Looking at targets for the bounce

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 26, 2013

Mars in Leo.." because it's Fire, is more obviously aggressive,
in the very broad sense of the word"

Wall Street is in what is probably temporary bounceback mode after dropping into last week's Jupiter-Uranus square.

The volatile moves are likely to continue this week since Venus is now in her second home sign, Libra, and is squaring Jupiter and Pluto while opposing Uranus.

In other words, it's another Grand Square. The two astrological benefics should be especially benign ... because Jupie is exalted in Cancer and Venus is partial to fairness and balance in Libra.

Unfortunately, that's not the only Spooky Stuff happening. Mars is shifting into Leo. The impact of that move may be more obvious in world politics than in stock markets. And I need to digress for a moment ... simply because the former will affect the latter.

When most astrologers talk about Cancer, they reach for the cookbook and waffle about love of family and cooking. Which is okay. But, it's shallow.

What Cancer is really about is security; about cultural, ethnic and tribal roots; about security of the homeland, as much as protection of the home life. Leo symbolises a more outward-looking energy ... and because it's Fire, rather than Water, it's also more obviously aggressive, in the very broad sense of the word.

Leo loves to be adored. Eh! Don't we all. Leo needs to be adored. As one of my Texas Republican friends moans every so often: "Obama is such a Leo!" I think it's intended as an insult!

However, it does serve as a good example of the Leo principles. Needing to be adored, the "good side" of Leo energy will strive to make itself worthy of adulation. It recognises that to be worshipped as a god, one should actually strive to behave like a god. So, on the good side of the ledger, Leo will not only put on a glorious show, it'll put on the best show you've ever seen and leave you so entranced that you keep coming back for more.

Of course, there's always the "other side" of the ledger ... the one where the Leo energy demands to be worshipped, but does nothing to actually make itself worthy of the adulation. Think of the "Sun Kings" of the former French aristocracy. And think of Leo's opposite sign, Aquarius ... the radical revolutionaries who don't know when to stop.

And so we come back to the Martian sign shift ... and to Egypt, Syria, Greece, Spain. And I remind you, once again, of the overall meaning of the Uranus-Pluto square which remains in effect for the next couple of years and now has the king of the Old Gods, Jupiter, making a Cardinal T-square. Uranus in Aries is radical change challenging plutocratic rulership and support of the status quo, represented by Pluto in Capricorn ... with both of those now being aspected by Jupiter in Cancer - exaggerated defence of homeland security.

The symbolism is everywhere in some nuance or another. Potential problems now arise with the Mars move into Leo. Since one of the symbols of Mars is military aggression ... and Leo is a Fire sign ... we can expect to see many of these political situations literally fired-up again.

So, while the primary shift in energy may be more obvious in world politics, the fallout is likely to be felt in stock markets.

Okay, that's enough of the Spooky background; let's get down to some details in the stuff we're interested in. As I said back in late July, we're probably in a major correction mode. That's very obvious on Asian markets. Some of the European indices have been hitting new peaks.

We'll concentrate on Wall Street again this weekend, however.

The indices declined into the exact timeframe of the Jupiter-Uranus square last week. In last weekend's edition, I published the following chart, with two price-crossing levels to be watched closely midweek.

Pollyanna, the SP500 index, didn't hit the exact price level during NYSE trading hours. Annoyingly, it did do so out-of-hours ... within $3 for the index futures and virtually exactly with the 1631.50 overnight low for the ES-Mini.

Why the bounce occurred where it did is more obvious from another chart. In The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon, I outline the importance of learning how to draw important trend lines, and of taking parallels from the initial line to create high-probability charts for future moves.

Below is Pollyanna's New Moon/Full Moon chart, with thick red bars for the day of the NM and thick blue bars for the dates of the FM. It uses parallel blue trendlines to show the channel the 500 has been rising in since the major rally got underway late last year.

Two things about this chart. The first is that I applied the lesson from The Technical Section ... taking a red parallel of the blue channel lines and anchoring it at the June low. It worked. Perfectly.

The second thing I noticed was that 3 of the previous correction lows came in exactly one day past the Full Moon. And we had a repeat performance there, too. The combination proved strong enough to launch what I believe is a temporary bounceback within a larger-scale correction.

We'll take a closer look at target levels for the bounceback in a moment. Why I believe it's temporary is that the Dow Jones Industrials continues to display a very weak technical condition. While the Dow's price managed to climb back to close the week on its trendline, the health of the Big Bird oscillator continued to deteriorate ... strongly suggesting that this is a major correction which has longer and deeper to run before it's over.

Next we look at an update of another chart from last weekend - Miss Polly's weekly Bi-BB. We've had a bounce from the mid-level, making the first level of the upper tier a reasonable target.

That target level in the early 1680s also comes out a couple of other ways. Firstly, there's an obvious gap at 1684.83. Secondly, there's a routine Fibonacci Retracement level close to that price.

Working in its favour are two other conditions. We are entering the monthly changeover period where markets have a general tendency to be positive - most of the time; and we are in the FM-NM phase which is statistically positive - most of the time.

If I'm correct about what's happening within the bigger picture, the correction will resume once the bounce is finished. We still can't be sure whether it's going to eat Price or Time ... though the technical condition of the Dow certainly suggests the June lows are going to be taken out before this downswing is finished.

But let's not get married to that idea; but rather, continue to watch the charts for clues. If it is going to be a hard-and-fast downswing, the bounce won't last long and won't reach very high. And the ultimate low could be as low as 1520 for Pollyanna. The alternative is that it could eat a lot of Time, without eating very much more in Price.

I'll try, next weekend, to get back to looking at a broader range of indices, especially with the weakness showing up across Asia and particularly India, Indonesia and Malaysia.

However, since it's my home market I will include the ASX200 Weekly Planets chart before I go. But, I also want to say this ... the disclaimer at the end of these reports is not just a lame method of avoiding responsibility. These Eye of Ra reports are actually intended to be educational, rather than advice.

There's nothing in them that isn't explained in The Idiot & The Moon so that you can learn to do it all for yourself. It's pointless adopting me as your "guru", simply to replace someone else. It's your financial future you should be working to protect and that means you should actually be working at it.

It's not particularly hard or strenuous work, folks. There are a few techniques that are relatively simple and easy to learn and which, when properly applied, will help you to make profits most of the time. These weekend editions are nothing more than lessons in how-to apply the lessons from the book in real time, to whatever you're trading.

Since I have an unaspected 5th House Sagittarian Sun, I'd have to confess I'm not exactly averse to putting on a bit of a show; the 5th is the Leo house, after all! But it is a Sagittarian Sun, not a Leo ... I don't want to be your guru; I just want to broaden your horizons so you can become your own.

Here's Auntie's WP:

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013  Sale price 1/2 off!

• Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

• An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

• Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

• Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

And much more...

It is NEVER too late in the year to have this monthly information!
Sale Price $10.00

Price targets for the correction

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 19, 2013

Venus adds weight to the Uranus/Pluto square

The correction I've been warning about finally started to bite deeply last week ... at least on Wall Street.

I indicated last weekend it was becoming difficult to generalise about stock indices because not all markets were moving in the same direction.

The variations continued throughout last week. However, the main show remains Wall Street and that's what we'll be concentrating on this weekend.

The coming week brings an exact hit of Jupiter square Uranus, an aspect which packs enough punch to either turn the markets ... or accelerate the downswing. We'll take a look at the relevant price levels as we go deeper into the charts.

The Sun is nearing the end of its journey through Leo and will enter Virgo. Leo is a "good mood" sign. It likes a show and has rulership over gambling. Virgo is much more picky and critical. Pull the wool over Leo's eyes and all it sees is the fabled golden fleece.

Try pulling the wool over Virgo's eyes and you'll get a sharp slap in the face, along with a nagging lecture about how dirty and unhygenic it is to be playing with that daggy, disgusting piece of animal skin.

And Venus will soon add her weight to the long-running Uranus/Pluto square.

We'll begin this weekend with an update of a chart I used in the July 29 edition - Imminent danger of another fast drop. I indicated then that I thought there was very little upside left in the rally and the potential for some rather severe downside.

At the time I thought the maximum likely reach for the rally was only 1.6% higher at the 1719 Pluto barrier. Pollyanna, the SP500, couldn't quite get there ... and finished last week below the first downside target I marked in the July 29 edition.

For the moment, we cannot be certain whether this correction is going to eat Price or Time. In other words, it could go on for weeks, but not lose a lot of value ... or it could be a fast, deep plunge.

The state of the Dow Jones Industrials tends to favour the second scenario. Below is the DJI Weekly. The negative divergence between the higher Price peaks and the lower Big Bird peaks became very strident.

And there is no sign yet that it's lessening. Notice how the oscillator has now gone below the trough it recorded at the price low in late June?  It's a preliminary warning the chances are high that Price, too, will plunge lower than it did in June.

So, let's take a three-timeframe look at the 500 to try to get some sense of just how low this might go. We'll use the same mechanism across the monthly, weekly and daily trimeframes - the Bi-BB charts with a fast MACD.

For 9 months Pollyanna has been pushing the outer limits of the upside Bollinger Band, with only partial support from the MACD signal lines and at least some disagreement from the peaks in the MACD histogram.

Three previous corrections have declined all the way to the middle of the BBs. That seems a layer too far this time around. But the middle band of the upper tier, currently at 1583, is also close to the 1578 level listed as a target on the first chart.

The weekly Bi-BB chart is next. The top band has started to roll over, underpinning the potential for a significant correction. All corrections since this upleg began in 2011 have broken down through the middle of the bands, which tends to suggest a drop to at least 1590; pretty much in the same league as the 1583/1578 targets from the earlier charts.

And the daily Bi-BB is below. It suggests a bounceback, or at least a sideways consolidation, is very nearby. The reason why that is so is outlined in The Technical Section of  The Idiot & The Moon; a break of the outer bands almost always stalls the move, regardless of whether it's a topside or downside break. The stall need only be temporary.

Now let's look at what could turn it - or accelerate the downswing. The main astrological show this week is Jupiter squaring Uranus. I've been through this a few times in recent weeks and you might want to visit the Archives for a refresher.

The chart below deals only with the current Jupiter/Uranus/Pluto price levels in terms of the "price crossings" currently in range. To be assured of a strong bounce, we would need to see Pollyanna's price hit 1631-1632 fairly exactly on Wednesday/Thursday of this week ... and close higher than that price!

If the price closes below 1607.80 at that time, the downtrend is likely to plunge even deeper.

That's all for this weekend, folks. The Weekly Planets and long-range charts for various indices I've published recently contain valid price targets for other indices and you can check the Archives for those.

For the moment, the primary action is on Wall Street and what happens there is likely to have considerable impact on virtually all other markets.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013  Sale price 1/2 off!

• Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

• An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

• Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

• Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

And much more...

It is NEVER too late in the year to have this monthly information!
Sale Price $10.00

Reviewing the correction ... and long-term

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning July 1, 2013

"Some lessons are very s-l-o-w-l-y learned!"

Late in May, I indicated there was a strong chance stock markets had gone into a correction mode likely to last for several weeks.

In some markets, the correction has been deep and steep; in others the decline has been shallow. Too shallow, in fact - both in terms of time and price.

But regardless of that, we may have reached bounce levels across most of the major world indices.

Last weekend we reviewed the potential for a major trend change to develop this month - if indices continue to follow the major turning points indicated in this year's Bradley Model major dates. If you haven't read it, you can review the edition by scrolling down or clicking here.
This weekend, we'll be taking a look at the status of the current correction and looking again at where we are in a long-range context.

I indicated last weekend that Pollyanna, the SP500, was giving relatively clear signals that we are now probably within the process of topping out the Bull run which got underway in 2009.

At this stage, that's still my view. But, we'll begin this weekend by looking firstly at where we are within the correction.

In late May, I warned against short-term traders taking the usual Long trades between Full Moon and New Moon. I wrote: "Polly has been rising in a clear channel since the Santa Claus rally got underway late last year. A breach of the upside channel line, with negative divergence in the oscillator, puts the index under threat of a retreat to retest the lower trendline."

And so it came to pass ...

Polly spiked briefly down through the lower trendline on Thursday before bouncing strongly on Friday, the last trading day before the New Moon.

click to view larger image

Full Moons are the heavy blue candles, New Moons the red ones. We got a clear V-turn in the oscillator, as we did at the three previous corrections within this rising channel.

But, there's a difference ... two of the price/oscillator turns arrived at Full Moon bottoms and the third one arrived with a 1Q Moon. This bounce has arrived right on New Moon timing, when markets statistically are most bouyant. It's not unusual for rallying markets to continue rising in the statistically negative period between NM and FM, but the rises do tend to muted, at least most of the time.

So, the Friday bounce could be short-lived. We need to pay close attention to price reaction on Tuesday and Wednesday when Venus opposes Pluto and squares Uranus.

In the late May edition, I used a chart of the ASX200 as proxy for what I thought was happening and said: "Technically, it appears to be a high-level Wave 4 underway. This is the last major correction before the final rally of a Bull leg."

I had expected the Elliott Wave Theory of "alernation" to come into play - that the correction could drag out in terms of Time, without necessarily losing quite as much in Price as did the first similar-level correction within the rally out of the spike lows in August/October, 2011.

Wrong! The ASX, and some other indices, just kept diving!

click to view larger image

If this is a high-level Wave 4 correction, it has overshot the Wave 2 decline into June 2012 in terms of Price, but not yet of Time. And the index has breached the important Weekly Planets level at 4744.

That does set up the potential for a bounce from here, even in the face of the negative tendency of the NM-FM phase. It took a few weeks of bouncing about for the last correction of this level to get enough traction to start rising again. Whatever happens, the Weekly Planets price targets for a bounce are clearly marked and likely to be significant.

Now, let's turn our attention again to the bigger picture ... and we'll begin with a look at Pollyanna's long-range monthly. Those of you who've read The Idiot &The Moon will know that one of the techniques outlined in The Technical Section deals with how a particular stock, or index, will repeat the same angles of trend over and over again.

The chart below is simply a slight variation on that theme. I've taken the angle of the current Bull run and applied it to the two previous ones, rather than the other way around - just to see how this one is performing in comparison with the other two.

We can see fairly quickly that this Bull is more like the blow-off Tech Bubble run into 1999/2000. The 2002-2007 Bull run oscillated around this angle, rarely getting too far ahead, or too far behind the trendline.

The earlier bubble run soared away from the line and had deeper corrections to reconnect ... as has this one. The second thing to note is the thin red line connecting the 1999 and 2007 Bull peaks. And that's what Miss Polly came down to retest last week.

click to view larger image

The third thing on the chart to consider is the state of the long-range Canary - the Big Bird. I've inserted a black vertical into the price of the two previous Bull peaks and at the current May peak in Pollyanna. And I repeat the point I made last weekend. The Canary is not dropping off its perch.

The negative divergence build-up going into the first Bull peak developed over a long period. There was a shorter, but nevertheless clear, warning at the 2007 peaks. And, at the moment, we just don't have it for the current Bull run.

Now, let's review where we are in terms of Polly's long-range planetary price markers. I confess I had fully expected Pollyanna to go into a major swoon and exit the stage for a major Chicken Little performance as the index hit the levels between 1464 and 1519.

I'm a fool. Not an Idiot ... because The Idiot and Big Bird continually disagreed with my "astrological expectations". What can I say? The Idiot and that bloody Bird are always a lot smarter than I am!

click to view larger image

Yes, yes. It's enough to give one the ... uhm, irrits. The truly sad thing is that even knowing The Idiot and Big Bird are smarter than I am, I still make that fatal trading error of "thinking" ... even after having gone to the trouble of putting it all in a book so that I, and you, would just shut-up and do what our charts tell us to do, rather than trying to anticipate them. Some lessons are very s-l-o-w-l-y learned!

Ah, well. No time to wallow. Let's take a quick look at the long-range planetary charts for the FTSE and the DAX.

Germany is behaving like Pollyanna, trying desperately to hold onto the long-range breakout level.

click to view larger image

While London went into a deeper dive ...

click to view larger image

Next weekend we'll have another look at what's happening with the Asian indices.

Overall though, we can see that stock indices have declined into apparent bounce levels. Shallow, but obvious, in the case of Pollyanna and the DAX. Deeper, but still obvious, for the ASX and FTSE.

The Bradley Model suggests markets should continue their rally phase into later in June.

And personally I believe that what is "normal" is that indices are now within a topping process where we are going to get jerked around for a few months ... before the Bear comes back. This certainly appears to be a Bernanke-blown bubble. Every piece of bad economic news is greeted as good news because benign Ben will stretch out his QE4-ever program.

I think we getting a taste of it. The slightest hint that the Fed might pull back, and the addicts suffer withdrawal shakes. However, I reiterate my earlier point. "Thinking" just isn't the best tool for trading stock markets. Trendlines, an Idiot and a silly bloody Canary tend to be a lot better at it.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013

• Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

• An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

• Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

• Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

And much more...

It is NEVER too late in the year to have this monthly information!