Sunday, August 4, 2013

Revolution and turmoil ... arriving now

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 5, 2013

Implications of the Cardinal T-square
This week kicks off 9 months of turmoil likely to change the face of security, finance, debt and taxes across large parts of the world.

We'll spend most of this edition looking at the implications of a rare Cardinal T-square involving Jupiter, Uranus and Pluto.

I indicated last weekend stock markets were in imminent danger of another fast drop ... but that the "odds" suggested the bounceback had just a little more time to run.

The dangerous technical conditions I outlined last weekend have not improved ... and we are about to lose the positive tendency which normally occurs over the 6 days straddling the end of one month and the start of another, especially when a New Moon coincides with that timing.

If you missed last weekend's edition, click here. I don't have much to add to that this weekend and the price targets shown in that edition are still valid.

What I think is important this weekend is to look at the big picture and discuss the implications of the Cardinal T-square which is about to unfold.

We are now entering a timeframe where volatility is about to go through the roof. And not just in stock markets. 

At various times over the past couple of years, in these weekly reports and the annual forecasts, I have discussed the nature of the Uranus-Pluto square, an aspect which is repeating continually over a multi-year timeframe.

Basically, it is Uranus in Aries making a challenge to Pluto in Capricorn. In really basic terms, it is angry, aggressive demands for reform aimed at overturning the power of what we might generally describe as Plutocrats determined to preserve the status quo.

Plutocrats is a nice term. It basically means government by the wealthy. But it has many more nuances than that.

Let's do some basic astrological symbolism for those of you unfamiliar with just how deep and complex it is. Uranus exemplifies a rebellious energy. It is extraordinarily stubborn. It sometimes displays flashes of pure brilliance, but is, just as often, totally illogical and immune to rational discussion.

Uranus in Aries is an angry, aggressive, even armed rebel. Can we say ... Libya, Tunisia, Syria, Egypt?

Pluto is the Old God of the Underworld. In his domain, he is absolute ruler. Even the other Old Gods stayed well away from Hades. Pluto is also extraordinarily stubborn. He is a dictator without remorse and with a venomous nature.

Pluto in Capricorn is a dictator absolutely determined to keep hold of the reins of power, money, death and taxes and will use all the power at his disposal ... including the aptly-named Plutonium ... to maintain his privileged position.

So this is the general background of an important phase in world history. We see the themes playing out over-and-over.

The revolutions in the Arab world are at the extreme end. Uranus in Aries is quite literally armed revolt against grossly-rich dictatorships.

We have a couple of more polite manifestations in America ... the Tea Party fighting against the cosy deals of the political elite; Occupy Wall Street fighting against the power of the Wall Street "banksters".

Virtually every nation on the planet is openly embroiled in some form of this energy.

Well, we ain't seen nothing yet! But, we're about to!

Enter Jupiter, head honcho of the Old Gods. In astrological symbolism, Jupiter expands and exaggerates. And in a Cardinal T-square the energy explosion is NOT going to be pretty. It's going to be wild and totally over-the-top.

The aspect has three exact-hit timeframes over the next 9 months, starting in the middle of the coming week. Some parts of the world are, quite literally, going to explode.

And this in spite of the fact that Jupiter is exalted in the sign of Cancer and would, normally, be on his best behaviour. But there is another side to Cancer. It is a sign ruled by the Moon and is generally considered to be a bit "soft" and malleable.

Until it is put under pressure. Cancer is a water sign. On land, water naturally takes the path of least resistance ... it goes with the flow. You can pour water into a container of any shape and it will take the shape of the container.

But there is one thing you cannot do with water - compress it. Even with a little bit of pressure, such as a kitchen tap or a garden hose, water doesn't flow so much as it spurts. Increase the pressure even further, and fail to provide an outlet, and the water will break something to get itself free.

Now, imagine that symbolism massively exaggerated ... Jupiter in Cancer. In totally "normal" mode, the benign Head Honcho in the soft, gently-flowing energy of Cancer is a wonderful symbolism.

But, that is not the appropriate imagery. Because we have two extraordinarily stubborn pressure points ... one intent on violent overthrow and reform and the other a powerful cartel of poisonous Plutocrats determined to keep control at all costs.

It is war, at every level. It is the Self-absorbed "rebels" Bradley Manning and Edward Snowden exposing the dirty hidden secrets of government spy agencies. Nothing will convince Manning and Snowden they did the wrong thing. They ARE Uranus in Aries ... the New Age warriors acting on behalf of "the people" to expose the hidden and secretive manipulations of government (Pluto in Capricorn).

Nothing will convince the NSA and the power elite that Manning and Snowden aren't traitors.

It's a bit like the modern "catch-all" grounds for divorce ... irreconcilable differences. That's what we have everywhere, from Egypt and Syria to Spain and Italy, Greece, Mali, the USA. Even Australia. The manifestation of the energy varies from one region to another, from one type of regime to another, but the overall principle remains the same.

And, starting this week for the next 9 months, Jupiter is about to shine the world's biggest spotlight right at that energy. From a Cardinal water sign ... where any attempt to "keep a lid" on things is going to cause a massive rupture in the pipeline.

Do you feel better now, dear?

No? Oh, tsk*tsk. Well, at least you might be a little better prepared to accept some of the explosions that are coming.

Stock markets are not going to get through this period unscathed.

Jupiter squares to Uranus and oppositions to Pluto don't happen very often. And the market does have a tendency to react strongly. On the chart below, Jupiter-Uranus squares are thick red bars; Jupiter-Pluto oppositions are thick blue bars.

Yes. They do, indeed, dramatically raise the danger levels! Jupiter-Uranus squares were in operation at both previous Bull market tops.

And the last time Jupiter-Pluto oppositions were also involved, things got very, very nasty.
Personally, I think Timing is the most difficult part of stock trading to get exactly right - at least reliably and consistently. I much prefer to deal with Price targets, rather than Time targets.

I've been discussing this in general terms in the past couple of editions ... about how Price has to meet exactly with the Time of a major astrological aspect before we can be reasonably sure of a significant trend change.

And we've been discussing how the technical conditions are now starting to shape up - with the probability of another sharp drop in the very near future, but no clear sign yet that The Top is cemented in place.

If we were plunging into this sort of Jupiter/Uranus/Pluto energy, I'd be looking for signs of positive divergence in the oscillators, getting ready to Buy, Buy, Buy.

But, we're not. We're seeing strong potential for exactly the reverse ... high chances of a repeat of the 1999/2000 and 2007 Bull peaks.

Precisely when we hit this peak I cannot even pretend to predict with any degree of certainty at this stage. For the past few weeks, we've been looking at Price levels with a strong chance of marking The Top ... and we'll continue to look at those as conditions develop.

In the Eye of Ra edition for June 3, available in the Archives, I discussed the Bradley Model major trend change dates for this year ... and expressed the view I thought we were very unlikely to go into multi-month crash mode at the trend change date in mid-June.

I said: "Okay. So why am I at odds with the Bradley forecast and why am I not convinced that we have reached THE top of this Bull run?

Because it wouldn't be "normal". And it's true these markets aren't normal. They're hitting these levels because central banks like the US Federal Reserve have been printing money by the *ahem* helicopter load and dropping it into asset purchases to prop up stock markets.

Nevertheless, it is "normal" for markets to undergo a topping PROCESS. It takes Time. We now have what MIGHT be the first sign that The Top is in the process of being put in place."

I think it may be useful to look again at how the Bradley is performing so far. In the chart below, the blue line is the closing price graph of the SP500 and the green is a tweaked version of the Bradley Model trend change indicator. I stress once more that is is the DATES of the Bradley that are important, not the direction nor the amplitude of its swing. You can see that sometimes the blue and green lines peaked or bottomed very close to each other ... and at other times the Bradley made a peak while the index made a low. In other words it was close enough with the date, but it had the direction "wrong".

The next chart shows the normal version of the Bradley plotted against a weekly closing price graph of the 500. Again we see that sometimes the peaks and troughs coincided exactly and at other times the dates were close, but one was making a high while the other was making a low.

And there is our problem! The Bradley predicted a major trend change due for June 22, a Saturday. The 500 made a correction Low on June 24, the Monday trading day after the Bradley date.

The next major Bradley date doesn't arrive until October. Are we going down into it ... or up into it?!

Yes, it's incredibly bloody irritating, isn't it! If only the index had made a clear-cut High on that date.

But, as I said ... it's why I pay much more attention to Price, as determined by planetary lines or Fibonacci retracements and extensions, and to whether my oddly-coloured Canaries are all singing sweetly or twitching on the floor gasping for clean air.

You can see not one of the three Birds in the oscillator panel on the weekly above is happy with Pollyanna's reaching of new all-time Highs.

And you can see the monthly version of the Birds below. The short-range green and medium-range red Birds ARE getting unhappy, but the blue line, the Big Bird, is still in full songbird mode.

So, putting aside all the angst and analysis, I'm not yet hearing anything other than intermediate-range alarm bells. I think there is VERY strong likelihood of another multi-week correction VERY nearby. I am decidedly iffy about the potential for a crash into October, though August/September can be an extraordinarily volatile timeframe. And I lean heavily, at this stage, towards the view that The Top of the Bull run has not yet been seen.

But, to me, the danger signals are starting to go off all over the place ... and Jupiter's looming confrontation with the Arien rebel forces and the Capricornian Plutocrats sets the stage for Star Wars ... The Reality. There are no endearing Ewoks or shaggy Wookies in this story. There is a Death Star. And it is gonna blow. But probably not just yet.

I indicated last weekend that I'd publish some more Bull targets for other indices this weekend, but I'm out of time ... and the markets probably aren't just yet. So, in the next couple of weeks.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

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