Within mere points of a possible turn south

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning June 9,  2014 

Long story short ... Pollyanna and the DAX are now smooching long-range planetary lines likely to halt the rally.

We'll take a look at the relevant charts in a moment, but first spend a moment or two on the Spooky Stuff.

This weekend, the little mischief maker, Mercury, turns retrograde for the rest of the month, so it's time for the usual warnings.

Firstly, double-check everything you do and take a few extra seconds to concentrate on whether you're about to do what you actually intended to do. Expect technical signals to fail and data to go awry. And remember that a trend which starts around the Rx date is prone to reversal midway through the cycle (which ends in early July).

Midweek the Moon goes into Sagittarius for a couple of days. That usually means wide-range days when either the fear or the optimism is unduly exaggerated.

The end of the week brings the normally negative period of a Full Moon, along with a Venus opposed to Saturn aspect on the same day. And next Saturday, Mars will square Pluto ... the war drums start sounding again.

This weekend's edition will be brief, since we'll concentrate on Pollyanna, the SP500, and Germany's DAX ... both of which ended last week in a lip-lock with long-range planetary price levels which should, in a normal world, cause a major stall in the rally.

It's not, of course, a normal world. Mario Draghi has finally done what he's been hinting at for a year ... charging to put money in the bank.

For the moment it applies only to banks lodging money with the European Central Bank. But that's only the first step. The ultimate aim of the banksters is to charge people for keeping money in the bank.

The velocity of money ... the number of times the same dollar changes hands ... has slowed to a crippled crawl. In effect, when times are good, people are confident of the future and they spend. So, every dollar changes hands very quickly. When people are worried, they don't spend, they hoard ... and the velocity of money slows down.

Draghi has finally taken the first step, ostensibly to force banks to start lending, rather than parking their money in central vaults. He has opened the door for banks to start charging customers to make deposits, rather than paying even meagre interest on those deposits.

Nevermind. We've been looking recently at some of my long-range planetary price charts and I suggested there were certain key levels which "should" be hit.

The two leading Western indices are now there, short of the marks by only a few dollars. Let's look first at the 500. Polly just blew past a primary Saturn priced near 1930 on the weekly charts and is now close to hitting a Node line at 1952.

I've circled her "normal" reaction to hitting these Node levels in the past. They tend to cause a stall or a sharp drop.

The price range from 1952 to 2006 represents a long-range Node "zone" and there are a couple of major Mars price levels within that zone. The alternative to a downturn is a period of range-trading within the zone.

The next chart is for Germany's DAX, which hit a new peak at 10,013.69 on Thursday, only a couple of points away from one of the targets I showed in Forecast 2014. This is a major Pluto level; the DAX is hitting it with growing divergence in the long-range Big Bird oscillator.

The next chart is pure favoritism. It's my home index, the ASX200 ... and still the index can't stay north of the weekly Saturn barrier, priced at 5519 for the coming week.

And, finally for this weekend, a quick look at gold's daily. I indicated last weekend it was at, or close to, a potential bounce level since price had come down to a horizontal Pluto level and could get some help from a rising, secondary Sun line. And that's what we have ... for the moment!

How long the bounce will last I have no idea. Another breakdown is probably even more likely than a northbound breakout, simply because of the technical damage done during the recent price drop.

I suppose we could waffle at length about gold. About how the first small load of gold returned to Germany had the wrong stamps on it. Y'see the gold stored at Fort Knox ... rolling around the floor laughing ... and in New York is hallmarked with the owner's brand and it's exactly those bars which are supposed to be returned to them.

It's not what Germany actually got back. According to other reports, vast numbers of big gold bars, carrying various central bank hallmarks, are being put through the Swiss smelters ... and are coming out the other end stamped with Chinese hallmarks.

In fact, if some reports are credible, China is accumulating more physical gold than the total annual supply from all the world's mines. If that's true, there's only one explanation ... they're stockpiling "old gold". Yes, the stuff that's supposed to be sitting in the New York and London vaults.

I guess that means, for us, that when the banks start imposing their SuperMario levy, it's not going to be 0.15%.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014


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Ben down, Mario to come

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning September, 3 2012

Like addicts slobbering for their next fix, markets got a pop from a new dose of Ben-zedrine ... and now wait for a Super Mario stimulus shot later this coming week.

There's something not quite right about free market capitalists constantly begging for government bail-outs to prop-up their stocks.

It's almost, but not quite, as weird as the academic report which surfaced in the USA late last week blaming the Chinese for the 2008 crash.

Apparently, it's all the fault of the Commie Yellow Peril who - gasp*shock*horror - SAVED their money. You can find the full article here - http://www.cnbc.com/id/48814165 - and you might be shocked to know the fool, Greenspan, had nothing to do with low interest rates. All America's problems were caused by coolies who, after centuries of being ruled by mad despots, had the temerity to want some safety for the money they were beginning to accumulate.

As usual, there's a heavy Teflon gloss slopped across the criminal behaviour of the banks and a whole new meaning applied to The Butterfly Effect, when opening a savings account in Shanghai sends Wall Street into a death dive.

I await patiently new USA think tank reports blaming actual Chinese butterflies for flooding Nawlins, as part of some evil Politburo plan to disrupt oil production in the Gulf.

Okay. August is gone and we enter September, historically the worst month for Wall Street. The trading month begins there with markets closed for Labor Day as everyone enjoys the end of the Summer holiday season ... still digesting Ben's blabbering and waiting to see if the two Roman Marios can overturn the last couple of thousand years and score a win over Germania.

The Spooky Stuff is picking up again and there are some astrological aspects in the coming week which have a track record of turning markets - Venus square Saturn on Monday and the Sun square Jupiter on Friday.

Let's look at some charts.

Now, as an homage to the actor who used to make movies with an orangutan and who backed Romney last week, we could call this one: The Do Yuh Feel Lucky, Punk? chart ...

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Well, do yuh? This is the SP500's long-range Monthly. I find it hard to believe even Alan Greenspan would be looking to "stimulate" stock markets with prices at current levels. Still, we need to be wary. After all, there's a chance Apple factory workers will stop killing themselves and open savings accounts.

The marginal new Highs for August did not find support from the short and medium-term oscillators (green and red). However, while the long-range Canary has started rolling over on weekly charts, pointing to the risk of an intermediate decline underway, there is no clear negative divergence signal yet from the long-range Canary.

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The chart above is Pollyanna's long-range planetary chart, with price rises continuing to be capped by the Neptune line around 1411.

And, below, is Polly's Weekly Planets chart, showing a tighter combination of planetary barriers at that level, as well as the intermediate targets for breakout or breakdown

The index's weekly Bi-BB chart shows price continues to hold within the upper tier, though it is maintaining the position with significantly decreasing support from the fast MACD, especially the histogram peaks which have been falling away since the bounceback a year ago.

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We were alterted a couple of weekends ago to the potential for a decline, when I pointed out London's FTSE was about to run into a downtrending Sun/Mercury planetary influence which had caused drops in the past.

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So far, the price of the FTSE has been following the expected route. The index would need a hard-down day on Monday to stay strongly under that influence. That seems an unlikely outcome, unless something untoward happens over the weekend. There is some mild positive divergence in the short and medium-term oscillators (green and red) - and the FTSE is at a Node level which acted as Resistance in July and has some potential now to turn into at least temporary Support.

The FTSE Weekly Planets chart, showing the price targets, is below.

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India's Nifty 50 is the next chart, below.

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And our final chart for this weekend is for the ASX200 and is one from my private set of charts I haven't shown you before. I have shown you charts in the past indicating the ASX tends to be a Neptunian index for long-range moves, with some influence from Uranus ... they're the grey and yellow horizontals on the chart below.

The red lines are Mars. Like Pollyanna, Auntie tends to travel between Uranus/Neptune outposts within Martian channels. It's entirely possible to draw these charts with simple, technical Support and Resistance lines ... and using trendlines to replace the Marshuns.

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As y'can see, the index has a track record of stopping-and-turning, or at least stalling, when it runs into this particular set of planetary lines. For the week ahead, we can see there'll be a triple effect in play around 4400 on the topside ... and probably not a lot further to drop before Support comes into play.

As we all wait to see if Draghi can make the Bundesbank blink.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012

The end of the spurt-and-reverse cycle

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 6, 2012
Mercury returns to Direct motion in the coming week, which will help put a stop to the spurt-and-reverse activity of the past few weeks.

According to research by Kaye Shinker, the Dow Jones Industrials have a distinct tendency to end the Mercury Rx period with prices back within 1% of where they started the cycle.

 If that tendency plays out, it should put the SP500 somewhere between 1370 and 1350 on Wednesday.

Last weekend, we pondered why the Fed would goose markets with Wall Street back in the bubble zone which marked the 1999-2000 and 2007 "irrational exuberance" peaking range ... and the chances of Mario Draghi having to revisit his hairy-chested "whatever it takes" bravado of the week before.

SuperMario, who presided over the Bank of Italy while the country was going bankrupt, went from pit bull to lapdog within a week as all his "will act" talk made the transition to "may consider" and a dozen other weak phrases.

The markets tanked ... and then turned again just as suddenly, purportedly on good hiring numbers in the USA (numbers which will, like MachoMario, have to be revisited when Mercury goes Direct).

Since the Mercury Rx cycle started in mid-July, the "trend" has reversed every few days. Mercury Direct should put us back on a more stable course - one way, or the other.

Let's begin this weekend by reviewing where we are within the SP500's long-range planetary prices. Firstly, trace the grey Neptune marked with 1411 and the orange Node line marked with 1319 from the current price bar back to the top left of the chart.

During the 2007 topping process, these two planetary lines underscored the final stages of the Bull run. For the moment, the Neptune barrier continues to provide formidable resistance.

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We may be talking about faraway planets, but there's no rocket science involved with the price targets. Last month found support at the Node line and this month, so far, the dark blue Pluto line is providing that function - with Neptune as the upside barrier.

Using a weekly Bi-BB chart (below), we get a reasonably similar view from a purely technical viewpoint. For a few weeks, the upside was contained by the middle band. The breakthrough then opened the first layer of the upper tier as a target - and it has been met. IF we get a weekly close inside the higher layer, there's a strong chance Pollyanna will make a new High.

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On a technical basis, the chart suggests a new High is probable, rather than merely possible. The fast MACD looks healthy enough ... and the candlesticks are leaving long tails, indicating Bullish buyers step in just as the Bearish crowd threatens to take command.

The MACD readings on the daily chart are not quite as healthy and the height of the histograms continues to decline with each new peak in the price. I mentioned last weekend that the price of the last low before the high - 1391 - should provide strong resistance the first time it was hit.

Monday hit that level and produced a strong reaction downwards, which Friday's strong rally reversed, regaining all of the losses and then some.

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We've been chatting recently about Pollyanna's tendency to run in cyclical timeframes linked to divisions of 30 calendar days, which are the dashed blue verticals on the chart above. Starting from the high price on April 2, we can see the index declined 60 days ... and then rose for 60 days into the peak early last week.

But, now we have a new peak and have to ask the question whether, despite the Bradley Model turn date and the astrological expectations of a Bear wave developing, the index is in a longer-running cycle that might last for 90 days.

Well, the targets for that scenario are clearly spelled out on Pollyanna's long-range planetary chart - or by the technical markers on the Bi-BB template. And it all depends on whether we get treated to another spurt-and-reverse Mercury Rx move before the planet goes Direct again midweek.

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The FTSE, too, perked up on Friday after being disappointed by a Bundesbank-chastened Draghi on Thursday. The oscillators weren't as giddy about the move as price was. The index is trying to catch yet another ride higher along the angle of the rising Sun line which kicked into gear in early June.

I suspect it's going to fail ... but, just in case ...

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The FTSE Weekly Planets chart is shown above - with the upside target marked if price can hold the 5756 Saturn line. As with the 500, the fast MACD is showing no warnings of a imminent demise.

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I mentioned over the past couple of weekends the ASX200's long-term love affair with Neptune price lines. She not only finally made kissy/smoochy with the line last week, but ran to a false break above Saturn, before settling back into Neptune's embrace. And, once again, no warning klaxons from the MACD.

So, we have a situation where the normal Mercury Rx mode should bring prices down again by midweek, but the technical picture across three indices points towards further intermediate gains and the potential for a retest of last year's Highs.

Apart from Merc's change of direction, a 3Q Moon, and a Venus sign change accompanied by a trine to Neptune, there's not much happening with The Spooky Stuff in the coming week.

There will, however, be a major fireworks show the following week when the New Moon concides with Venus setting off the Uranus/Pluto square and Mars conjuncting Saturn ... when forward "drive" runs into a brick wall.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012

Why would the Fed goose markets now?

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning July 30, 2012
The strange disconnect between Wall Street and most other major world indices continues.

Last week's two-day surge raised the SP500 and DJI back within the range of the two most significant bubble tops in modern history. Yet, the Street is convinced that in the coming week, both the FOMC and the ECB will announce new stimulus measures.

Astrologically, the main aspects in play over the coming week fall into the "beneficial" category - the Sun trines Uranus and sextiles Jupiter and Venus will trine Saturn.

It also brings us up on a major Bradley Model turn window - and is halfway through the Mercury Retrograde cycle, where spurt-and-reverse tendencies come into effect.

I'll update the Mercury and Bradley charts in a few minutes.

It's interesting that the freefall in the early part of the week was suddenly reversed by Mario Draghi promising to do "whatever it takes" to backstop the Euro - and, more broadly, the whole European financial system. It is very much a modern banker's solution and is probably no surprise coming from a former Goldmans executive.

But, usually, statements made and policies outlined while Mercury is Rx, tend to have to be revisited once the planet resumes Direct motion.

In any case, one wonders exactly why the US Federal Reserve, in particular, would act now with further monetary easing.

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The chart above is a monthly of the SP500, showing the 1999-2000 and 2007 "bubble" tops - the peak of the Nasdaq boom and the height of the CDO madness. Last week's spurt put the index back into bubble territory ... and the "logic" on the streets is now not so much that the good times will roll forever, it's that economies are so bad, central banks will print more money.

It seems like a strange place for central banks to prop up the stock markets. Logic would seem to dictate they don't actually need to prop up markets already back in Bubbleville.

The red, intermediate-range oscillator displayed negative divergence at the last price peak and seems set to give another instance of it. However, the state of the long-range (blue) oscillator confirmed that previous peak - what I pointed out earlier in the year as being the elephant in the room which indicated the rally would run longer-and-stronger that the astrological expectations forecast.


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 An update of the Bradley Model chart is next, showing the spurt higher into the next major turn date predicted to occur in this timeframe, before markets go into a series of waterfall declines.

And a couple of weekends ago, I showed you the tendency of the 500 to do a spurt-and-reverse act during those periods when Mercury goes Retrograde - remarking the index has a tendency to travel within defined Mercurial corridors.

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Last week, the index bottomed with a touch of the downside level of the current corridor, before bouncing strongly over Thursday and Friday to hit the top of the range. Breakout from that corridor, would target the dotted Mercury line in the early 1400s.

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And that price level is also highlighted on the 500's long-range planetary price chart, above.



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 Probably the key technical price level to watch is $1391, which is the last low before the high, and normally produces a strong reversal the first time it's touched again. I've mentioned recently the tendency of the 500 to move in divisions of 30-day cycles. The next "timing" in that cycle arrives on Tuesday.

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Last weekend, I indicated the ASX200 was running into a downtrending Sun line that was likely to have an impact - the reverse of the rising Sun line chart we've followed for several weeks on the FTSE. The expected impact did have an effect in sending the 200 south for the first part of the week before the Draghi bounce. It looks as if she will yet make at least a kissy/smoochy with the grey Neptune line after all.

The next chart is a weekly of the ASX200, showing the target levels in Fibonacci levels, rather than planetary prices.

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Turning to the FTSE ...

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Before showing the ASX about to fall under the influence of a falling Sun line last weekend, I also remarked we had seen the first close below the rising Sun line on the FTSE planets chart we'd been looking at since early June.

The index dropped dramatically down to the horizontal planetary levels which have been shown many times on the FTSE's Weekly Planets chart - proving yet again those weekly planet charts provide excellent Entry and Exit levels for short and medium trades.
Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012