Saturday, August 13, 2011

Using Daily Aspect Calendars to Time Intraday Trades

by Randall Ashbourne, author of  The Idiot and the Moon
August 2011  posted by Marley

Readers have asked me if I day trade - and the answer is: Yes, sometimes. I prefer swing trading, which I would define as a larger price move over a longer timeframe than intraday.

Sometimes, that’s short-term (a few days), intermediate (a few weeks), or long-term (months or more).

In truth, all trades are swing trades; it simply depends on whether one is following The Idiot (as explained in my e-book titled, The Idiot and The Moon, Compleat and Utter Lunatic Idiot's Guide to Trading Stocks, on a monthly, weekly, daily, or one-hour chart.

Moon phase trades are swing trades; trying to capitalise on the statistical tendency of markets to change direction at the New Moon, Full Moon and First and Third quarter dates.

But, the Moon’s effect on “mood” is not confined simply to those recurring phases every 28 days. Markets will move according to the Moon’s daily aspects to other planets and, even more importantly, according to the sign it’s currently traversing.

To make full use of these daily aspects, it’s necessary to know at least a little something about astrological symbolism. It doesn’t have to be a lot! Some fairly basic knowledge could be useful in helping to time trades better, so I’ll try to explain some of it here in relatively simple terms.

My friends Kaye Shinker and Marlene Pfeifle, at astrologicalinvesting.com, provide a very useful service once a month - calendars showing the exact time of aspects between the planets and the daily aspects and sign changes of la Lune, for New York, London and Sydney.

They can be found here on the blog at: http://astrologicalinvesting.blogspot.com/search/label/calendar (click the link to view this month's calendars)

To use the information effectively, you first have to know the direction of the current trend - and that’s something The Idiot, in my e-book, defines very well.

You could also incorporate the information into your Moon Trading. (Read my article, The Moods of the Moon - Trading the Mood Swings of the Monthly Lunar Cycle )

And as I try to stress in my book, it’s just as important to know when NOT to trade, or to at least adjust one’s Time and Price expectations, as it is to hold one’s nerve and be prepared for the good moves when they come. All of this is detailed in the final chapter - how to judge the length of Time phases and get ready for the fast-moving Price phases.

Of course, these Time and Price phases occur over all timeframes - and they have a great deal to do with The Moods of The Moon, even in its daily travels.

Each month, the Moon will travel through each sign of the zodiac - but, it’s not necessarily the Cardinal signs, the “action” signs, which produce the most price action.

There are two signs which tend to produce large movements - Gemini and Sagittarius. When the Moon is in Gemini, there are often big price moves BOTH ways. When it’s in Sagittarius, the big price moves tend to be in one direction.

Now, usually, Sagittarian moves are unduly optimistic. Just occasionally, they will go entirely in the other direction. Jupiter/Sagittarius “exaggerates” - which is very nice if you’re Long and the mood is optimistic. But, just occasionally, it is fear that gets exaggerated.

The Moods of The Moon I must stress have only a minor effect if there are significant aspects occurring between other planets. It’s all about “level”.

Nevertheless, there are times the effects can be exploited quite profitably.

Moon In The Signs

ARIES - The effect is aggressive and the Moon travelling in Aries can start a move in a direction likely to last for a couple of days. Since Uranus is now in Aries, the Moon and Uranus will be in the same section of the sky, a conjunction, and the action is likely to be both sudden and surprising.

TAURUS - This is the most stable sign of the zodiac. Any move which starts under the Arien influence can be expected to consolidate for a day or two, or at least slow down. Since Jupiter is currently in the early part of Taurus, the Moon and Jupiter will be conjunct and, rather than slow down, the symbolism points towards steady, solid rises.

GEMINI - Price swings, often wildly and often in both directions, as if the market can’t make up its mind. That’s because it can’t.

CANCER - Is one of the action signs, but it is not openly aggressive in most circumstances. One of the keywords for Cancer is “protective”. The wild price swings of the Gemini period give way, once again, to more consolidation as traders on both sides move to “protect” profits already locked in. At the moment, Mars is in Cancer and the “softness” of the Moon and the hard edge of Mars are not normally energies which lock together smoothly.

LEO - Is the sign of speculation and gambling. Once again, the “mood” shifts and some market will move. It won’t necessarily be stocks, because Leo rules gold.

VIRGO - The most practical sign of the zodiac. The Moon here will want to run through the numbers and see some real evidence that the asking price is actually worth it. It’s a more careful and considered energy at play.

LIBRA - Is the sign of “balance”, which is something rarely achieved. The scales shift back and forth, weighing the speculation of Leo against the critical examination of Virgo, to try to find direction for the next move. Currently, Saturn is in Libra and the Moon conjunct Saturn can be a very negative influence.

SCORPIO - Watch for the potential of Big Money Manipulation. The sign of Sagittarius is coming up and the big boys are trying to position themselves to sting the unwary.

SAGITTARIUS - Usually unduly optimistic. If there’s going to be a sudden spurt, or strong countertrend, this is when it’s most likely to occur. This is not a freight train to step in front of, regardless of whether it’s a rocket ride or a plunge.

CAPRICORN - Prices tend to stabilise again.

AQUARIUS - Always difficult to predict with accuracy - since the sign symbolises the weird, the wacky, the sudden shock or surprise. It is the most Fixed and stubborn of all the signs and has a complete disregard for hard evidence which conflicts with what it wants to do.

PISCES - Gets an undeserved bad rap from many astrologers. In terms of financial astrology, it’s when the lies get told, usually a lot of gilding for the lily … the GDP figures which are boundlessly optimistic.

Moon In Aspect

We already know the key phases of the Moon’s monthly aspects - those it makes with the Sun: the New Moon (conjunction), Full Moon (opposition), First Quarter (square) and Third Quarter (square).

So, it shouldn’t be too hard to come to grips with the terms conjunction, opposition and square - especially for Moon Traders.

These three are “hard” aspects; they imply action.

And so, we just have to adjust the “level” of our thinking to include more than just the Moon’s aspects to the Sun.

The benefic planets are:  Sun, Mercury, Venus, Jupiter and, often, Neptune.

The “malefic” planets are:  Mars, Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto.

So, Lunar aspects of any kind to the first group tend to symbolise a “mood” which encourages higher prices.

Hard aspects, the conjunction, opposition, or square, to any of the other planets tend to suggest a bad mood Moon with the potential for prices to fall.

The “soft” aspects are the sextile and the trine. Of the two, the trine is stronger.

Many astrologers will tell you a trine is a positive aspect. It ain’t necessarily so. It is usually so. But, not always.

A trine means the energy flows smoothly. Now, it’s simply a fact that the atmosphere goes haywire when the Sun is in hard aspect with some other planets. It’s when Solar storms reach their peak. Blah blah.

When the planets are in sextile or trine, energy patterns do not conflict with each other. In the case of the trine the impact tends to be the rapid removal of obstacles.

So, if a market has been struggling - up or down - the arrival of a trine symbolises the timing of when the struggle will stop and direction will be resolved. In fact, the move could already be underway, having started as soon as the previous Moon aspect finished.

In effect, it will mark the end of a Time phase, regardless of the timeframe we're looking at, and the probable start of a Price phase.

Now, I realise this might all seem a bit complicated - especially to those without any training in astrological symbolism. So, I’ll try to state the likely impacts very simply.

The Sun or the Moon making a conjunction, sextile or trine - what I call a kissy-smoochy - to any of the “nice” planets will tend to increase stock prices. Similarly, for Mercury and Venus, who are also fast movers.

If any of them makes a hard aspect to a nasty planet, prices will tend to decline down into the time the aspect is exact.

There are some very important exceptions to this!

If you find that Price simply flatlines as the Moon is heading for a nice aspect with Jupiter, the probability is that markets are in a downtrend and will continue falling as soon as the aspect is finished.

Conversely, if Price does NOT decline, but flatlines, as the Moon makes a conjunction to Saturn, then the probability is that, once the pressure is off, Prices will rise.

This is very, very important to watch for! Moon making kissy-smoochy with Jupiter SHOULD bring on a Price increase. If it does not, then “something else” is happening and one needs to be very careful.

Moon making nasties with Saturn should be DEPRESSING. If it’s not, then “something else” is happening and, if you’re Short, be aware you may need to scramble to cover the Shorts as soon as the aspect is finished.

It may be that, during a confirmed Idiot uptrend, the Moon-Saturn aspect provides the ideal trade re-entry.

And it may also be that, during a confirmed Idiot downtrend, Moon kissy-smoochy Jupiter is the ideal point to get out of your Longs.

For anyone trading intraday, it would be very worthwhile downloading the monthly aspect calendars from AstrologicalInvesting and watching the timing of daily turns.

One more thing. Last weekend, I said I believe most of the populist astrological lore about Mercury Retrograde is nonsense. Actually, I said: bullshit.

Well, I have the same view of Void of Course Moons. I emphatically disagree that “nothing happens” when the Moon is Void of Course (makes no further aspects before leaving the sign it’s in).

In fact, I have really, really, really strong views about both and have a great deal of trouble not launching into a tirade about what I regard as superficial, populist poop.

A Void of Course Moon in stock trading does NOT mean nothing will happen. Now, it IS true that is sometimes the case; Price will simply reach a level and flatline for a few hours.

However, it is my experience that MORE often, markets WILL move, and move substantially, while the Moon is finalising its passage through a sign - and it depends almost entirely on what sign and what the FIRST aspect is the Moon will make when it changes signs.

So, be aware that a Void of Course Moon can ACCELERATE or CHANGE the trend currently in play … and that the acceleration or change will continue until the Moon changes signs.

Those of you who have been told not to trade during Mercury Rx, or VOC Moons, need to know that it is one view.

But, there is another view that is VERY emphatically different. Both Merc Rx and VOC Moons often provide excellent trading opportunities. It’s just that they’re very short-term opportunities.
RA
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The Idiot and The Moon, Compleat and Utter Lunatic Idiot's Guide to Trading Stocks is available in our Astrology Shop.

Read Kaye Shinker's review of Randall Ashbourne's book

On a personal note, Randall shared "The Idiot" techniques with me approximately 6 months ago; since then I have been using these techniques in my trading. Randall's Idiot is nothing less than brilliant! It has been an incredibly accurate and predictive tool for trading and I would never buy another stock without using these techniques. - Marley

One of our members, an experienced trader, recently purchased the book and wrote to Randall saying:"I was either missing the boat or staying too long at the fair. Return on cost of book: $1470 in one week. Thank you for that one. I would have missed it. " 

What others have said:  "You compressed a "da Vinci" style encyclopedia on to the back of a napkin. This book has already become one of my treasures." - HM, Calgary, Canada.

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1 comment:

  1. My students have been experimenting with the ideas Randall proposes. They use the calendars to guess the markets several weeks in advance. A little practice and they begin to like their results. You can try it. Print the calendar. Moon to Jupiter - up Moon to Saturn - down. Then you find the nuances and you apply the ideas of Randalls article.

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