Sunday, June 30, 2013

The danger of trines

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning July 1, 2013
The danger of trines - Randall Ashbourne
Wall Street takes a break this week as the USA celebrates its birth as an independent nation. Happy Birthday!

Last weekend I highlighted the bounce potential for world stock indices and the price of gold. Stock markets bounced and gold slumped.

We will take another look at gold charts in a little while. But most of this edition will concentrate on examining the past behaviour of the markets during sets of important trines.

In the middle of July, Jupiter will make a Grand Trine with Saturn and Neptune. All three planets will be 120 degrees apart in water signs - Jupiter in Cancer trined to Saturn in Scorpio trined to Neptune in Pisces.

A Grand Trine involving these three outer planets is a relatively rare event and there is a tendency among astrologers to view such an aspect with celebration and optimism.

It is a misunderstanding of the nature of a trine. The normal symbolism applied to a trine is that it represents an easy flow of energy ... that it's a good times scenario when life and progress flow smoothly and easily.

What it actually means is the removal of obstacles. And that means Up ... or Down! I've mentioned before that if you've been having a hard time of life and a big trine comes along, you suddenly get a new job, win the girl of your dreams, and buy a winning lottery ticket to boot!
But it depends entirely on the circumstances. If you've been in the courts fighting like hell to stay out of jail and a trine comes along in your personal horoscope, it can just as easily send you away for a long time! The "obstacles" you've been throwing in the court's path just get swept aside.

So the primary question here is: What are the obstacles? Are they blocking the markets from moving higher ... or stopping them from dropping like a stone?

Let's explore the symbolic nature of the planetary energy first. Jupiter is the Old God of good times, expansion and growth; Saturn relates to restrictions, duty, responsibility and getting your just desserts; Neptune fires ideals, dreams, hopes and wishes.

In simplistic terms, Jupiter gives you what you want, Saturn gives you what you deserve, and Neptune feeds your inner addictions.

Jupiter and Saturn, in our context, are also the business planets. So, most stock indices have been Bullish since the Bear bottom in 2009 and the Old God of growth has sent a lot of them higher than the 1999/2000 and 2007 peaks.

Saturn wants to keep a running check on PE ratios and whether the price levels are "deserved". And Neptune ... well, I think we'll give Neptune responsibility for the boundless printing of money from nowhere, feeding the addiction of large traders to QE4ever.

Saturn and Neptune have been in an ongoing trine for a little while now ... with Ole Misery, the restrictive god, demanding to know just how long this cheap money addiction is going to last. Saturn doesn't like cheap and easy anything. And he has a very short temper with addictive behaviour. After all, it's not good for you in the long run. And Saturn is all about what's good for you in the long run - and really doesn't give a rat's about how you feel!

Jupiter and Neptune are like a couple of almost identical twin brothers. If it feels good, do it! And then do it again ... and again. Like brothers, they'll sometimes display a bit of rivalry when it's just the two of them.

But, when "Dad" appears scowling and frowning, they'll stand side-by-side putting on a united show of bravado. And that's what we're about to face.

So, let's look at past behaviour to try to get some idea of what to expect ...

In the SP500 weekly chart below, Jupiter-Neptune trines are green bars; Jupiter-Saturn trines are blue bars; Saturn-Neptune trines are red bars.

And even at an eyeball glance, we're not talking "do-nothing" results with any of these aspects. These have a strong tendency to be market-movers ... and we have a triple whammy approaching mid-month ... with the Jupiter-Saturn trine due to be ongoing.

As it was in the lead-up to, and crash from, 2007.
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Nor is the behaviour isolated to just the past decade or so. Below is a longer-range monthly chart of the 500 ... and the Jupiter-Saturn trine was present in the lead-up to, and crash from, the 1987 peak - and also present in the early 90s recession.
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I've mentioned in the past how similar the current era seems to be to what happened with stock markets during the Bull/Bear/Bull/Bear/Bull/Bear phase which caused turmoil in the 1960s.

And, once again, we see the same three trines were strongly in play during that period.
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And there, too, during the turbulent 20s, 30s and 40s ... 
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So, not only do we have the ongoing Uranus-Pluto square to deal with, which we've discussed a number of times in the past couple of years ... we're about to go into Jupiter-Saturn-Neptune trine danger mode.

Perhaps we should all take a little time during the July 4 slowdown to examine our holdings very, very closely and have a firm plan-of-action in place to protect our capital.

Now, let's look again at gold prices ... which plunged while stocks bounced.

The danger implied by the still deeply-diving oscillator I mentioned last weekend is going to take even more time to ease. Talking with a couple of friends during the week, I used the Incredible Charts software to define a couple of technical levels likely to be important since price keeps breaking Fibonacci and planetary levels.

The levels are 1180 and 976 ... and the first of these was hit only a day or so after I sent the chart. The reality is that it's unlikely that even that is The Bottom of gold's plunge.

I've altered the oscillator to a 20 - medium-range - reading because I seriously doubt we are going to get a sustained turnaround in gold until this particular Canary records a positive divergence reading. Meaning, it will have to make a higher trough while price is making a lower one.

Until that happens ... and happens very clearly ... bouncebacks are likely to be relatively short-lived
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Prices continue to respond to the Sun-Pluto levels of the planetary chart ... and the mild positive divergence in the weekly oscillator is continuing to build. However, until we get an instance of it on the monthly chart, we probably cannot expect a long-range turnaround.

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No stock charts this week. We are entering an astrological aspect phase this month which has a history of creating turmoil. And remember it is an ongoing phase, not just a one-off event.

We don't need to get overly optimistic or unduly pessimistic. We do need to remember that Saturn is about taking responsibility, making solid, practical plans ... and doing what is good for us in the long run.

So, review your portfolio and, at the very least, make sure you have rigid loss stops in place to protect your capital. The last thing we want to do when Saturn energy is being highlighted is to let the Old God of good times and his dream-weaving twin double-up the addiction.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

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