Oil prices? Drill? Substitute? Conserve?

Follow up on January 4, 2011 Blog:

Barrel of Oil $100+?

February 18, 2011 and the price of crude begins to jump. By March 25, 2011 it is up 25% at $105 for light sweet crude. Protests in the Middle east are given credit for the price increase. Consumers of oil are trying to devise ways to avoid paying the price.

What are the options?

Drill?

Geologists have been busy mapping possible locations and the corporate bean counters have been estimating cost. Governments around the world have been inundated with requests for drilling permits. For this analysis we will use the chart for the First Oil Well August 27, 1859 Noon Titusville Pa. (Print this blog and add to Financial Astrology Textbook 4)

For drilling companies the hopeful aspect is Pluto trine Pluto from March 30-April 19, 2011. However the aspect does not become exact, thus further delays until exact February 4, 2012. In the meantime Pluto will trine Mercury July 4,2011, Jupiter will conjunct Pluto July 27, October 23, 2011 and March 8, 2012 promising the drilling companies a plethora of finds and plenty of options as to where to drill first.

You will notice a string of Jupiter aspects starting April 14, 2011 continuing through March 8, 2012 promising an increase supply of available crude to sell. Will Jupiter bring down the price of crude as supplies increase? In February when Pluto made a trine to Mercury news concerning the availability of surplus supplies of crude did not influence the oil traders. They continued to push up the price on futures contracts. The same aspect returns July 4, and Nov 24 with the possibility of a return to higher futures contracts on the spot oil market.

Substitute?

The Titutsville chart shows an eclipse at 11 Gemini rather close to its 7 Gemini Uranus on June 2, 2011. Optimistically the sudden change will appear and competing energy sources will come on line to diminish the demand for oil.

OPEC's chart has the Moon at 7 degrees Cancer. The July 1, 2011 eclipse is at 9 degrees Cancer. An eclipse to the Moon means that the public is not pleased and optimistically(again) is looking for alternatives to the groups supply policies. Since January 30, 2011 OPEC has experienced Pluto opposed the Moon therefore the public has not favored oil exploration by the organization. In fact the populace of the OPEC countries has been very angry with the management of oil drilling and exploration. Their attitude will continue until May 2, 2011 with Saturn square Saturn and the discussions with their leaders concerning the distribution of oil revenues. The problem concerning the public's perception of OPEC policies will continue the Oct 26, 2012 with the continuing opposition of Pluto to the OPEC Moon. Uranus opposes OPEC's Mercury May 20, 2011 Aug 31, 2011 and March 7, 2012. Strange news and unusual events confuses the organization therefore their policies are inconsistent and traders find the market very volatile. This will encourage inventors of alternative energy sources to invest and promote their products.

Conserve? Mercury is retrograde for the next 3 weeks (March 30-April 23) therefore write a list and combine your trips. Keep your cellphone in your pocket to double check appointments and phone home. Pay cash at the pump is another technique. Do not fill the tank is another. Coast to the 4 way stop sign and avoid getting behind a school bus. For home heating change from oil to natural gas. That is your individual contribution to the conservation of energy.

Governments and corporations can install solar and wind generators to lighten their consumption of electrical power. Power companies can switch from oil to natural gas to generate power. When oil is $100+ it makes economic sense to change. Jupiter and Uranus in Aries will allow the change to happen quickly and probably unannounced.

Conclusion: Oil prices will remain over $100 until June when demand destruction becomes apparent. The June 2nd and July 1st eclipses will change the landscape of world markets and the price of oil will reverse direction.

aside: I'm hoping I'm correct since I'm scheduled to lecture in June for the South Suburban Chicago NCGR and the Milwaukee NCGR. I plan to drive so I will have the freedom to cruise around.

Barrel of Oil $100+ ?

Gasoline: $5 a gallon

A favored headline scare tactic of financial news reporters. The article reads that if the price of a barrel of oil continues to increase at the current rate, in only a few weeks the price at the pump will be 5 bucks. Surely the current price trend will continue with speculators adding a dollar or two per day to the price of a barrel on the NY Comex spot market. They continue that if the rate of price increase continues, it means you will pay $3 then $4 then $5 per gallon. And of course this could spark a double dip recession, higher unemployment, and thin new car sales.

Their story is true

Every current driver remembers every detail of the story. They experienced the problem in July 2008 with $145 per barrel the high for oil on the spot market. They remember how to consolidate shopping trips, minimized vacation miles, car pool and refused the temptation of mini-mart snacks. In October 2008 a surplus of supply sent the price down to $77 per barrel, but in the mean time speculation on the oil markets and mortgage market initiated a great recession.

The question then becomes, will it happen again? Will price move in a straight line up to $145. Will OPEC quickly add to the supply of oil and prevent another skyrocketing increase at the pump? We do know for sure that OPEC does not favor selling fewer barrels of oil.

I thought I would take a look at the chart for the date OPEC's first official meeting, Sept. 14,1960 9:00 am GMT in Bagdad.

In July 2008 OPEC had T. Uranus opposed its Sun and Saturn conjunct its Pluto but in October T. Jupiter made a square to Venus then a trine to its Sun. Jupiter sees to increase the supply of oil. These aspects will not repeat.

The January 4, 2011 eclipse falls on OPEC's second house Saturn. It means they will negotiate every deal and allow the buyer only a minimum profit. They will systematically account for all of their assets and try to be thrifty with the distribution of oil. An eclipse is in effect for at least 6 months and during this time T. Saturn will make a conjunction twice to OPEC's Venus. On Nov. 27 during Saturn's 1st conjunction to Venus prices moved from $83-$87. Then Jupiter took over with a square to itself and prices moved from $87-$91. This will happen again March 30 and Aug 22.

Conclusion

It seems Saturn slows the pace of increased prices for OPEC. Jupiter increases supplies of oil suggesting that the price per gallon will move up slowly during the next six months. Ingenuity is required if we are to avoid spending extra income on transportation.

Consider these next few months an opportunity to reorganize how you spend your travel time and hopefully natural gas or electricity will become your fuel of choice. T. Pluto opposed OPEC's Moon (Jan. 30-May 5, Dec 3- Jan 30, 2012 and May 11-Oct 25) will probably inspire everyone to make the changes required.

OPEC: Oil UP Oil down

The chart for OPEC The Organizations of Petroleum Exporting States is from Nicholas Campion's Book of World Horoscopes.  

It has proven to be a fairly accurate chart for predicting the price of oil. You can watch the transiting planets as they move in cycles around the zodiac or you can pick an event chart such as the one above for OPEC.

Here my procedure. 

Using this commodities site I find the date the price was at a high and then the date it was at a low.  I place the planets Jupiter-Pluto around the chart and their direction during the year. If they make a conjunction, square or an opposition during the year I note the date it happens and then find the price on that date.   

Example using the OPEC chart to follow the price of oil. 

Oil was at its all time high $141 per barrel the month following Jupiter trine the OPEC Sun July 11, 2008. The next aspect to follow was Saturn conjunct Pluto when the price begins to fall. Saturn then makes two conjunctions to OPEC's Sun (Dec 15, 2008 and Jan. 16, 2009).  The price of oil fell to $32 on Dec 19, 2008.  It remained on its low for about two months and then began an upward climb doubling  by June 15, 2009 to $68.  During those six months Jupiter made favorable aspects to Mercury, Venus, Mars and itself.  Aug 20, 2009 Saturn returned to a conjunction with the OPEC Sun then squared Jupiter and Mars to find a price range of $60-70. Then Jupiter opposed Uranus made a sextile to itself and made a trine to Mars pushing the price up t0 $80.  

Follow the progress of transiting Jupiter through the next few months as it moves to an opposition with Pluto, trines Neptune and the Moon and makes a sextile to Saturn.  After the date each aspect is exact then look at the one that follows and you should be able to anticipate whether the price will go up or down.

The Textbook for Financial Astrology contains a number of charts for stocks and commodities. I think it is really a fun way to watch the oil market knowing the price of gasoline will follow. The dollar is also a factor in the price of oil.  Scroll down for the Dollar's chart.

The price of gas has become something of a sport for me.  

I know that about two weeks after the spot price for oil drops a few dollars then the price of gas at the pump will be down a few cents. In early 2008 when gasoline moved past$3 per gallon I learned to carefully consolidate my trips. I know my exact route when I go into town (80 miles round trip). I track the price of oil to have an idea of whether to fill up at the pump or just spend $20.  My Virgo rising is very self-critical especially if I miss a lower price of even two cents a week later.