Libran "balance" can be very chaotic!

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning Sept, 30, 2013

Sometimes, the velvet glove just puts a pretty face on the iron fist.

We need to talk about The Spooky Stuff this weekend ... because there's a surprising amount of danger involved.

The Sun is now travelling through Libra and will be joined by the Moon late this week for a New Moon, statistically a high point in market prices.

The New Moon is closely opposed to Uranus and square to Pluto, again setting off the tension we've discussed at length over the past 2 years.

Libra is supposed to be one of the really nice signs of the zodiac. Symbolically, it represents a drive for equity, harmony, fairness, balance and diplomacy. Supposed to be. Sometimes, the velvet glove just puts a pretty face on the iron fist.

Which is precisely what we're seeing again as the Obama White House engages in another battle about debt with the Republican Congress.

Instead of playing nice with each other we see yet more nuances of the Uranus/Pluto square, which pits demands for radical reform against entrenched defence of the status quo. And, perhaps typical of Libra, both sides are on ... both sides.

Obama is determined to get radical reform of healthcare, while raising the debt ceiling to keep the Government functioning; Republicans want radical reform of spending and the scrapping of the healthcare reforms.

All that aside, past performance suggests the Sun travelling through Libra is nearly always a volatile time for the stock market.

The chart below shows the performance of Wall Street's SP500 since the late 1990s, with the red bars depicting the Sun's annual move through Libra.

Libra is one of the Cardinal signs; an action sign. And it does tend to produce some very strong action ... and not much "balance".

There are 14 Libran Sun periods on the chart before the current one ... 9 of them produced significant lows, 2 produced significant highs. That's 11 of the 14 which turned the markets in a very significant way.

With odds like that, it's probably not a good time to nod off. Even the three periods which did not occur with a high or low produced a lot of action ... a strong rally in all three cases.

Our next chart is Pollyanna's New Moon/Full Moon chart. We discussed the implications of this channel last weekend because of the rarity of making a Full Moon price high.

New Moons are the thick red dotted bars (statistical high) and Full Moons are the thick blue bars. Check back through the performance and we can see it's unusual for the SP500 to drop directly into the New Moon. The tendency is to at least bounce for the few days into the NM date; Friday of this coming week.

Remember, too, that we have a Bradley Model trend change date next weekend. Check the Archives for last weekend's edition if you missed it.

You'll notice on the New Moon chart that Polly closed Friday with another visit to the red parallel of the channel she'd been following for most of the year.

It was also a gap-filling, Fibonacci Retracement level of the post-June rally. I indicated early in the year I was starting to keep manual charts for Pollyanna because of the inaccuracy (total lies) of the official figures from the NYSE.

As you can see, the real Opening figures show she's been gapping all over the place for the past few months. While contact with a supportive FiboRx level and the rising trendlines indicates the potential to show a "normal" bounce into the New Moon on Friday (and the Bradley date), there are two very obvious gaps crying to be filled ... the black line at 1672.40 and another down at 1593.79.

Now let's turn our attention to where we are in the bigger picture. Last weekend, I showed a monthly version of the following weekly channel chart and mentioned Big Bird on that chart was only just starting to show signs of negative divergence.

If we apply a general rule of normalcy ... and I emphasised just how normal that monthly chart was ... we cannot transform from Bull to Bear without clearcut divergence in the monthly Big Bird.

But, as I've said, weekly Big Bird has fallen off his perch and is squarking horribly. It's not screaming Bear! ... but it is giving increasingly shrill warning signs of another multi-week correction.

While the chart above uses the simple trendline/channel techniques outlined in The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon, we can also use Andrew's Pitchforks to get a good idea of where we are - and some sense of where we might be going.

The chart below shows both the long-range rising fork and the potential for more relatively near-term declines. Just "eyeball" the chart for the big picture overview.

Because once we see the broad picture, it's easier to spot exactly where we are within the broader context.

We can see Miss Polly topped out two weeks ago with a touch of the central blue tyne of the rising, long-range fork. It was also the place where the last Fibonacci outlier of the falling fork came into play.

We don't really need ALL of these methods. Too many cooks spoil the broth; too many charts befuddle the brain. Still, we see Polly ended the week with a touch of one of the important internal Fibonacci lines of the rising fork.

So, what we seem to have is the potential for what would be a normal New Moon bounce this week. But we also have an intermediate-range Big Bird which is decidedly unhappy with the state of affairs and disagrees very, very strongly with the legitimacy of the recent price rises

We have a significant, month-long Bradley trend change indicated. And we have the potential for the Libran Sun to cause chaos and sharp price moves. Caution, anyone?

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

Putting a number on the sign of the Bear

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning Sept, 22, 2013

..once that line is broken....

For months, various Fed heads have seized almost every opportunity to talk about tapering.

Until last week, when Benny the Benificent did his best Huck Finn impression: Aww, shucks. We wuz just pulling yuh leg.

In plain-speak the message was clear: The American economy is still so deeply in the mire, Ben can't pull the plug on his bubble bath without sending Wall Street down the gurgler.

But Benny is winding-up his term and his blow-up Bull run may well expire with him. The truth is the long-range technical conditions are finally starting to sag.

They are not yet at the stage where the warning sirens are so loud and dangerous that the inevitable collapse seems imminent. And, probably, few of us doubt that Ben will do whatever it takes to prop-up the markets so it doesn't all fall to pieces while his reputation is on the line.

We'll spend this weekend having another look at the big picture position of the SP500 ... and of gold.

Both markets enjoyed a sudden and stellar jump last week, only for it to fade almost as fast as it arrived. In fact, gold finished the week with absolutely no change from the previous week.

And now that the tapering talk seems to have been dismissed as all a big misunderstanding, the street talk has moved on to the next potential crisis ... the official US debt ceiling.

Enough of all that ...

Let's just ignore the constant chatter and look at the state of the charts ... and maybe even try putting a number on the return of the Bear.

Since the last Bear Low in early 2009, Miss Pollyanna has been rising in a clearly-defined channel. In fact, it's really quite remarkable how steady, sane and well-behaved it has been ... something we totally miss when we're caught up in the news cycle and the daily jerks and squiggles.

What is the single most important thing about the chart below? Simple. Every High has been higher than the previous one; every Low has been higher than the previous one.

That's the classical definition of a Bull market. And it stays a Bull until ... a lower Low is made, followed by a lower High.

For the moment, the line-in-the-sand on the SP500 is 1560. Once that line is broken, the odds will have increased dramatically that Wall Street is back in the grip of a Bear market.

Last year, I had expected that the statistical tendency of markets to top out with Jupiter in Taurus was in play. But, I also kept talking about the "elephant in the room" which threatened to poop on my Bear rug ... the lack of any negative divergence signal from the Big Bird oscillator, the 50CCI.

I marked the two key areas with yellow ovals. While there was negative divergence at the 2007 top, there was none last year. Now, however, we are starting to see the first signs of faltering.

But, the final peak for this Bull run might still be months away. We appear to have had an inversion in the Bradley Model. Purely from an eyeball glance.

I have stressed in the past that it is the dates which are paramount with the Bradley; not the size nor the direction of the change. The model for the year suggested a major change of direction around June 22. And, with the benefit of hindsight, it appears to have marked a clear Low, not a High.

 

 As we can see, market prices had been tending to follow the direction of the plotted Bradley line. Yet, the "peak" of June 22-24 ... which predicted a major trend change lasting all the way through to late December ... seems to have timed, virtually perfectly, the last major low.

I've marked the major trend change dates for the rest of the year on the chart. Let me stress again: IGNORE the direction of the plotted line and pay attention to the dates. We cannot guarantee there won't be another inversion. An ongoing rally ... with weakness in October ... seems to "fit" the expectations. Let's just not get married to the idea.

We may also have had a short-term inversion last week ... a relatively rare Full Moon high. Statistically, Full Moons tend to bring in a near-term Low.

In the chart below, Full Moons are the thick blue bars with a dot; New Moons are the dotted red bars. There was really only one previous Full Moon high ... and price went into a sideways shuffle until the next New Moon started a decline.

Another point of interest shown by the NM-FM chart is the obvious deceleration starting to occur - something which is not at all obvious on the monthly channel chart at the start of this weekend's edition.

We can see how, for the first half of this year, Miss Polly rose steadily within a climbing channel. And then it started to breakdown. So, we added a red parallel below the original channel.

And the next breakdown dropped below that red line ... and last week's jump stalled short of climbing back inside the original channel.

Warning signs.

The direction of the next major move in gold is still unclear. Last week's shenanigans had the EW labellers going nuts. No-one seems absolutely certain whether the big correction is over.

In the most basic terms, greenback gold remains locked within the confines of a downtrend channel. There is definite improvement in all three of the Canaries, including Big Bird who has at least reclaimed the "normalcy" zone between the upper and lower red lines which tend to mark oversold and overbought territory.

For a brief period after the Fed's backflip, gold regained the primary Pluto line at 1360 and looked as if might hold it. Until Friday's slump wiped out the gains and left things exactly where they were at the end of the previous week.

Even Goldman Sachs doesn't know what's happening with gold. Last week caused its two most bearish analysists to have a change of heart. They had been warning of a slump down to around $1000. Now they're back talking about the 1400s again.

Looks like even the great GS believed all the taper talk.

Finally, below, the Weekly Planets chart for my home index, the ASX 200. Again, it's had a strong two-week run north, in contravention of the statistical tendency of the NM-FM phase.

After spending a few weeks trapped by the overhead Neptune in the 5130s, the index broke free and hit the Uranus barrier at 5290. Big Bird grows increasingly sick as the price climbs.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

Looking at targets for the bounce

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 26, 2013

Mars in Leo.." because it's Fire, is more obviously aggressive,
in the very broad sense of the word"

Wall Street is in what is probably temporary bounceback mode after dropping into last week's Jupiter-Uranus square.

The volatile moves are likely to continue this week since Venus is now in her second home sign, Libra, and is squaring Jupiter and Pluto while opposing Uranus.

In other words, it's another Grand Square. The two astrological benefics should be especially benign ... because Jupie is exalted in Cancer and Venus is partial to fairness and balance in Libra.

Unfortunately, that's not the only Spooky Stuff happening. Mars is shifting into Leo. The impact of that move may be more obvious in world politics than in stock markets. And I need to digress for a moment ... simply because the former will affect the latter.

When most astrologers talk about Cancer, they reach for the cookbook and waffle about love of family and cooking. Which is okay. But, it's shallow.

What Cancer is really about is security; about cultural, ethnic and tribal roots; about security of the homeland, as much as protection of the home life. Leo symbolises a more outward-looking energy ... and because it's Fire, rather than Water, it's also more obviously aggressive, in the very broad sense of the word.

Leo loves to be adored. Eh! Don't we all. Leo needs to be adored. As one of my Texas Republican friends moans every so often: "Obama is such a Leo!" I think it's intended as an insult!

However, it does serve as a good example of the Leo principles. Needing to be adored, the "good side" of Leo energy will strive to make itself worthy of adulation. It recognises that to be worshipped as a god, one should actually strive to behave like a god. So, on the good side of the ledger, Leo will not only put on a glorious show, it'll put on the best show you've ever seen and leave you so entranced that you keep coming back for more.

Of course, there's always the "other side" of the ledger ... the one where the Leo energy demands to be worshipped, but does nothing to actually make itself worthy of the adulation. Think of the "Sun Kings" of the former French aristocracy. And think of Leo's opposite sign, Aquarius ... the radical revolutionaries who don't know when to stop.

And so we come back to the Martian sign shift ... and to Egypt, Syria, Greece, Spain. And I remind you, once again, of the overall meaning of the Uranus-Pluto square which remains in effect for the next couple of years and now has the king of the Old Gods, Jupiter, making a Cardinal T-square. Uranus in Aries is radical change challenging plutocratic rulership and support of the status quo, represented by Pluto in Capricorn ... with both of those now being aspected by Jupiter in Cancer - exaggerated defence of homeland security.

The symbolism is everywhere in some nuance or another. Potential problems now arise with the Mars move into Leo. Since one of the symbols of Mars is military aggression ... and Leo is a Fire sign ... we can expect to see many of these political situations literally fired-up again.

So, while the primary shift in energy may be more obvious in world politics, the fallout is likely to be felt in stock markets.

Okay, that's enough of the Spooky background; let's get down to some details in the stuff we're interested in. As I said back in late July, we're probably in a major correction mode. That's very obvious on Asian markets. Some of the European indices have been hitting new peaks.

We'll concentrate on Wall Street again this weekend, however.

The indices declined into the exact timeframe of the Jupiter-Uranus square last week. In last weekend's edition, I published the following chart, with two price-crossing levels to be watched closely midweek.

Pollyanna, the SP500 index, didn't hit the exact price level during NYSE trading hours. Annoyingly, it did do so out-of-hours ... within $3 for the index futures and virtually exactly with the 1631.50 overnight low for the ES-Mini.

Why the bounce occurred where it did is more obvious from another chart. In The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon, I outline the importance of learning how to draw important trend lines, and of taking parallels from the initial line to create high-probability charts for future moves.

Below is Pollyanna's New Moon/Full Moon chart, with thick red bars for the day of the NM and thick blue bars for the dates of the FM. It uses parallel blue trendlines to show the channel the 500 has been rising in since the major rally got underway late last year.

Two things about this chart. The first is that I applied the lesson from The Technical Section ... taking a red parallel of the blue channel lines and anchoring it at the June low. It worked. Perfectly.

The second thing I noticed was that 3 of the previous correction lows came in exactly one day past the Full Moon. And we had a repeat performance there, too. The combination proved strong enough to launch what I believe is a temporary bounceback within a larger-scale correction.

We'll take a closer look at target levels for the bounceback in a moment. Why I believe it's temporary is that the Dow Jones Industrials continues to display a very weak technical condition. While the Dow's price managed to climb back to close the week on its trendline, the health of the Big Bird oscillator continued to deteriorate ... strongly suggesting that this is a major correction which has longer and deeper to run before it's over.

Next we look at an update of another chart from last weekend - Miss Polly's weekly Bi-BB. We've had a bounce from the mid-level, making the first level of the upper tier a reasonable target.

That target level in the early 1680s also comes out a couple of other ways. Firstly, there's an obvious gap at 1684.83. Secondly, there's a routine Fibonacci Retracement level close to that price.

Working in its favour are two other conditions. We are entering the monthly changeover period where markets have a general tendency to be positive - most of the time; and we are in the FM-NM phase which is statistically positive - most of the time.

If I'm correct about what's happening within the bigger picture, the correction will resume once the bounce is finished. We still can't be sure whether it's going to eat Price or Time ... though the technical condition of the Dow certainly suggests the June lows are going to be taken out before this downswing is finished.

But let's not get married to that idea; but rather, continue to watch the charts for clues. If it is going to be a hard-and-fast downswing, the bounce won't last long and won't reach very high. And the ultimate low could be as low as 1520 for Pollyanna. The alternative is that it could eat a lot of Time, without eating very much more in Price.

I'll try, next weekend, to get back to looking at a broader range of indices, especially with the weakness showing up across Asia and particularly India, Indonesia and Malaysia.

However, since it's my home market I will include the ASX200 Weekly Planets chart before I go. But, I also want to say this ... the disclaimer at the end of these reports is not just a lame method of avoiding responsibility. These Eye of Ra reports are actually intended to be educational, rather than advice.

There's nothing in them that isn't explained in The Idiot & The Moon so that you can learn to do it all for yourself. It's pointless adopting me as your "guru", simply to replace someone else. It's your financial future you should be working to protect and that means you should actually be working at it.

It's not particularly hard or strenuous work, folks. There are a few techniques that are relatively simple and easy to learn and which, when properly applied, will help you to make profits most of the time. These weekend editions are nothing more than lessons in how-to apply the lessons from the book in real time, to whatever you're trading.

Since I have an unaspected 5th House Sagittarian Sun, I'd have to confess I'm not exactly averse to putting on a bit of a show; the 5th is the Leo house, after all! But it is a Sagittarian Sun, not a Leo ... I don't want to be your guru; I just want to broaden your horizons so you can become your own.

Here's Auntie's WP:

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

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