prices back within 1% of where they started the cycle.

 If that tendency plays out, it should put the SP500 somewhere between 1370 and 1350 on Wednesday.

Last weekend, we pondered why the Fed would goose markets with Wall Street back in the bubble zone which marked the 1999-2000 and 2007 "irrational exuberance" peaking range ... and the chances of Mario Draghi having to revisit his hairy-chested "whatever it takes" bravado of the week before.

SuperMario, who presided over the Bank of Italy while the country was going bankrupt, went from pit bull to lapdog within a week as all his "will act" talk made the transition to "may consider" and a dozen other weak phrases.

The markets tanked ... and then turned again just as suddenly, purportedly on good hiring numbers in the USA (numbers which will, like MachoMario, have to be revisited when Mercury goes Direct).

Since the Mercury Rx cycle started in mid-July, the "trend" has reversed every few days. Mercury Direct should put us back on a more stable course - one way, or the other.

Let's begin this weekend by reviewing where we are within the SP500's long-range planetary prices. Firstly, trace the grey Neptune marked with 1411 and the orange Node line marked with 1319 from the current price bar back to the top left of the chart.

During the 2007 topping process, these two planetary lines underscored the final stages of the Bull run. For the moment, the Neptune barrier continues to provide formidable resistance.

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We may be talking about faraway planets, but there's no rocket science involved with the price targets. Last month found support at the Node line and this month, so far, the dark blue Pluto line is providing that function - with Neptune as the upside barrier.

Using a weekly Bi-BB chart (below), we get a reasonably similar view from a purely technical viewpoint. For a few weeks, the upside was contained by the middle band. The breakthrough then opened the first layer of the upper tier as a target - and it has been met. IF we get a weekly close inside the higher layer, there's a strong chance Pollyanna will make a new High.

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On a technical basis, the chart suggests a new High is probable, rather than merely possible. The fast MACD looks healthy enough ... and the candlesticks are leaving long tails, indicating Bullish buyers step in just as the Bearish crowd threatens to take command.

The MACD readings on the daily chart are not quite as healthy and the height of the histograms continues to decline with each new peak in the price. I mentioned last weekend that the price of the last low before the high - 1391 - should provide strong resistance the first time it was hit.

Monday hit that level and produced a strong reaction downwards, which Friday's strong rally reversed, regaining all of the losses and then some.

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We've been chatting recently about Pollyanna's tendency to run in cyclical timeframes linked to divisions of 30 calendar days, which are the dashed blue verticals on the chart above. Starting from the high price on April 2, we can see the index declined 60 days ... and then rose for 60 days into the peak early last week.

But, now we have a new peak and have to ask the question whether, despite the Bradley Model turn date and the astrological expectations of a Bear wave developing, the index is in a longer-running cycle that might last for 90 days.

Well, the targets for that scenario are clearly spelled out on Pollyanna's long-range planetary chart - or by the technical markers on the Bi-BB template. And it all depends on whether we get treated to another spurt-and-reverse Mercury Rx move before the planet goes Direct again midweek.

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The FTSE, too, perked up on Friday after being disappointed by a Bundesbank-chastened Draghi on Thursday. The oscillators weren't as giddy about the move as price was. The index is trying to catch yet another ride higher along the angle of the rising Sun line which kicked into gear in early June.

I suspect it's going to fail ... but, just in case ...

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The FTSE Weekly Planets chart is shown above - with the upside target marked if price can hold the 5756 Saturn line. As with the 500, the fast MACD is showing no warnings of a imminent demise.

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I mentioned over the past couple of weekends the ASX200's long-term love affair with Neptune price lines. She not only finally made kissy/smoochy with the line last week, but ran to a false break above Saturn, before settling back into Neptune's embrace. And, once again, no warning klaxons from the MACD.

So, we have a situation where the normal Mercury Rx mode should bring prices down again by midweek, but the technical picture across three indices points towards further intermediate gains and the potential for a retest of last year's Highs.

Apart from Merc's change of direction, a 3Q Moon, and a Venus sign change accompanied by a trine to Neptune, there's not much happening with The Spooky Stuff in the coming week.

There will, however, be a major fireworks show the following week when the New Moon concides with Venus setting off the Uranus/Pluto square and Mars conjuncting Saturn ... when forward "drive" runs into a brick wall.

Safe trading - RA
Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012