Sunday, August 25, 2013

Looking at targets for the bounce

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 26, 2013

Mars in Leo.." because it's Fire, is more obviously aggressive,
in the very broad sense of the word"
Wall Street is in what is probably temporary bounceback mode after dropping into last week's Jupiter-Uranus square.

The volatile moves are likely to continue this week since Venus is now in her second home sign, Libra, and is squaring Jupiter and Pluto while opposing Uranus.

In other words, it's another Grand Square. The two astrological benefics should be especially benign ... because Jupie is exalted in Cancer and Venus is partial to fairness and balance in Libra.

Unfortunately, that's not the only Spooky Stuff happening. Mars is shifting into Leo. The impact of that move may be more obvious in world politics than in stock markets. And I need to digress for a moment ... simply because the former will affect the latter.

When most astrologers talk about Cancer, they reach for the cookbook and waffle about love of family and cooking. Which is okay. But, it's shallow.

What Cancer is really about is security; about cultural, ethnic and tribal roots; about security of the homeland, as much as protection of the home life. Leo symbolises a more outward-looking energy ... and because it's Fire, rather than Water, it's also more obviously aggressive, in the very broad sense of the word.

Leo loves to be adored. Eh! Don't we all. Leo needs to be adored. As one of my Texas Republican friends moans every so often: "Obama is such a Leo!" I think it's intended as an insult!

However, it does serve as a good example of the Leo principles. Needing to be adored, the "good side" of Leo energy will strive to make itself worthy of adulation. It recognises that to be worshipped as a god, one should actually strive to behave like a god. So, on the good side of the ledger, Leo will not only put on a glorious show, it'll put on the best show you've ever seen and leave you so entranced that you keep coming back for more.

Of course, there's always the "other side" of the ledger ... the one where the Leo energy demands to be worshipped, but does nothing to actually make itself worthy of the adulation. Think of the "Sun Kings" of the former French aristocracy. And think of Leo's opposite sign, Aquarius ... the radical revolutionaries who don't know when to stop.

And so we come back to the Martian sign shift ... and to Egypt, Syria, Greece, Spain. And I remind you, once again, of the overall meaning of the Uranus-Pluto square which remains in effect for the next couple of years and now has the king of the Old Gods, Jupiter, making a Cardinal T-square. Uranus in Aries is radical change challenging plutocratic rulership and support of the status quo, represented by Pluto in Capricorn ... with both of those now being aspected by Jupiter in Cancer - exaggerated defence of homeland security.

The symbolism is everywhere in some nuance or another. Potential problems now arise with the Mars move into Leo. Since one of the symbols of Mars is military aggression ... and Leo is a Fire sign ... we can expect to see many of these political situations literally fired-up again.

So, while the primary shift in energy may be more obvious in world politics, the fallout is likely to be felt in stock markets.

Okay, that's enough of the Spooky background; let's get down to some details in the stuff we're interested in. As I said back in late July, we're probably in a major correction mode. That's very obvious on Asian markets. Some of the European indices have been hitting new peaks.

We'll concentrate on Wall Street again this weekend, however.

The indices declined into the exact timeframe of the Jupiter-Uranus square last week. In last weekend's edition, I published the following chart, with two price-crossing levels to be watched closely midweek.

Pollyanna, the SP500 index, didn't hit the exact price level during NYSE trading hours. Annoyingly, it did do so out-of-hours ... within $3 for the index futures and virtually exactly with the 1631.50 overnight low for the ES-Mini.

Why the bounce occurred where it did is more obvious from another chart. In The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon, I outline the importance of learning how to draw important trend lines, and of taking parallels from the initial line to create high-probability charts for future moves.

Below is Pollyanna's New Moon/Full Moon chart, with thick red bars for the day of the NM and thick blue bars for the dates of the FM. It uses parallel blue trendlines to show the channel the 500 has been rising in since the major rally got underway late last year.
Two things about this chart. The first is that I applied the lesson from The Technical Section ... taking a red parallel of the blue channel lines and anchoring it at the June low. It worked. Perfectly.

The second thing I noticed was that 3 of the previous correction lows came in exactly one day past the Full Moon. And we had a repeat performance there, too. The combination proved strong enough to launch what I believe is a temporary bounceback within a larger-scale correction.

We'll take a closer look at target levels for the bounceback in a moment. Why I believe it's temporary is that the Dow Jones Industrials continues to display a very weak technical condition. While the Dow's price managed to climb back to close the week on its trendline, the health of the Big Bird oscillator continued to deteriorate ... strongly suggesting that this is a major correction which has longer and deeper to run before it's over.

Next we look at an update of another chart from last weekend - Miss Polly's weekly Bi-BB. We've had a bounce from the mid-level, making the first level of the upper tier a reasonable target.

That target level in the early 1680s also comes out a couple of other ways. Firstly, there's an obvious gap at 1684.83. Secondly, there's a routine Fibonacci Retracement level close to that price.

Working in its favour are two other conditions. We are entering the monthly changeover period where markets have a general tendency to be positive - most of the time; and we are in the FM-NM phase which is statistically positive - most of the time.

If I'm correct about what's happening within the bigger picture, the correction will resume once the bounce is finished. We still can't be sure whether it's going to eat Price or Time ... though the technical condition of the Dow certainly suggests the June lows are going to be taken out before this downswing is finished.

But let's not get married to that idea; but rather, continue to watch the charts for clues. If it is going to be a hard-and-fast downswing, the bounce won't last long and won't reach very high. And the ultimate low could be as low as 1520 for Pollyanna. The alternative is that it could eat a lot of Time, without eating very much more in Price.

I'll try, next weekend, to get back to looking at a broader range of indices, especially with the weakness showing up across Asia and particularly India, Indonesia and Malaysia.

However, since it's my home market I will include the ASX200 Weekly Planets chart before I go. But, I also want to say this ... the disclaimer at the end of these reports is not just a lame method of avoiding responsibility. These Eye of Ra reports are actually intended to be educational, rather than advice.

There's nothing in them that isn't explained in The Idiot & The Moon so that you can learn to do it all for yourself. It's pointless adopting me as your "guru", simply to replace someone else. It's your financial future you should be working to protect and that means you should actually be working at it.

It's not particularly hard or strenuous work, folks. There are a few techniques that are relatively simple and easy to learn and which, when properly applied, will help you to make profits most of the time. These weekend editions are nothing more than lessons in how-to apply the lessons from the book in real time, to whatever you're trading.

Since I have an unaspected 5th House Sagittarian Sun, I'd have to confess I'm not exactly averse to putting on a bit of a show; the 5th is the Leo house, after all! But it is a Sagittarian Sun, not a Leo ... I don't want to be your guru; I just want to broaden your horizons so you can become your own.

Here's Auntie's WP:

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

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