The SP500 heading to 2082 target zone

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning November 24, 2014 

Wall Street heads into a shortened trading week, with markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and also due for an early close on Friday.

Reportedly, this is now the third-longest Bull market in modern history for American stocks.

It is surpassed only by the 1921-1929 and 1987-2000 Bull runs ... and there are some commentators who believe that we are still only part of the way through the first leg up of a new "supercycle" Bull.

Most of the Western stock indices are not quite as bouyant as Wall Street and the Nasdaq, so we'll spend some time this weekend having a close look at the technical condition of the SP500 across various timeframes, since it is a "key" market whose direction is likely to have an impact on other markets.

Astrologically, the high-energy period during mid-November had apparently little effect on stock prices, though it does seem to have raised the stakes in what is being dubbed a new Cold War between the USA and Russia.

Joe Biden was back in Ukraine last week, as he was in the weeks before the "popular" pro-Western uprising overthrew the country's Russian-backed President.

Vlad won't be happy. Sergei Lavrov thinks the USA now wants to extend regime change from Kiev to Moscow.

Now, let's take a look at the potential targets immediately ahead after Friday's boisterous gaps up in both Europe and on Wall Street. The Pollyanna index is now not far away from running into overhead, long-range Pluto resistance at 2082.

It is the Pluto line at 1878 which put an end, on a weekly closing price basis, to the recent sharp drop. The low of the drop touched the 1823 Neptune line, so it is possible, after some stalling or a correction at Pluto, that the index will make another run at achieving higher prices.

Okay, well that gets the planetary price targets out of the way. Now let's turn our attention to the technical position and we'll use one of the techniques from The Idiot & The Moon ... Bi-BB charts with a fast MACD across the three main timeframes, daily, weekly and monthly.

We'll start with the daily. Friday brought the third big Opening gap since the current bounce began. The fast MACD oscillator isn't particularly happy. The histograms have gone negative and so have the signal lines. They can stay this way for a while before a decline develops, but the oscillator is suggesting further immediate-term gains are facing headwinds.

On a weekly basis, Friday's big jump took the weekly price bar above the upper Bollinger Band. We've discussed before how breaks of the upper or lower bands tends to stall the direction of the trend-in-play, or prompt an intermediate trend change.

While the MACD histograms endorse the rally, the current peak in the rise of the signal lines is a little more muted in its enthusiasm.

A monthly version of the same technique contains enough news to please both Bulls and Bears. The MACD histograms haven't hit a new high for years and the signal lines are flat-lining.

But we should probably also note that the last two Bull peaks in the 500 didn't occur without the index touching, or breaking, the upper Bi-BB barrier ... and that there has been no monthly Close below the upper layer since the first half of 2012.

What is most interesting about the above chart, though, is November's break above the main upper tyne of the long-range pitchfork.

The Australian stock market has been going in the other direction ... and rather strongly. There is reasonably strong potential support not far below last week's Close ... the Uranus level around 5270.

Safe trading - RA

 (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.

This weekend's Crimea vote isn't "it"

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning March 17, 2014 

market direction depends on Western political reaction

According to the headlines this week, the direction of major Western stock markets now depends on how Crimea votes this weekend.

In truth, the market direction really depends on the Western political reaction to an outcome which is a foregone conclusion.

The reaction is eminently predictable, as well. Forked tongues will speak incessantly and loudly.

The current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania will make noises about democracy and the right of all the people of Ukraine to have a voice ... something he is never likely to grant to all the population of Cuba about the fate of the eastern end of that island.

The current resident of 10 Downing will repeat the script ... ignoring his country's long refusal to allow a free vote of all residents of that large island to the left about what happens with its northern provinces.

Anyway, this week won't see the main game. Those of you who have Forecast 2014 might want to have another look at the graphic on Page 6. As I said there: "And the danger of military conflicts expands as diplomatic solutions fail."

The graphic shows two timeframes "when the issues are likely to become unavoidably obvious". The first was the February/March changeover ... and the next is still several weeks away.

In the meantime, we need to concern ourselves with the charts. I think we'll chat a little more this weekend about the Bi-BBs, since once again they've proven to be very useful in giving us a warning about where markets were headed.

Last weekend, we looked at those charts and their implications for a fast move in gold ... and a stall or correction starting on Wall Street.

Firstly, to the weekly Bi-BB chart for Pollyanna, the SP500. We had discussed how the Bollinger Bands were beginning to tighten, which almost invariably precedes a fast move, and how a breaking of the outer bands almost always stalls a trend or provokes a change in trend direction.

I circled previous examples of an upper band break and pointed out how even the little ones caused a reaction ... and right on cue, it happened again.

So far, price has retreated from one weekly Saturn cluster down to another. Big Bird, the 50CCI, has dived rather deeply. This is a fairly strong indication we could now be in an intermediate decline and will probably need a divergence reading in the oscillator before a new rally can be sustained.

The next chart shows only the primary planetary lines currently having an impact on the 500. We had a false break of the long-range Pluto line priced at 1876, confirming that it is a very strong resistance level for the index. Given the unhappy state of the Big Bird, it's likely the index will need to drop to one of the lower primary price levels shown below.

For my home market readers, I'll show the ASX 200's state-of-play within its daily All Planets chart. For the second time in recent weeks, the Saturn barrier now at 5467 proved too difficult to overcome and Auntie went on another dive down to the Saturn at 5330.

What is different this time is that that two of our Canaries - Big Bird (yellow) and Medium Bird (red) - have fallen off their perch. Fast Bird, the green oscillator, is suggesting the potential for a little bounce, but we probably need to see a clear instance of positive divergence forming in the red line before this correction shows firm signs of being finished.

Now let's turn our attention to gold. Last weekend we discussed how price was trying to set itself for a stronger run to the 1363 Pluto level and how the daily Bi-BB chart showed "we're probably about to see a fast move".

And we all know what happened ... the fast move just blew past Pluto.

I've been promising a special report on gold and have been waiting to see the structure of this rally. I will now put that report together and email it out late in the week, or next weekend.

If it's the latter, there probably won't be an Eye of Ra next weekend.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014