November price ranges for indices

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning November 5, 2012

The USA goes into election mode this week with neither the incumbent nor the challenger clearly ahead.

And with the Old Gods' messenger, Mercury, going into Retrograde mode on election day, there's every chance the result will be murky.

Already, lawyers for both camps are ready to roll in key swing States like Ohio, Florida and Virginia.

What normally happens with stock markets when Merc goes Rx is that it starts a trend which goes into reverse halfway through the period. That would mean a potential trend change date on the 16th - the day Mars changes signs from Sagittarius to Capricorn and starts making its own aspects to the ongoing Uranus/Pluto square.

We saw it in action last week when Venus made Uranus/Pluto aspects and Superstorm Sandy wreaked havoc, forcing a 2-day closure of the NYSE.

It would take a much better astrologer than I to accurately predict what to expect in the coming week ... and I'm not going to try.

Instead, we will go through the exercise we did early last month and concentrate on defining the probable range for the month ahead.

It will be a critical month because the Dow is flirting with a trendline vital to continuation of the Bull run. Failure to hold it would most likely be confirmation that the next Bear has emerged.

This is normally the time of year, with the Sun moving towards the optimistic sign of Sagittarius, that kicks off the Santa Claus rally.

But, the entrails aren't looking so good. As we can see on the chart above, the DJI has declined into the trendline drawn from last year's August/October plunge to the June correction low ... and neither the fast MACD nor the long-range Canary is looking happy.

And the more broadly-based SP500 continues to play at the pointy end of what we've discussed a few times in the past few months as being a likely Ending Diagonal pattern ... which is extremely Bearish once the downside of the wedge is penetrated decisively.

There is, as yet, no clear and obvious negative divergence from Pollyanna's long-range Canary (the blue line). We have been watching and waiting for a lower peak to occur in that oscillator simultaneous with a higher price high to give the sort of warning it gave at the 2007 Bull top.

Nevertheless, the warning signs are there. Both the short-term (green) and intermediate-range Canaries (red line) have already diverged negatively. Just as they did when Wall Street was topping at the end of the previous Bull run. The danger continues to build.

Now, let's take a look at planetary charts for various indices to gauge the probable price ranges for November.

October turned out to be the first negative month for Pollyanna since May. But, price was largely contained within the range defined by two Neptune lines on her long-range planetary chart. We've discussed this chart fairly frequently and the implications are obvious.

If there's going to be a Santa Claus rally into the end of the year, the probable targets are 1522 or 1562. And if the index breaks down, rather than breaks out, all the major downside stalling points are listed.

For the moment, Polly needs to hold the 1410 level ... and the Nasdaq 100 needs to continue holding the Uranus line around 2650.

The NDX pretty much did last week what it did the week before ... minor breaks of the Saturn/Uranus planetary price lines, but finishing the week with price contained within the barriers.

If there's a Nasdaq breakdown this month, 2443 seems the most likely target. If it's breakout, it'll be 2940 and above by the end of the year.

Germany's DAX index is above, having spent the past 2 months in a trading range, with the downside routinely stopped by the Old God of boundaries, Saturn. From a technical viewpoint, the odds probably favour a Bullish flag pattern - with one rally left.

Last weekend, we discussed once again the potential rally signal in the FTSE as it declined into the influence of a rising Sun line.

 A bit wobbly on Wednesday, but it worked for the FTSE, even if not as a pointer to what might happen on Wall Street.

 It'll open next week with downward pressure from a falling Sun line.

And which of the two influences it decides to follow is likely to be impacted by what happens with the elections in America.

The FTSE Weekly Planets chart is below, showing the price targets likely to be hit this month, regardless of the direction of the break. A break which is highly likely given the number of weeks the FTSE has been trapped in a narrow range.

Our next chart, below, is for India's Nifty 50. It is actually missing a couple of weekly bars because Yahoo Finance has now dropped historical price coverage for that index, as well as for the Canadian indices and the DJI. I'd like to continue coverage of the Indian markets, so if any readers from Mumbai know where I can find replacement data, please drop me a line under the "contact" button in the main navigation menu.

For the moment, the Nifty is still trading the 5690s range highlighted the last time I published this chart in early October.

The Singapore exchange is above. Technically, it is trying to base on top of the previous consolidation, which tracked that grey Neptune line currently priced just a tad below 3000. You can see it also has a tendency to use the Saturn lines as a base and I've used those lines to try to define the probable November range. The upside Resistance is in the mid 3200s and the "normal" downside would be around 2953.

The Hang Seng has been on a roll, taking its cues from a potential bottoming pattern in the Shanghai composite. You can probably calculate the price of the Saturn lines by just using a crosshair to previous price bars, but I've marked the likely upper limit at 23,590.

I think I'm also missing data now for the Shanghai Composite index, charted below, so the full range of the last couple of price bars is probably inaccurate.

However, the data I have still suggests China is trying to bottom. The oscillator is trying to creep back into neutral territory - and with some Bullish divergence; not just in the short-term either. The oscillator bottomed out at a higher trough during the recent price lows, compared with its performance in September, 2011 ... when price was actually several hundred points higher.

And finally, Auntie - the ASX 200.

So, just to recap briefly. The danger continues to grow in the major American indices and the astrological weather ahead continues to mirror what the actual weather was like on the US East Coast last week. In fact, it could get a lot worse later in November when Mars sets off the Uranus/Pluto discord again.

Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, have at least some faith in the Old Gods. In Bulls and Bears, through Goldmanesque manipulation and BenDraghi interventions, the pulse of the markets beats to coloured spaghetti trails marked by the passage of planets.

All we really need to know is where the milestone markers are. And now you have them!

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012