Wall Street's rally: no sign of The Top yet

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning January 13, 2013

The stock market leaders - the Dow, the 500, the Nasdaq and the DAX - all hit their highs on December 31 or January 2.

That was the exact timeframe of the first major Bradley trend change date for 2014.

Prices have been in corrective mode since, but so far there is nothing scary in either the price action or the state of the oscillators.

The coming week is relatively quiet in terms of astrological aspects. Midweek, we get the Full Moon and a Venus square to Mars.

Neither of those normally has enough oomph to produce a major change in the trend.

Gold ended the week making another attempt to break the overhead barrier of a secondary Pluto line, priced around the 1248 level. Those charts are in Forecast 2014. 

The daily Big Bird oscillator has spiked higher, indicating an above-average chance that price will continue its northbound run.

There is another secondary Pluto price line at 1272, but the target for this run is probably higher still - into the 1300s.

The Idiot has now gone to a gold Buy signal on both daily and weekly timeframes. 

Gold bouncing strongly higher while stock prices basically flatline is a somewhat contradictory message, leaving one or the other vulnerable to a sharp drop.

However, for the moment, there are few signs of an imminent plunge in stocks.

The monthly Bi-BB chart of the SP500 is our first chart this weekend. For almost a year price has continually made a touch of the upper band, with breaks above it tending to produce the expected stalling.

And that may be what we have again. Price ended last week exactly where it started the year. The fast MACD endorses the validity of the long-running rally by recording its own new peak in line with the price. The MACD histogram is wavering, but not screeching.

A weekly version of the same technique does indicate the rally is starting to weaken internally. Note there is now a reasonably significant level of negative divergence between the higher prices over the past 3 weeks and the slump in the current state of both the MACD signal line peak and the histograms.

It's not so strong that it rules out an attempt at new highs on Wall Street; simply a warning that the danger of a rollover is growing.

Warm regards, best wishes and ... Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot & The Moon, Forecast 2014

Randall Ashbourne's goal for all traders is to increase profitability while protecting capital  - and again he goes out of his way to help us all do exactly that in his eBook, Forecast 2014. If you have been following the weekend Eye of Ra reports you already know by now that Randall makes what can be a very dry and difficult subject - Financial Astrology - easy to understand, quite interesting, and sometimes amusing! With a witty and wry sense of humor, Randall never holds back, giving us his experienced professional opinion on how the markets are performing. Regardless where the planets are, or what the planets are "doing", we have a step-by-step, page by page, directory of what we need to know in order to make money each month.  I've described his book, The Idiot and The Moon as absolutely brilliant, and his latest book, The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014 is the perfect companion for using The Idiot trading technique. In Forecast 2014, you will learn The broad astrological themes in play for the year ahead   Key dates in order to identify short-term trend changes How the Bradley Model performed during 2013, and the major and minor turn dates for 2014   How Moon Trading performed for various international indices during 2013, and the dates for lunar phase trading in 2014   How The Idiot...the central character of The Idiot and The Moon has performed in the past. "It's never too late to realise The Idiot may be the best stock advisor we'll ever meet." R. Ashbourne Forecast 2014 chapters include 2014 ... and let slip the dogs of war   Jupiter Square Uranus ... and the danger of déjà vu   Mars ... the mover of markets   The Bradley Model - major and minor trend change dates for 2014     The Moods of the Moon - Lunar phase trading performance during 2013    Month by Month - monthly astrological transits in time map form     Technical conditions and planetary price targets Randall's analysis is simple, yet succinct - helping us understand complicated analysis while describing a very colorful world of markets where "Old Gods Rule".  Click to Purchase Randall Ashbourne's eBook, The Idiot &; The Moon, FORECAST 2014- This e-Book is password protected. It can be printed and also read on your computer or an electronic reading device that is capable of reading password protected PDF files. A note to our members at astrologicalinvesting.com:  Randall's World At large reports from years past are still in our archives; if you care to check them out you will be impressed with how his style of writing makes difficult and dry subjects easy to understand and fun to read.  I am thrilled to have Randall as my associate. Marlene Pfeifle , CAP, NCGR I www.astrologicalinvesting.com *** Click to Purchase Randall Ashbourne's eBook, The Idiot and The Moon - This e-Book is password and print protected. It is published in the popular PDF format, and you can download it for reading on your computer. You will be able to highlight key sections or add "sticky notes". You can also copy the file into your iTunes library, which will allow reading on your iPad or similar device.

Gold ... Gone in 60 seconds

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning October 7, 2013

Gold ... Gone in 60 seconds

Actually, it took a little longer than 60 seconds ... but not much longer.

In the early hours of the morning early last week, with most of Europe and the Americas asleep and with Asia just starting to stir, a mysterious "someone" dumped 800,000 ounces of gold contracts.

In the following few minutes, with human traders asleep and only the big boyz' computers keeping watch, the price of gold slumped. 

I'll show you the chart of what happened in a moment. I suppose there are a couple of options for why it happened.

Maybe a real, living version of Uncle Scrooge woke up suddenly, off his Prozac, and had a panic attack.

Perhaps, after the last concerted attack on the gold price, the guardians of gold deposits realised they're still hundreds of tonnes short of "finding" Germany's gold.

You know, the stuff that's supposed to be stored in Fort Knox, but which Germany was told it can't actually have back for another 7 years.

Whatever the reason, it does highlight that trading gold continues to be highly dangerous in the current climate.

One doesn't wish to become too embroiled in conspiracy theories. But seriously, who dumps that much gold at 2am unless they really want to dramatically drive down the price?

Here's a 5-minute chart of greenback gold, showing what happened. In mere minutes, gold tumbled from the 1330s to the 1280s. A lot of traders woke up that morning to find their Long gold positions had been wiped out as the plunge targeted - and triggered - their loss stops.

The bounceback has been reasonably strong, which is little comfort to those who had their profits stolen by the predawn attack, but the simple fact of the charts is that it continues to leave gold in a dangerous position.

Greenback gold remains locked in the mid-range of a downtrend channel, as we can see from the weekly chart below. The state of the 3 Canaries in the oscillator panel continues to improve.

But the gold market remains dangerous - and the swings are even wilder on individual gold mining shares.

The daily chart is below and we can see the attack forced gold out of its short-term, rising trend channel, leaving the red line, near-term downtrend angle intact.

Unfortunately, even breaking out above that near-term downtrend angle still leaves a lot of other, overhead resistance - as we can see from the next chart.

The reality is simple. Gold is still in a downtrend; attempts to "get in early" for the next rally phase leave ordinary traders vulnerable to being forced out of their positions at a loss while the big boyz' computers manipulate out-of-hours trading.

In terms of stock markets ...

We now have a small bounce into the New Moon and a potential, month-long Bradley Model trend change date last Friday or on Monday.

Obsessed with the daily squiggles, it's easy to lose touch with what is really going on. In late July, I ventured the opinion that markets were probably within a long-range topping process and that there was little upside left - and a lot of potential downside.

Let's revisit that chart to see what has happened since. Not much! I said at the time this chart was published: "But, the maximum reach for the final minor wave up in this rising leg is probably only 1.6% away. The peak of the entire post-2009 rally may be only 4.7% away."

These are long-range planetary price lines for Pollyanna, the SP500. The 1719 Pluto level was broken only briefly and marginally. You'll note this rally began last year with a downside break, of similar brief time and magnitude, of the Pluto level near 1360.

We've been discussing the strong build-up of negative divergence on weekly charts. So, at this stage, I still lean towards more chance of further downside in the next few weeks.

I'll try, next weekend, to update some Weekly Planets charts for European and Asian indices.

The ASX200 continues to hit the targets quite precisely.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

Libran "balance" can be very chaotic!

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning Sept, 30, 2013

Sometimes, the velvet glove just puts a pretty face on the iron fist.

We need to talk about The Spooky Stuff this weekend ... because there's a surprising amount of danger involved.

The Sun is now travelling through Libra and will be joined by the Moon late this week for a New Moon, statistically a high point in market prices.

The New Moon is closely opposed to Uranus and square to Pluto, again setting off the tension we've discussed at length over the past 2 years.

Libra is supposed to be one of the really nice signs of the zodiac. Symbolically, it represents a drive for equity, harmony, fairness, balance and diplomacy. Supposed to be. Sometimes, the velvet glove just puts a pretty face on the iron fist.

Which is precisely what we're seeing again as the Obama White House engages in another battle about debt with the Republican Congress.

Instead of playing nice with each other we see yet more nuances of the Uranus/Pluto square, which pits demands for radical reform against entrenched defence of the status quo. And, perhaps typical of Libra, both sides are on ... both sides.

Obama is determined to get radical reform of healthcare, while raising the debt ceiling to keep the Government functioning; Republicans want radical reform of spending and the scrapping of the healthcare reforms.

All that aside, past performance suggests the Sun travelling through Libra is nearly always a volatile time for the stock market.

The chart below shows the performance of Wall Street's SP500 since the late 1990s, with the red bars depicting the Sun's annual move through Libra.

Libra is one of the Cardinal signs; an action sign. And it does tend to produce some very strong action ... and not much "balance".

There are 14 Libran Sun periods on the chart before the current one ... 9 of them produced significant lows, 2 produced significant highs. That's 11 of the 14 which turned the markets in a very significant way.

With odds like that, it's probably not a good time to nod off. Even the three periods which did not occur with a high or low produced a lot of action ... a strong rally in all three cases.

Our next chart is Pollyanna's New Moon/Full Moon chart. We discussed the implications of this channel last weekend because of the rarity of making a Full Moon price high.

New Moons are the thick red dotted bars (statistical high) and Full Moons are the thick blue bars. Check back through the performance and we can see it's unusual for the SP500 to drop directly into the New Moon. The tendency is to at least bounce for the few days into the NM date; Friday of this coming week.

Remember, too, that we have a Bradley Model trend change date next weekend. Check the Archives for last weekend's edition if you missed it.

You'll notice on the New Moon chart that Polly closed Friday with another visit to the red parallel of the channel she'd been following for most of the year.

It was also a gap-filling, Fibonacci Retracement level of the post-June rally. I indicated early in the year I was starting to keep manual charts for Pollyanna because of the inaccuracy (total lies) of the official figures from the NYSE.

As you can see, the real Opening figures show she's been gapping all over the place for the past few months. While contact with a supportive FiboRx level and the rising trendlines indicates the potential to show a "normal" bounce into the New Moon on Friday (and the Bradley date), there are two very obvious gaps crying to be filled ... the black line at 1672.40 and another down at 1593.79.

Now let's turn our attention to where we are in the bigger picture. Last weekend, I showed a monthly version of the following weekly channel chart and mentioned Big Bird on that chart was only just starting to show signs of negative divergence.

If we apply a general rule of normalcy ... and I emphasised just how normal that monthly chart was ... we cannot transform from Bull to Bear without clearcut divergence in the monthly Big Bird.

But, as I've said, weekly Big Bird has fallen off his perch and is squarking horribly. It's not screaming Bear! ... but it is giving increasingly shrill warning signs of another multi-week correction.

While the chart above uses the simple trendline/channel techniques outlined in The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon, we can also use Andrew's Pitchforks to get a good idea of where we are - and some sense of where we might be going.

The chart below shows both the long-range rising fork and the potential for more relatively near-term declines. Just "eyeball" the chart for the big picture overview.

Because once we see the broad picture, it's easier to spot exactly where we are within the broader context.

We can see Miss Polly topped out two weeks ago with a touch of the central blue tyne of the rising, long-range fork. It was also the place where the last Fibonacci outlier of the falling fork came into play.

We don't really need ALL of these methods. Too many cooks spoil the broth; too many charts befuddle the brain. Still, we see Polly ended the week with a touch of one of the important internal Fibonacci lines of the rising fork.

So, what we seem to have is the potential for what would be a normal New Moon bounce this week. But we also have an intermediate-range Big Bird which is decidedly unhappy with the state of affairs and disagrees very, very strongly with the legitimacy of the recent price rises

We have a significant, month-long Bradley trend change indicated. And we have the potential for the Libran Sun to cause chaos and sharp price moves. Caution, anyone?

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

Putting a number on the sign of the Bear

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning Sept, 22, 2013

..once that line is broken....

For months, various Fed heads have seized almost every opportunity to talk about tapering.

Until last week, when Benny the Benificent did his best Huck Finn impression: Aww, shucks. We wuz just pulling yuh leg.

In plain-speak the message was clear: The American economy is still so deeply in the mire, Ben can't pull the plug on his bubble bath without sending Wall Street down the gurgler.

But Benny is winding-up his term and his blow-up Bull run may well expire with him. The truth is the long-range technical conditions are finally starting to sag.

They are not yet at the stage where the warning sirens are so loud and dangerous that the inevitable collapse seems imminent. And, probably, few of us doubt that Ben will do whatever it takes to prop-up the markets so it doesn't all fall to pieces while his reputation is on the line.

We'll spend this weekend having another look at the big picture position of the SP500 ... and of gold.

Both markets enjoyed a sudden and stellar jump last week, only for it to fade almost as fast as it arrived. In fact, gold finished the week with absolutely no change from the previous week.

And now that the tapering talk seems to have been dismissed as all a big misunderstanding, the street talk has moved on to the next potential crisis ... the official US debt ceiling.

Enough of all that ...

Let's just ignore the constant chatter and look at the state of the charts ... and maybe even try putting a number on the return of the Bear.

Since the last Bear Low in early 2009, Miss Pollyanna has been rising in a clearly-defined channel. In fact, it's really quite remarkable how steady, sane and well-behaved it has been ... something we totally miss when we're caught up in the news cycle and the daily jerks and squiggles.

What is the single most important thing about the chart below? Simple. Every High has been higher than the previous one; every Low has been higher than the previous one.

That's the classical definition of a Bull market. And it stays a Bull until ... a lower Low is made, followed by a lower High.

For the moment, the line-in-the-sand on the SP500 is 1560. Once that line is broken, the odds will have increased dramatically that Wall Street is back in the grip of a Bear market.

Last year, I had expected that the statistical tendency of markets to top out with Jupiter in Taurus was in play. But, I also kept talking about the "elephant in the room" which threatened to poop on my Bear rug ... the lack of any negative divergence signal from the Big Bird oscillator, the 50CCI.

I marked the two key areas with yellow ovals. While there was negative divergence at the 2007 top, there was none last year. Now, however, we are starting to see the first signs of faltering.

But, the final peak for this Bull run might still be months away. We appear to have had an inversion in the Bradley Model. Purely from an eyeball glance.

I have stressed in the past that it is the dates which are paramount with the Bradley; not the size nor the direction of the change. The model for the year suggested a major change of direction around June 22. And, with the benefit of hindsight, it appears to have marked a clear Low, not a High.

 

 As we can see, market prices had been tending to follow the direction of the plotted Bradley line. Yet, the "peak" of June 22-24 ... which predicted a major trend change lasting all the way through to late December ... seems to have timed, virtually perfectly, the last major low.

I've marked the major trend change dates for the rest of the year on the chart. Let me stress again: IGNORE the direction of the plotted line and pay attention to the dates. We cannot guarantee there won't be another inversion. An ongoing rally ... with weakness in October ... seems to "fit" the expectations. Let's just not get married to the idea.

We may also have had a short-term inversion last week ... a relatively rare Full Moon high. Statistically, Full Moons tend to bring in a near-term Low.

In the chart below, Full Moons are the thick blue bars with a dot; New Moons are the dotted red bars. There was really only one previous Full Moon high ... and price went into a sideways shuffle until the next New Moon started a decline.

Another point of interest shown by the NM-FM chart is the obvious deceleration starting to occur - something which is not at all obvious on the monthly channel chart at the start of this weekend's edition.

We can see how, for the first half of this year, Miss Polly rose steadily within a climbing channel. And then it started to breakdown. So, we added a red parallel below the original channel.

And the next breakdown dropped below that red line ... and last week's jump stalled short of climbing back inside the original channel.

Warning signs.

The direction of the next major move in gold is still unclear. Last week's shenanigans had the EW labellers going nuts. No-one seems absolutely certain whether the big correction is over.

In the most basic terms, greenback gold remains locked within the confines of a downtrend channel. There is definite improvement in all three of the Canaries, including Big Bird who has at least reclaimed the "normalcy" zone between the upper and lower red lines which tend to mark oversold and overbought territory.

For a brief period after the Fed's backflip, gold regained the primary Pluto line at 1360 and looked as if might hold it. Until Friday's slump wiped out the gains and left things exactly where they were at the end of the previous week.

Even Goldman Sachs doesn't know what's happening with gold. Last week caused its two most bearish analysists to have a change of heart. They had been warning of a slump down to around $1000. Now they're back talking about the 1400s again.

Looks like even the great GS believed all the taper talk.

Finally, below, the Weekly Planets chart for my home index, the ASX 200. Again, it's had a strong two-week run north, in contravention of the statistical tendency of the NM-FM phase.

After spending a few weeks trapped by the overhead Neptune in the 5130s, the index broke free and hit the Uranus barrier at 5290. Big Bird grows increasingly sick as the price climbs.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

Revolution and turmoil ... arriving now

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 5, 2013

Implications of the Cardinal T-square

This week kicks off 9 months of turmoil likely to change the face of security, finance, debt and taxes across large parts of the world.

We'll spend most of this edition looking at the implications of a rare Cardinal T-square involving Jupiter, Uranus and Pluto.

I indicated last weekend stock markets were in imminent danger of another fast drop ... but that the "odds" suggested the bounceback had just a little more time to run.

The dangerous technical conditions I outlined last weekend have not improved ... and we are about to lose the positive tendency which normally occurs over the 6 days straddling the end of one month and the start of another, especially when a New Moon coincides with that timing.

If you missed last weekend's edition, click here. I don't have much to add to that this weekend and the price targets shown in that edition are still valid.

What I think is important this weekend is to look at the big picture and discuss the implications of the Cardinal T-square which is about to unfold.

We are now entering a timeframe where volatility is about to go through the roof. And not just in stock markets. 

At various times over the past couple of years, in these weekly reports and the annual forecasts, I have discussed the nature of the Uranus-Pluto square, an aspect which is repeating continually over a multi-year timeframe.

Basically, it is Uranus in Aries making a challenge to Pluto in Capricorn. In really basic terms, it is angry, aggressive demands for reform aimed at overturning the power of what we might generally describe as Plutocrats determined to preserve the status quo.

Plutocrats is a nice term. It basically means government by the wealthy. But it has many more nuances than that.

Let's do some basic astrological symbolism for those of you unfamiliar with just how deep and complex it is. Uranus exemplifies a rebellious energy. It is extraordinarily stubborn. It sometimes displays flashes of pure brilliance, but is, just as often, totally illogical and immune to rational discussion.

Uranus in Aries is an angry, aggressive, even armed rebel. Can we say ... Libya, Tunisia, Syria, Egypt?

Pluto is the Old God of the Underworld. In his domain, he is absolute ruler. Even the other Old Gods stayed well away from Hades. Pluto is also extraordinarily stubborn. He is a dictator without remorse and with a venomous nature.

Pluto in Capricorn is a dictator absolutely determined to keep hold of the reins of power, money, death and taxes and will use all the power at his disposal ... including the aptly-named Plutonium ... to maintain his privileged position.

So this is the general background of an important phase in world history. We see the themes playing out over-and-over.

The revolutions in the Arab world are at the extreme end. Uranus in Aries is quite literally armed revolt against grossly-rich dictatorships.

We have a couple of more polite manifestations in America ... the Tea Party fighting against the cosy deals of the political elite; Occupy Wall Street fighting against the power of the Wall Street "banksters".

Virtually every nation on the planet is openly embroiled in some form of this energy.

Well, we ain't seen nothing yet! But, we're about to!

Enter Jupiter, head honcho of the Old Gods. In astrological symbolism, Jupiter expands and exaggerates. And in a Cardinal T-square the energy explosion is NOT going to be pretty. It's going to be wild and totally over-the-top.

The aspect has three exact-hit timeframes over the next 9 months, starting in the middle of the coming week. Some parts of the world are, quite literally, going to explode.

And this in spite of the fact that Jupiter is exalted in the sign of Cancer and would, normally, be on his best behaviour. But there is another side to Cancer. It is a sign ruled by the Moon and is generally considered to be a bit "soft" and malleable.

Until it is put under pressure. Cancer is a water sign. On land, water naturally takes the path of least resistance ... it goes with the flow. You can pour water into a container of any shape and it will take the shape of the container.

But there is one thing you cannot do with water - compress it. Even with a little bit of pressure, such as a kitchen tap or a garden hose, water doesn't flow so much as it spurts. Increase the pressure even further, and fail to provide an outlet, and the water will break something to get itself free.

Now, imagine that symbolism massively exaggerated ... Jupiter in Cancer. In totally "normal" mode, the benign Head Honcho in the soft, gently-flowing energy of Cancer is a wonderful symbolism.

But, that is not the appropriate imagery. Because we have two extraordinarily stubborn pressure points ... one intent on violent overthrow and reform and the other a powerful cartel of poisonous Plutocrats determined to keep control at all costs.

It is war, at every level. It is the Self-absorbed "rebels" Bradley Manning and Edward Snowden exposing the dirty hidden secrets of government spy agencies. Nothing will convince Manning and Snowden they did the wrong thing. They ARE Uranus in Aries ... the New Age warriors acting on behalf of "the people" to expose the hidden and secretive manipulations of government (Pluto in Capricorn).

Nothing will convince the NSA and the power elite that Manning and Snowden aren't traitors.

It's a bit like the modern "catch-all" grounds for divorce ... irreconcilable differences. That's what we have everywhere, from Egypt and Syria to Spain and Italy, Greece, Mali, the USA. Even Australia. The manifestation of the energy varies from one region to another, from one type of regime to another, but the overall principle remains the same.

And, starting this week for the next 9 months, Jupiter is about to shine the world's biggest spotlight right at that energy. From a Cardinal water sign ... where any attempt to "keep a lid" on things is going to cause a massive rupture in the pipeline.

Do you feel better now, dear?

No? Oh, tsk*tsk. Well, at least you might be a little better prepared to accept some of the explosions that are coming.

Stock markets are not going to get through this period unscathed.

Jupiter squares to Uranus and oppositions to Pluto don't happen very often. And the market does have a tendency to react strongly. On the chart below, Jupiter-Uranus squares are thick red bars; Jupiter-Pluto oppositions are thick blue bars.

Yes. They do, indeed, dramatically raise the danger levels! Jupiter-Uranus squares were in operation at both previous Bull market tops.

And the last time Jupiter-Pluto oppositions were also involved, things got very, very nasty.

Personally, I think Timing is the most difficult part of stock trading to get exactly right - at least reliably and consistently. I much prefer to deal with Price targets, rather than Time targets.

I've been discussing this in general terms in the past couple of editions ... about how Price has to meet exactly with the Time of a major astrological aspect before we can be reasonably sure of a significant trend change.

And we've been discussing how the technical conditions are now starting to shape up - with the probability of another sharp drop in the very near future, but no clear sign yet that The Top is cemented in place.

If we were plunging into this sort of Jupiter/Uranus/Pluto energy, I'd be looking for signs of positive divergence in the oscillators, getting ready to Buy, Buy, Buy.

But, we're not. We're seeing strong potential for exactly the reverse ... high chances of a repeat of the 1999/2000 and 2007 Bull peaks.

Precisely when we hit this peak I cannot even pretend to predict with any degree of certainty at this stage. For the past few weeks, we've been looking at Price levels with a strong chance of marking The Top ... and we'll continue to look at those as conditions develop.

In the Eye of Ra edition for June 3, available in the Archives, I discussed the Bradley Model major trend change dates for this year ... and expressed the view I thought we were very unlikely to go into multi-month crash mode at the trend change date in mid-June.

I said: "Okay. So why am I at odds with the Bradley forecast and why am I not convinced that we have reached THE top of this Bull run?

Because it wouldn't be "normal". And it's true these markets aren't normal. They're hitting these levels because central banks like the US Federal Reserve have been printing money by the *ahem* helicopter load and dropping it into asset purchases to prop up stock markets.

Nevertheless, it is "normal" for markets to undergo a topping PROCESS. It takes Time. We now have what MIGHT be the first sign that The Top is in the process of being put in place."

I think it may be useful to look again at how the Bradley is performing so far. In the chart below, the blue line is the closing price graph of the SP500 and the green is a tweaked version of the Bradley Model trend change indicator. I stress once more that is is the DATES of the Bradley that are important, not the direction nor the amplitude of its swing. You can see that sometimes the blue and green lines peaked or bottomed very close to each other ... and at other times the Bradley made a peak while the index made a low. In other words it was close enough with the date, but it had the direction "wrong".

The next chart shows the normal version of the Bradley plotted against a weekly closing price graph of the 500. Again we see that sometimes the peaks and troughs coincided exactly and at other times the dates were close, but one was making a high while the other was making a low.

And there is our problem! The Bradley predicted a major trend change due for June 22, a Saturday. The 500 made a correction Low on June 24, the Monday trading day after the Bradley date.

The next major Bradley date doesn't arrive until October. Are we going down into it ... or up into it?!

Yes, it's incredibly bloody irritating, isn't it! If only the index had made a clear-cut High on that date.

But, as I said ... it's why I pay much more attention to Price, as determined by planetary lines or Fibonacci retracements and extensions, and to whether my oddly-coloured Canaries are all singing sweetly or twitching on the floor gasping for clean air.

You can see not one of the three Birds in the oscillator panel on the weekly above is happy with Pollyanna's reaching of new all-time Highs.

And you can see the monthly version of the Birds below. The short-range green and medium-range red Birds ARE getting unhappy, but the blue line, the Big Bird, is still in full songbird mode.

So, putting aside all the angst and analysis, I'm not yet hearing anything other than intermediate-range alarm bells. I think there is VERY strong likelihood of another multi-week correction VERY nearby. I am decidedly iffy about the potential for a crash into October, though August/September can be an extraordinarily volatile timeframe. And I lean heavily, at this stage, towards the view that The Top of the Bull run has not yet been seen.

But, to me, the danger signals are starting to go off all over the place ... and Jupiter's looming confrontation with the Arien rebel forces and the Capricornian Plutocrats sets the stage for Star Wars ... The Reality. There are no endearing Ewoks or shaggy Wookies in this story. There is a Death Star. And it is gonna blow. But probably not just yet.

I indicated last weekend that I'd publish some more Bull targets for other indices this weekend, but I'm out of time ... and the markets probably aren't just yet. So, in the next couple of weeks.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013  Sale price 1/2 off!

• Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

• An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

• Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

• Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

And much more...

It is NEVER too late in the year to have this monthly information!
Sale Price $10.00

Bounceback potential in stocks and gold

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning June 24, 2013

World stock indices and the price of gold are hitting, or are very close to hitting, prices which have the potential to produce a bounceback.

However, the situation overall remains dangerous and complex as both technical conditions and the astrological weather deteriorate.

We have a lot to consider this weekend; most especially whether we are now in the early stages of a developing Bear market in stocks.

But we will begin by reviewing where we are in terms of the correction which started, for most indices, late in May. I indicated then that: "There's a strong chance stock markets have gone into correction mode likely to last for several weeks."

For the past few weekends, as we tracked the decline in European and Asian indices, I've also indicated: "At a glance, the correction on Wall Street still seems to be too shallow, in terms of both Price and Time, to be realistic - especially considering the rapid, steep declines in most other major indices."

And I said last weekend: "Jupiter energy takes centre stage this week, when the fires of optimism will be stoked again ... or the fear will be."

We got the fear mode, which finally produced a Wall Street decline which is much more realistic in terms of an intermediate correction.

It now may be nearing bounceback levels. I would prefer to see a low form in the SP500 in the price range from 1570 to 1540, since the decline still seems a little short of the mark.

However, some of the other world indices are starting to display positive divergence sufficient enough to produce at least a bounce.

But the astrological weather ahead in the next few weeks is full of turmoil ... and we have reached a major Bradley Model turn date. I will leave discussion of The Spooky Stuff until later in this edition.

Since it's the easiest to deal with, we'll begin with a quick look at gold. Long-range, it has hit an important Fibonacci Retracement level.

click for larger image

Purely from a technical perspective, this is a normal retracement which, if it holds, keeps the long-term uptrend in a strong position. And it should hold, at least for a relatively strong bounce. The danger is that the long-range oscillator continues its deep dive.

From a planetary perspective, gold has lost the primary Pluto line at 1360 and a primary Sun line - with last week's drop taking price down to a secondary Pluto level. The potential good news is that not only has it now hit a long-range FiboRx price, but it has dipped into Pluto prices with a third instance of positive divergence in the oscillator, though it is mild divergence rather than strident.

click for larger image

There is one other factor which could help to produce a bounce ... Heliocentric Mercury goes into Sagittarius this weekend for a brief visit into early July. It's a position which frequently causes a gold rally. It's not a certainty, but as we can see from the weekly gold price chart below, it does tend to have an impact.

click for larger image

Now let's turn our attention to Pollyanna, the SP500. Well, Polly actually ran screaming from the stage last week for a Chicken Little revival. As usual, Wall Street was more than a day late and a lot more than a dollar short in doing what everyone else was sure of weeks ago.

There is a reason I call the SP500 Pollyanna ... or The Vacuous Troll. However, reality finally dawned that Benign Ben isn't going to drop money from helicopters in QE4ever.

The index finally dropped out of the uptrend channel which has defined the rally since it launched late last year. The drop has taken it down into a potential Full Moon low, which is a statistical tendency. The only thing that concerns me is I'd have preferred to see it hit price levels from 1570 to 1540.

click for larger image

Now let's look at the index in terms of the wider rally channel in play since the bottom of the Bear crash in 2009. While it has lost the intermediate-term rally angle, it came to rest at the end of the week with a little bounce from one of the long-term channel markers.

click for larger image

The bad news is that the long-range Canary, the Big Bird, has dipped below the upper red line in the oscillator panel, which is a clear warning the inner technical strength of the Bull run is starting to fade again.

Now I have been indicating since late May that I thought this was going to be an intermediate-length correction, lasting probably 5 to 8 weeks. There is a chance it is something much worse. However, there are no major warning signs on the monthly charts, so I'm still leaning towards the optimistic outcome ... which is that this is the last major correction before the final, the last, rally of this Bull run.

But ... two things. Firstly, the combined impact of Neptune going Retrograde and last week's Sun-Jupiter conjunction. They're marked on Pollyanna's long-range monthly chart below with blue bars for Sun-Jupiter conjunctions and red bars for Neptune Rx.

And they have a nasty habit of showing up at important turning points!

click for larger image

And we also have the Bradley Model suggesting a major trend change. I dealt with the Bradley Model at some length in the June 3 Eye of Ra (click here), or you can access via the Archives button on my web site. (http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/index.html)

I repeat the warning: It is the dates which are important, not the direction nor the amplititude of the swing.

The next trend change dates for this year don't occur until early September and early October.

click for larger image

Okay, now let's discuss The Spooky Stuff - because the astrological weather is full of change in the next few weeks.

Jupiter changes signs into Cancer this week ... Venus goes into Leo, where she throws off the dowdy house frock, gets a new "do" and piles on the bling ... and Mercury the brat mischief maker goes Retrograde.

We have discussed Mercury Rx many, many times. And here we go again. DOUBLE-check EVERYTHING you do for the next few weeks to make sure you are actually doing what you intended to do!

Before you hit the Buy or Sell button, pause ... consciously think ... double-check that you WANT to Buy or Sell. You have a stronger than usual chance of hitting the wrong button. But ... ONLY if you're being inattentive! This is not the world out to "get" you. It's you!

Now, it is true that data feeds go awry for a couple of days around the Rx and Direct dates; it is true that emails go missing; it is true that computers do the damndest things.

And it is also true ... more often than not ... that markets will start a trend around the Rx date which reverses course halfway through the Rx phase ... and then arrive at the Direct date a few weeks later with prices pretty much within a per cent or so of where the whole silly phase started.

So, Mercury is Rx from June 26 to July 20. Just pay attention!

Jupiter's shift into Cancer should accelerate sector rotation ... that is, money will flow out of stock sectors which have been popular over the past year or so and into different sectors. I discussed this in the May 13 edition.

It also puts the planet of expansion on track to make a Grand Trine, which is the most benevolent of all astrological aspects, with Neptune in Pisces and Saturn in Scorpio. Neptune rules Pisces, so is in a good mood; Jupiter is exalted in Cancer, so he is reasonably benign; and Saturn in Scorpio is associated historically with strong stock market rallies.

The aspect becomes exact in mid-July. We will need to watch the performance of stock indices very closely then, because a Grand Trine is a very powerful aspect likely to produce an important high or low.

Okay then ... let's recap. Most of the world stock indices behaved themselves ... launching into a strong, intermediate correction in late May. The Vacuous Troll kept dancing to the old Benny and the Feds soundtrack, but also finally faced reality. Apart from Polly, most indices have already hit - and in some cases re-tested - potential bounce levels.

We have a Murky Wrecks period fast approaching, which have a tendency to start a short-term trend change which reverses course halfway through. Helio Merc is going into Sadge and Geo Venus is going into Leo, both of which have a reasonably strong tendency to be good for a gold rally ... as the metal hits a long-range Fibo Rx level, with some intermediate-term positive divergence.


So, I think we have the potential for a good bounce in both gold and stocks getting underway this week. It's probably not going to be long-lasting for either of them ... and over the longer-term, warning sirens are starting to wind-up for stock markets.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013

• Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

• An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

• Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

• Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

And much more...

It is NEVER too late in the year to have this monthly information!