Stock bounce may be topping out

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning October 27, 2014 

The stock market bounceback, which appears to be irrationally exuberant on Wall Street and decidedly timid in other Western indices, could start to fail in the next couple of days.

There is a chance the steep dive into mid-October was a Mercury Retrograde head fake, which I mentioned a couple of weeks ago.

However, the level of technical damage and the apparent caution almost everywhere but on Wall Street do suggest there is more downside just ahead.

If that is the case, markets could top as early as Monday or Tuesday when the Sun and Venus make a trine to Neptune.

And my reasons for thinking that are not just the intermarket technical divergence. Mars leaves the Fire sign, Sagittarius, this weekend and moves into Capricorn where it will soon conjunct Pluto and square Uranus.

We've discussed this many times. Mars is drive and energy. It will add "power" to the symbolism of Pluto in Capricorn and to Uranus in Aries.

In short, the God of War is about to stir up both the plutocrats and the armed rebels.

So, that's why I'm still inclined to think we are facing the two main scenarios I've been chatting with you about over the past couple of weeks ... either that we are in a major three-legged correction to the overall Bull trend, or that we are in the early stages of an emerging Bear.

The next down phase will probably help us to define exactly which one it is. We'll be looking this weekend at the SP500, the FTSE, the ASX200 and India's Nifty.

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on Pollyanna, the 500. It gets a lot of attention every week ... and it is now fairly clear what will happen with the index if the bounceback fails in the next few days.

The big picture planet price charts have been published over the past couple of weeks. Now we'll zoom-in a little. In an ABC correction, where A is the first leg down, B is the bounce, and the C leg is the last decline, it is relatively common for C to equal A.

So long as Polly doesn't bounce too much higher than last week's Close, the "normal" target for the next downleg takes it down to about the $1776 level. It might double-bottom around the $1824 Neptune price line ... or it could continue to $1722 and still be within the general rules for a "correction" in an ongoing Bull. Too much further than that, however, and we would need to consider carefully whether the Bull has given way to a new Bear.

Now let's turn our attention to the FTSE, starting with the long-range planetary pricing. Begin by looking at the price "zone" between a primary Pluto (thick blue line) currently priced around 6500 and a primary Neptune (thick grey line) around 7000. This "band" was broken only briefly at the 1999 peak, caused a top to the 2007 peak ... and is doing the same again.

Also, look closely at the implications of what happens to the index once that primary Pluto line fails to support Bullish prices.

Now let's look again at a simple weekly technical chart we've used before. We knew that horizontal trading band marked by the two thin black lines was getting close to failing because of the extreme negative divergence building in the Big Bird oscillator.

It has plunged so deeply, it is likely that we will have to see a very clear incidence of positive divergence in the oscillator before we can be sure the FTSE price dive is finished. I've marked an example of this with a black circle. While the price retested its lows, Big Bird made higher troughs, indicating that internal strength was coming back into the market.

So, we know the big picture on the FTSE has some major warning signs, because the index has lost the support of the primary Pluto ... and that weekly Big Bird is suggesting the correction is not over.

The chart below is the FTSE's daily and, yes, it's a big bowl of coloured spaghetti showing ALL the planetary price lines currently affecting the price of the index. All you really need to know is that there is a LOT of resistance immediately overhead ... and that all three Canaries in the oscillator panel are starting to roll over again, so breaching all of that resistance will be difficult.

Turning our attention now to the ASX200 ... and we begin not with planet prices, but with two sets of Fibonacci Retracement levels, the red lines are anchored at the 2003 Low and 2007 High and the blue lines at the 2007 High and 2009 Low.

Their long-range influence is obvious even from a quick glance.

Next is Auntie's Weekly Planets chart I show you virtually every weekend and most of you will be very familiar with it.

And next is my private All Planets chart for the index's daily price moves. The blue Saturn line at 5333 for early this week provided only temporary resistance last Monday and Tuesday. The index escaped on Wednesday, attaching itself to a rising Mars ... and closed out the week trapped between rising Mars and falling Mars.

The green Bird, a fast 6 CCI is starting to falter; but the red Bird, a medium 14 CCI, is still strong. So, it is possible the ASX200 will hit the next upside Saturn at 5466. If and when it does, we would need to take another reading from the state of the Canaries to get an idea if the bounce is over, or will head to the 5500s.

And finally for this weekend, a quick look at the state of the Nifty. My apologies to my Indian readers for not doing this more often. It's my long-range planetary price chart and you can see the Mumbai market has run into resistance.

Please check your own weekly charts for the technical condition of the recommended oscillators to see whether breakout or breakdown is more likely from this planetary price zone.

Safe trading - RA

 (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.

Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014   

Fleshing out the 2 main scenarios

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning October 20, 2014 


 Stock markets began bouncing late last week, but it is likely only a relief rally which will be relatively short-lived.

We have a couple of key astrological aspects taking place during the coming week.

The most powerful of these is the solar eclipse New Moon due to occur on Thursday evening in Euro-America and early Friday morning in Asia.

It will take place in Scorpio just after both the Sun and Venus enter the sign.

It's the presence of Venus which will make this eclipse particularly powerful. Scorpio rules debt, taxes and most especially really BIG money. Venus rules material wealth and, according to traditional astrology, tends not to act benignly when travelling through Scorpio.

The other significant aspect is that next weekend Mercury will finish its current retrograde phase.

I indicated last weekend that Mercury Rx can manifest as a head fake. However, I also outlined the two main scenarios now facing markets ... either the Bull is dead and we are now in a new, long-running Bear ... or, this is a major correction likely to run for weeks or months before this post 2009 Bull phase puts on another major rally leg.

So, we'll spend a little time this weekend fleshing out those two main scenarios. I said last weekend that under the major correction scenario, the target for the decline could be as high as $1878 or as low as $1776 on the Pollyanna index, Wall Street's SP500.

I should have said "this" decline, meaning the first leg of of a three-legged decline. It can morph into a five-legged triangle pattern, but that is a level of Elliott Wave complexity which tends to be more confusing than helpful.

In any case, I showed you the long-range planetary price targets which should prove to be important throughout the correction and here's the update.

We now need to see exactly what sort of completed bounce we get before we can even think about predicting targets for the next major leg down.

What we do know is that this is now the second biggest correction on Pollyanna since this Bull market launched itself in 2009.

A lot of commentators are all Awoe! Alas! because the index has broken down below its long-term trendline. Well, yes and no at this stage. Personally, I think log-scale charts tend to be more accurate for an "eyeball" look at the long-range ... and on that chart, Polly is trying to cling on.

The log-scale chart shows how the price has been constrained within a rising wedge ... the thin, red topside trendline and the thick, blue support trendline.

I don't think there's any question that blue trendline is going to be broken decisively. The MACD signal line has gone negative and the peaks in the histograms have gone from mountains to molehills over a long period while the price went higher. Negative divergence.

But, even when the trendline is finally broken, it doesn't necessarily stop the Bulls from launching a rally to do what's called a "kiss back" of the underside of the line before it all then starts really crashing.

Turning now to my home market, Australia. I said last weekend: "Regular readers will know that Auntie is a strongly Neptunian index over the long term, even as she responds to Saturn lines during weekly moves.
 
The next potential Neptune "rescue" level is very nearby, priced around $5150. Note that the index topped out at the $5650 level, so $5150-ish is both a legitimate target and potentially quite strong as a Support level."

And the old bat did exactly as expected ...

The break of the 5150 Neptune level was very short-lived. I'll show you on my daily All Planets chart for the ASX200 below. Now, do NOT try to print this chart, dear reader. Your printer will run out of black ink. Right-click the chart and save it as an image ... and then you'll have a ready-reference guide to help you through the bounce.

As you can see, Auntie topped out with some dithering around the Neptune line in the 5600s and then followed Sun and Venus lines down into the pile-up of coloured spaghetti near the lower 5150s Neptune.

But there were were only intraday breaks below Neptune on Monday and Tuesday. Even Monday managed a close above the line, setting us up for what I'd indicated was a potentially strong Support level.

For a bounce, dear reader, but probably not a complete change in trend.

And finally for this weekend, a quick look at gold and the Sun-Pluto chart most of you will be familiar with.

Earlier in the year, greenback gold found Support at the 1248 Pluto line ... which is now Resistance. However, on the bright side, notice the performance of the Big Bird oscillator.

While the price plunged lower, Big Bird has been steadily making higher troughs. It's a build-up of positive divergence which should have enough power to drive gold prices higher over the next few weeks.

Now I still haven't created a 4Q Archives page ... so you can access the previous two October editions of the Eye from the buttons below.  In the meantime, if you missed the previous two October editions, or want to re-read them, you can access them from the website http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/eyeofra.html or scroll down in this web site's blog.

Safe trading - RA

 (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.

Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014  

The 2 main scenarios and a head fake

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning October 13, 2014 

For the past few weeks we've been discussing the turmoil and volatility likely to be on display during this period.

I warned that the Grand Trine between Mars, Jupiter and Uranus in Fire signs would break boundaries. That is the true nature of a trine.

We also talked about how the symbolism of the Fire trine would be further exacerbated by the Sun and Venus rocking the Libran scales.

And how last week's lunar eclipse Full Moon had the power to bring it all to a spectacular climax.

Mercury is Retrograde for most of October, so there is a chance it's all a head fake. However, we still have the solar ecipse New Moon to come ... on the 23rd.

Western-allied markets are in turmoil. Not so much so for a lot of the Asian indices.

We now need to put aside The Spooky Stuff and look at what has happened from a more technical point of view.

And there are only two main scenarios. We are either in a secondary correction before another rally produces a final High to the Bull run sometime next year. Or, we are already in a new Bear.

The good news is that the extreme nature of the cosmic energy explosion should now begin to subside ... at least temporarily. The bad news is that we are probably in a correction due to run for weeks, possibly months.

In Elliott Wave terms, it would be a major Wave 4. Elliott theorised that stock markets run in 5 waves, where Waves 1, 3 and 5 are major rallies and Waves 2 and 4 are rather severe downturns within the overall structure.

So, let's begin this weekend with a look at what we might expect as reasonable and "normal" if that scenario is in play. The chart below is a monthly of the SP500, using Bi-BBs (the use of which is outlined in The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon) and an Andrew's Pitchfork.

The current correction has so far run $113 ... so it is roughly on a par with three earlier corrections during this Bull phase. They were $118, $155 and $112.

The big correction, which EW acolytes believe was a Wave 2 downturn, ran for 6 months from start to finish and sliced $295 off the price of the index.

So, if we are now in Wave 4, this downturn will not be short-lived and there is more downside still to come. Normalcy dictates there should be a relationship with Wave 2, either in Time or Price, but not necessarily both.

Elliott Wavers use a rule-of-thumb that a major Wave 4 tends to decline into the same price territory as the previous Wave 4 of a lower level. Yes, I know ... it can be very difficult to get your head around if you haven't spent a lot of time trying to understand the theory.

So, let me try to cut out the gobbledegook for you. It means, on our planetary prices chart below, that the target for the decline could be as high as $1878 ... or as low as $1776.

Now remember, that's the relatively optimistic scenario ... that this is just a significant downturn in a Bull run which still has another major rally to run.

The second scenario is that this is a screaming klaxon warning the Bull is dead and the Bear is back. Even if that's the case, there will be sharp and swift bouncebacks in the price as the central banks, the hedge funds, the fund managers try desperately to drive prices higher ... even if it's only to unload their toxic holdings onto poor mug punters who buy the media line that it's "a great time to buy".

Caveat emptor!

Now to my home market, the ASX200 and its routinely reliable Weekly Planets chart. Regular readers will know that Auntie is a strongly Neptunian index over the long term, even as she responds to Saturn lines during weekly moves.

The next potential Neptune "rescue" level is very nearby, priced around $5150. Note that the index topped out at the $5650 level, so $5150-ish is both a legitimate target and potentially quite strong as a Support level.

The Big Bird oscillator has gone into a death dive on the weekly. Poor little thing seems to be buried in the dirt on the mineshaft floor. We'll get no sustained bounce in Auntie's price levels until he manages to pop his head back above the lowest red line in the panel.

And that's it for this weekend. Long-range charts and other stuff for the European indices have been published in previous weeks and if you didn't do a cut-and-paste of them, you can have a wander through the Archives.

Since we're in the final quarter for the year, I still have to do some housekeeping to create the 4Q Archives page. In the meantime, if you missed last weekend, or want to re-read it, you can access it from the website http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/eyeofra.html or scroll down in this blog.

Safe trading - RA

 (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.

Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014  

Earth Wind & Fire rock markets

 Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning October 6, 2014 

Like all good fireworks spectaculars, the cosmic energy explosion should hit a stunning climax this coming week.

The trigger is likely to be the lunar eclipse Full Moon in Aries happening on Wednesday.

It's conjunct Uranus, currently being trined by Mars in Sagittarius and Jupiter in Leo. That's already a lot of Fire sign energy and it's about to get a boost from the lunar eclipse Full Moon.

But wait ... there's more! The Sun and Venus are in Libra, squaring Pluto and opposing Uranus ... that long-running Uranus/Pluto square which we've discussed many times as the rebel forces going to war with the plutocrats determined to maintain control at any cost.

Libra is Cardinal Air ... it's the Wind, now fanning all that Fire energy into an global wildfire. Pluto is in Capricorn, the Cardinal Earth sign. "I have the power and no-one will take it from me!"

And on top of all that, Mercury has just gone Retrograde and will stay that way for most of October. Nothing anyone says should be believed or trusted ... because what they think they know is likely to be only part of the story.

As an astrology buff, it is fascinating watching all this unfold ... just in the past week alone. Student protestors take to the streets of Hong Kong, shutting down the government quarter. They're well-behaved, sitting down to do their homework when not manning the barricades, and putting up signs apologising for the inconvenience they're causing.

It is a beautiful mix of Uranus in Aries demanding social change, balanced by the good manners of the Sun and Venus in sociable Libra.

Of course, the plutocrats in control have no intention of giving up any of their power. Along come the triad gangs to provoke a bit of violence and instill some fear into the demonstrators. Pluto, in his natural underhanded scheming guise, working secretly to maintain the status quo that Capricorn is always obsessed with preserving.

But, there's an even bigger picture to all of this. Who stirred up the students? Do we think it just might have been those same secretive agents who stirred up trouble in Kiev? Is it coincidence that both Russia and China find themselves under "popular" protest right at the time they're making long-range smoochies with each other to thwart the political/economic power of the nation which considers itself the world's top cop?

Meanwhile, the top cop has put together a posse of sheriffs and deputies to unleash "firepower" ... Fire. Power. ... on the nutbags running around the desert displaying the very worst symbolism of Uranus in Aries, a combination of Fixed Air, where nothing new and useful enters the brain, and Cardinal Fire, which is armed aggression.

Astrology also tells us how this is all going to end, by the way.

But, but ... we did expect all these cosmic games to have a volatile impact on stock markets over these few weeks and a couple of weekends ago I published a series of charts for the exact price targets to watch on various world indices.

So, enough with the mystical mumbojumbo for the moment and let's have a little look.

First up is the SP500 which slipped out of Pollyanna mode into Chicken Little mode ... and made it down to the first Trine Target.

Toronto, too!

London's FTSE crashed through the previous week's boundary and broke another two before bouncing.

We discussed the FTSE's technical condition a few weeks back and noted a horizontal price consolidation happening with a weakening Big Bird oscillator. Not looking good for new Highs.

Pollyanna's primary planet prices are still in play ...

And the ASX200 continues to play with its Weekly Planet prices ...

Odd, non? Nevermind. The Old Gods have been around for a long time and humans have been studying them for thousands of years. See a sabre-tooth, run away, sit around staring at the night sky. Anyway, this Uranus-Pluto square thing we've been waffling on about for the past few years still has longer to run. The last "hit" doesn't occur until next year and, even then, the whole period ... in terms of "history" ... is usually only the start of a large-scale socio-economic upheaval.

Right now, we can't be certain who will "win". But, we do know who will NOT win. And all of you readers living between the Rio Grande and the Lakes might want to stop reading right now.

The fast-greying current temporary resident of that antebellum mansion at 1600 is destined to become one of the last emperors. This conflagration we're seeing unfold is the beginning of The End Times.

Like all empires, it doesn't want to die. But, the simple fact of astrological life is that Progressed Mars in the USA's birth chart turned Retrograde in 2006.

Symbolically, the USA's personal God of War no longer supports its outward ambitions. When it ends, we don't really know. Certainly, it will drag on for as long as Pluto remains in Capricorn.

How it ends is easier to see. It ends with a desperate last helicopter fleeing the roof of the US Embassy as opposition tanks crash through the gates ... it ends with Marines pushing helicopters and fighter jets overboard from the decks of the carriers as the ships turn back to the safety of the homeland.

And it's not that far away. And this time, it's global.

Safe trading - RA

 (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.

Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014  


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