Caution: FatBoy squares el Weirdo

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning February 24, 2014 

The head honcho of the Old Gods, Jupiter, makes the second exact square with Uranus in the next few days.

Jupiter rules growth, expansion, optimism and Uranus rules technology in general and the stock markets in particular.

Every major astrological aspect between these two almost invariably causes a significant turn in the direction of the markets.

We'll take a look at the history in a moment.

Other stuff is also happening this week. Late in the week, the little mischief-maker, Mercury, goes Direct again as the Sun trines Jupiter (adding extra power to the Jupiter-Uranus square).

It's a weekly version of the Bi-BB charts we've been using for the past few weeks to track the potential for fast moves in short-term trends.

Let's begin, though, with an overview of the big astrological picture. We've chatted at length over the past couple of years about the long-running square between Uranus and Pluto and how these are always present when big, worldwide social shifts are underway.

I won't bore you - or me - by reiterating the symbolism now; other than to say that the "time" when we see actual events occur tends to arrive when that long-running square is triggered by a third planet making an aspect to Uranus or Pluto.

Enter the FatBoy. The chart below is a long-range monthly of Pollyanna, the SP500. Jupiter conjunctions to Uranus are marked with blue bars, trines with green bars, and the squares with red bars.

And all three tend to have a BIG impact. Jupiter lurvs BIG. Study the chart for a few minutes. It's almost uncanny just how often strong Jupiter-Uranus aspects show up as Pollyanna is peaking into long-range tops ... 1968, 1973, 1983, 1987, 2000, 2007. And 2014??

Okay, that's enough of The Spooky Stuff for this week. My Virgo Moon, Miss Prissy, will throw a hissy-fit if I don't pack away the crystal ball and start showing some technical stuff. "Do try to be practical, dear!" So, anyway. For the past few weekends, we've been exploring how to use some lessons from The Technical Section of the book to work out how we should trade some Bi-BB signatures when they make an obvious appearance in the charts. It's all in the Archives. Firstly, let's review last edition's warning about how gold was probably about to take a breather because it had broken the upside band. And ... lo and behold ... that's exactly what we got, at least for a couple of days.

In the longer-term, gold looks to have a lot more rally to come. For the moment, though, I'm just using this as another example of how to apply techniques from The Technical Section to real markets in real time.

Because, while we saw how we could apply these trading rules to both Pollyanna and gold in the daily charts, we are starting to see a similar situation develop now in Pollyanna's weekly Bi-BB chart.

Notice how the bands are starting to pinch together. And remember the first rule ... a rapid tightening of the BBs is a warning that a fast move is approaching. In this case, because it's a weekly chart, the move will probably be of intermediate length, rather than short-term.

I also indicated last weekend that if the rally continued, rather than changing direction at the midpoint of the Mercury Rx phase, the maximum price Pollyanna would hit would be the 1860s.

Since we're in the statistically-positive period between 3Q and New Moon ... and with the Sun due to trine Jupiter ... 1864 remains a valid target for the coming week.

But first, it would have to overcome a Weekly Planets barrier - a double Saturn zone which stopped the two previous attempts to break northwards.

And our Big Bird oscillator is, so far, distinctly unhappy with this testing of the previous Highs!

Also, we've been discussing how the SP500 is currently trapped between rising and falling primary planet lines belonging to the Sun, Mercury and Venus.

Mercury is the two sets of pink lines and Miss Polly played with the falling Mercury line all last week.

Now, let's swap hemispheres for a look at my home market, Australia. The ASX 200 closed the previous week with a break above a Weekly Planets Saturn barrier in the early 5330s ... and is trying to reach the next Saturn/Uranus zone between 5466 and 5504.

We have 3 Canaries in the oscillator panel - 6, 14 and 50 CCIs. The most important is the 50 - Big Bird - which is suggesting one of those prices should be hit.

The green oscillator is the 6 - Fast Bird; and the red is the 14 - Medium Bird. It is already rolling over, suggesting the end of this rally is now very close.

And there's a technical validation for that, too. Below is Auntie's long-range monthly showing Fibonacci Retracement levels; red for the Bull run from the early 2000s into the 2007 top and blue for the Bear collapse into 2009.

It's fairly obvious from even a quick look just how important one or the other of these FiboRx levels have been during the past 5 years.

Short story: Auntie is AT strong resistance and the long-range Big Bird is distinctly unhappy. Now, we have been waiting for EXACTLY this technical condition to start showing up ... higher price Highs with a lower Big Bird high! Negative divergence - on a long-range, monthly chart, warning that the Bull is getting ready to morph into a Bear.

We're not about to wave our arms around and call Abracadabra! just yet. A breakout could rush Auntie up another 400 points (and perhaps worsen the Big Bird divergence in doing it).

But, but ... start putting these technical conditions together with the track record of the FatBoy making aspects with the Weirdo and we see why it's finally nearing time to be very, very cautious.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014

Potential for a golden bounce

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning December 2, 2013

Mars in Libra has a tendency to drive gold prices

America and Germany push to new highs. Again. Pretty much alone. Still.
Very little changed, which isn't odd with Wall Street effectively in Thanksgiving holiday mode from midweek.

What might have changed is gold. We'll have a closer look at that in the main part of this weekend's edition.

This week kicks off with the Sagittarian New Moon. The Moon in Sadge almost always signals a couple of wide-range days for stocks; usually up, but if the fear mode gets exaggerated ...

The Sun is already in Sagittarius and it'll be joined in the sign midweek by Mercury.

But it's the Mars move to Libra, which gets underway next weekend, that's the really volatile astrological signal for months ahead.

Mars takes a couple of years to travel the full zodiac, which means it normally spends only 6 to 8 weeks in each sign. Not this time. Because it'll be going Retrograde, Mars will be in Libra for 7 months.

Traditionally, Mars is in its detriment in Libra. Without any negative meaning at all, Mars is THE Self-ish planet. It's all about Ego and aggro.

And Libra isn't. It's sugar and spice and all things nice. So, astrologers tend to think Mars in Libra is a woosie pussy. It ain't so.

Mars in Libra simply has better table manners. Operating at its best symbolism, the Libran Marshun is a charming diplomat who can diffuse difficult situations with a gentle touch, a warm smile and a genuine drive to find co-operative solutions which are fair to everyone.

Oh, yeah! Looking forward to that little love fest between Barack, Bachmann and Boehner.

As soon as he enters Venus's territory, the Old God of war sets the scene for a Cardinal Grand Cross, the most highly-charged of all astrological aspects.

We will have Uranus in Aries, Jupiter in Cancer, Mars in Libra and Pluto in Capricorn.

Uranus in Aries = demands for radical reform and armed rebellion against the ruling elites.

Jupiter in Cancer = exaggerated defence of home, homeland and security.

Mars in Libra = smiling aggression, but aggression nevertheless, aimed at fighting for fair and equitable outcomes.

Pluto in Capricorn = the plutocrats prepare to raze the peasants' hovels and salt their fields if they don't pay their taxes and turn a blind eye to the elite's overwhelming desire to preserve the status quo and retain control of government and the "Establishment".

Since all four Cardinal signs are action signs, the next few months will be the last chance to resolve some of these debt/tax/power issues amicably. Mars in Libra can be the ultimate smoothy. But, he's still Mars ... still the Old God of war.  Gee,Zeus ... let's hope these issues actually do get settled before Mars moves into ... gasp*shock*horror ... Scorpio!!!!

Some people believe the Romans used to specifically select soldiers with their natal Mars in Aries to lead assaults. It's not true. The generals wanted shocktroopers with Mars in Scorpio. No retreat. No surrender. No mercy.

But, but ... we're not really here for tall tales of olden times.

Mars in Libra has a tendency to drive gold prices. They can be very volatile periods, even during Mars' short runs through the sign. This time, he'll be there for months.

I indicated last weekend that gold made its last pronounced high during a Venus-Jupiter aspect and that there was some potential for last week's Venus-Jupiter opposition to bring in a sustainable low.

It is possible that's the case. But, it's not without danger. In Forecast 2013, I introduced planetary charts for gold for the first time. It tends to travel within Sun channels between Pluto stations. Last week, it just may have caught a break from a rising Sun line close to the mid-1200 Pluto line.

Using the non-Spooky technical tool of Fibonacci Retracements, gives us another reason to consider being Long on gold or the miners. Price has been making an effort to hold the line at a 764 Rx level.

Two of our oscillator "Birds" like the action and are suggesting more northside movement is probable ... the fast green and the medium red. Big Bird, the blue, also seems to be starting to sing a little more sweetly.

The danger is that gold remains in a confirmed downtrend ... and the channel chart below shows it has a lot of work to do before we could be reasonably certain that a sustained and long-term new uptrend has started.

However, within that down channel, there is another sign of potential improvement. On a weekly basis, the price has again breached the bottom of the Bi-BBs. If you've read The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon, you'll know this has a tendency to either stall the current trend, or turn it the other way - even if only temporarily.

The midnight cowboys continue to conduct big downside trades in the wee hours and that danger will continue until gold recovers enough to undo all the technical damage.

But, for the adventurous, it could be worth considering the bounce. You most certainly need a Stop Loss!! However, the weekly Bi-BB chart and the planetary and Fibonacci daily charts earlier, show the upside targets.

Safe trading - RA

Astrologicalinvesting.com note:  Randall Ashbourne's Forecast 2014 will be available to purchase in January 2014 at 
www.astrologicalinvesting.com  as well as www.theidiotandthemoon.com 

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Randall Ashbourne's Forecast 2014 will be available to purchase at www.astrologicalinvesting.com/html/shop.htmlwww.astrologicalinvesting.com  as well as www.theidiotandthemoon.com 


(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

Putting a number on the sign of the Bear

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning Sept, 22, 2013

..once that line is broken....

For months, various Fed heads have seized almost every opportunity to talk about tapering.

Until last week, when Benny the Benificent did his best Huck Finn impression: Aww, shucks. We wuz just pulling yuh leg.

In plain-speak the message was clear: The American economy is still so deeply in the mire, Ben can't pull the plug on his bubble bath without sending Wall Street down the gurgler.

But Benny is winding-up his term and his blow-up Bull run may well expire with him. The truth is the long-range technical conditions are finally starting to sag.

They are not yet at the stage where the warning sirens are so loud and dangerous that the inevitable collapse seems imminent. And, probably, few of us doubt that Ben will do whatever it takes to prop-up the markets so it doesn't all fall to pieces while his reputation is on the line.

We'll spend this weekend having another look at the big picture position of the SP500 ... and of gold.

Both markets enjoyed a sudden and stellar jump last week, only for it to fade almost as fast as it arrived. In fact, gold finished the week with absolutely no change from the previous week.

And now that the tapering talk seems to have been dismissed as all a big misunderstanding, the street talk has moved on to the next potential crisis ... the official US debt ceiling.

Enough of all that ...

Let's just ignore the constant chatter and look at the state of the charts ... and maybe even try putting a number on the return of the Bear.

Since the last Bear Low in early 2009, Miss Pollyanna has been rising in a clearly-defined channel. In fact, it's really quite remarkable how steady, sane and well-behaved it has been ... something we totally miss when we're caught up in the news cycle and the daily jerks and squiggles.

What is the single most important thing about the chart below? Simple. Every High has been higher than the previous one; every Low has been higher than the previous one.

That's the classical definition of a Bull market. And it stays a Bull until ... a lower Low is made, followed by a lower High.

For the moment, the line-in-the-sand on the SP500 is 1560. Once that line is broken, the odds will have increased dramatically that Wall Street is back in the grip of a Bear market.

Last year, I had expected that the statistical tendency of markets to top out with Jupiter in Taurus was in play. But, I also kept talking about the "elephant in the room" which threatened to poop on my Bear rug ... the lack of any negative divergence signal from the Big Bird oscillator, the 50CCI.

I marked the two key areas with yellow ovals. While there was negative divergence at the 2007 top, there was none last year. Now, however, we are starting to see the first signs of faltering.

But, the final peak for this Bull run might still be months away. We appear to have had an inversion in the Bradley Model. Purely from an eyeball glance.

I have stressed in the past that it is the dates which are paramount with the Bradley; not the size nor the direction of the change. The model for the year suggested a major change of direction around June 22. And, with the benefit of hindsight, it appears to have marked a clear Low, not a High.

 

 As we can see, market prices had been tending to follow the direction of the plotted Bradley line. Yet, the "peak" of June 22-24 ... which predicted a major trend change lasting all the way through to late December ... seems to have timed, virtually perfectly, the last major low.

I've marked the major trend change dates for the rest of the year on the chart. Let me stress again: IGNORE the direction of the plotted line and pay attention to the dates. We cannot guarantee there won't be another inversion. An ongoing rally ... with weakness in October ... seems to "fit" the expectations. Let's just not get married to the idea.

We may also have had a short-term inversion last week ... a relatively rare Full Moon high. Statistically, Full Moons tend to bring in a near-term Low.

In the chart below, Full Moons are the thick blue bars with a dot; New Moons are the dotted red bars. There was really only one previous Full Moon high ... and price went into a sideways shuffle until the next New Moon started a decline.

Another point of interest shown by the NM-FM chart is the obvious deceleration starting to occur - something which is not at all obvious on the monthly channel chart at the start of this weekend's edition.

We can see how, for the first half of this year, Miss Polly rose steadily within a climbing channel. And then it started to breakdown. So, we added a red parallel below the original channel.

And the next breakdown dropped below that red line ... and last week's jump stalled short of climbing back inside the original channel.

Warning signs.

The direction of the next major move in gold is still unclear. Last week's shenanigans had the EW labellers going nuts. No-one seems absolutely certain whether the big correction is over.

In the most basic terms, greenback gold remains locked within the confines of a downtrend channel. There is definite improvement in all three of the Canaries, including Big Bird who has at least reclaimed the "normalcy" zone between the upper and lower red lines which tend to mark oversold and overbought territory.

For a brief period after the Fed's backflip, gold regained the primary Pluto line at 1360 and looked as if might hold it. Until Friday's slump wiped out the gains and left things exactly where they were at the end of the previous week.

Even Goldman Sachs doesn't know what's happening with gold. Last week caused its two most bearish analysists to have a change of heart. They had been warning of a slump down to around $1000. Now they're back talking about the 1400s again.

Looks like even the great GS believed all the taper talk.

Finally, below, the Weekly Planets chart for my home index, the ASX 200. Again, it's had a strong two-week run north, in contravention of the statistical tendency of the NM-FM phase.

After spending a few weeks trapped by the overhead Neptune in the 5130s, the index broke free and hit the Uranus barrier at 5290. Big Bird grows increasingly sick as the price climbs.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

Unexpected danger signals in gold

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning Sept, 16, 2013

"..maybe the leprechauns are just ticked off about
how much it costs to fill those rainbow-end pots?"

The hardest thing for a trader to admit ... to himself ... is that he got it wrong.

So here I am this week, face covered in egg, having to bash my Ego into submission and accept the evidence of the charts that gold is not doing what it should be doing if it's now in the first upleg of a new multi-year Bull run.

It may yet turn out that way. However, when it comes to a choice between protecting my Ego, or protecting my capital, I'm afraid E-boy needs to be whacked with an iron bar and forced back into his box.

He might not like it ... but he has to accept the reality that if the bank account gets bashed too badly, he's going to end up feeling bruised and battered anyway.

So, this weekend we will be taking a brief look at stocks and a much closer look at gold.

Many gold traders have been operating under the assumption that a large-scale, long-term Low was posted late in June when the price of gold spiked down into the 1180 Pluto zone and began bouncing strongly.

And there's still a chance that assumption is correct. But it's now open to question and until the question is clearly resolved, one way or the other, my prissy 2nd House Virgo Moon is waving her broomstick at my unaspected 5th House Sagittarian Sun.

I call her Miss Prissy - and she's a dreadful nag. No fun at all. But, she's also my only Earth planet and, as such, the rest of "us" rely on her to keep us grounded. We all have Virgo somewhere in our charts ... and should be eternally gratefull that we do!

This may seem like a digression. In fact, it IS going to be a digression! Loath as I am to cite Miley Cyrus, of all people, "it's my mouth and I'll say what I want to!"

Often, I chat about The Spooky Stuff and the potential impact of current transits on stock markets or world politics. That's a branch called "mundane" astrology.

Personal astrology is more intimate. Basically, our Sun sign has a lot to say about what sort of Ego we have; the Moon deals with our emotional needs; Mercury by sign and aspect can give us insights into how our brain operates differently from others; Mars, what level of energy we have and where we're most likely to be most active. And so on.

It can actually be very useful to get to know the individual personalities within our overall persona. Even those who know nothing about astrology would probably recognise this sort of statement: "Sometimes, I get a feeling that ..."

For those who DO know about astrology, they'll probably recognise exactly who is responsible for the "feeling".

"Sometimes, I get a feeling that I'd like to punch his head in!" ... is probably your Mars telling you it's in open conflict with someone's else's Mars. If your Mars happens to be in an aggressive sign, with hard aspects to Uranus or Pluto, you may well punch first and feel later! If it's in Libra, conjunct Neptune, you'd like to punch his head in, but you're very unlikely to, because the natural tendency of your Mars is to act diplomatically and try to find common ground.

If your Sun is in one of the Fire signs - Aries, Leo, or Sagittarius - you're more likely to take risks. Sagittarian Suns take BIG risks. And, since an unaspected planet is a very pure form of the basic energy, an unaspected 5th House Sagittarian Sun will sometimes take enormous risks, specifically related to financial speculation.

I'm really lucky. Because I have a Cancer Ascendant, my chart "ruler" is the Moon ... the nagging Virgo bitch who lives in the 2nd House (of money!) screeching about how that idiot Sagittarian gambler is going to bankrupt us all. So, when I "sometimes get a feeling that ..." my wildly optimistic outlook might need to be tempered and toned down, I know exactly who is talking ... the eminently sensible and practical Miss Prissy is telling me to shut-up, sit down and look very carefully at the charts. Miss Prissy and "I" have reached an accord.

"She" tries to stay off the smelling salts when "I" take risks ... and I try not to take silly risks, and consult closely with Prissy about where to put the loss stops so we don't both end up in the poor house because my Ego is off on a romp.

I go through this exercise just to give you an inkling of how individual components of our personality can co-operate with each other, or fight against each other, in everything we do - including our approach to the risk and reward ratios of stock market trading.

There's a good website which provides free charts and readings - http://www.astro.com/ - without also subjecting you to a barrage of ongoing emails. If you "sometimes get a feeling that ...", knowing the personality of which of your planets is wanting to be heard can be very useful.

Okay. Now, let's get down to what we're really here for ...

I indicated last weekend I thought gold was about to launch into a rally which would confirm that a major, multi-year Low in the gold price was posted at $1180 in late June.

However, the slump in gold prices last week indicates that scenario might be very, very wrong. Let's start with a update of the daily Sun/Pluto chart from last weekend.

I believed gold was about to launch higher in an Elliott 5-wave Bullish pattern. In Elliott Wave theory, a corrective Wave 4 cannot decline into the territory of the Wave 1 peak. That Wave 1 peak was where Miss Prissy and I decided to put our loss stop, having taken a fairly large Long position during the bounce on September 6.

The Bullish count on the chart below is now severely broken.  There's a chance this could morph into one of those EW patterns that only expert acolytes can count.  I'm not one of them.

What seemed clear and obvious last weekend is no longer so. Maybe this is a "blip" caused by the unlikely apparition of Vlad The Peacemaker; maybe it's more manipulation by those esteemed folk who can't seem to find exactly where they stored Germany's several hundred tons of gold; and maybe the leprechauns are just ticked off about how much it costs to fill those rainbow-end pots.

What is clear is that the "certainty" factor just got pulled out from under us. When an ABC corrective downleg completes, there is only one option in Elliott Wave terms - a new Bull run. If that Bull run stalls at exactly the point it should not stall, we really need to put our expectations off to one side and have another look at whether the ABC correction is actually finished.

And that's what we'll do. The chart below is a weekly, dealing primarily with the large-scale correction which got underway after gold made its High around $1900 in early September, 2011.

The dramatic pick-up in the state of the oscillators since the Low in late June certainly suggests The Low is in place. But having price turned down so swiftly and sharply after contact with a falling overhead trendline means it would be foolish to ignore the alternative scenario.

There are some ardent gold traders who believe the market is being manipulated down once again. And, apparently, Goldman Sachs is tipping a $1000 price tag for gold in the next few months.

If we use an Andrew's Pitchfork, it also shows fairly strong evidence that the hardline optimists among us may have got it wrong sticking a C count on the June bottom.

The recovery in the fast MACD mirrors the improved condition of the Canary oscillators on the earlier chart. There's almost no doubt at all that it's going to be possible to make a lot of money from being Long on gold and gold stocks ... if we can get the timing right!

Normally, I don't worry too much about technical charts for gold, relying on the Sun/Pluto mechanisms I revealed in this year's Forecast. I had expected this to rise into the mid 1400s or even early 1500s before a substantial pullback occurred. Now, we're probably trying to find a reliable downside price point to stop the drop.

I've added a couple of the channel lines from the earlier chart to the weekly Sun/Pluto chart to see where the purely technical levels line up with planetary prices, especially if gold is now locked into another significant downleg.

Even if that's what is now happening, it'll take some time to get there. In the meantime, until the overall position becomes more certain, we'll have to rely on short-term charts. We've had a Friday bounce from the 50% marker of the post-June upleg. If it occurs in the right place, a bounce from that marker can indicate the uptrend is still intact.

This one appears not to be in the right place, so I'm very cautious about just how strongly it's likely to bounce.

The long tail on Friday's bar indicates some buying support at that low. But, it may only be temporary ... especially with the Fed due to make a statement on tapering this week; options expiration; and the Syrian sarin issue.

Finally, a quick look at Pollyanna - the SP500. I indicated in the past couple of weeks I thought Polly was in temporary bounce mode within a larger-scale correction - with a bounce target ranging from 1658 to 1690. The index has stalled at the upside of the range. If that's it for the bounce and another downleg is due to complete the corrective pattern, the most likely targets remain 1580 to the early 1600s, as we discussed last weekend.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

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Revolution and turmoil ... arriving now

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 5, 2013

Implications of the Cardinal T-square

This week kicks off 9 months of turmoil likely to change the face of security, finance, debt and taxes across large parts of the world.

We'll spend most of this edition looking at the implications of a rare Cardinal T-square involving Jupiter, Uranus and Pluto.

I indicated last weekend stock markets were in imminent danger of another fast drop ... but that the "odds" suggested the bounceback had just a little more time to run.

The dangerous technical conditions I outlined last weekend have not improved ... and we are about to lose the positive tendency which normally occurs over the 6 days straddling the end of one month and the start of another, especially when a New Moon coincides with that timing.

If you missed last weekend's edition, click here. I don't have much to add to that this weekend and the price targets shown in that edition are still valid.

What I think is important this weekend is to look at the big picture and discuss the implications of the Cardinal T-square which is about to unfold.

We are now entering a timeframe where volatility is about to go through the roof. And not just in stock markets. 

At various times over the past couple of years, in these weekly reports and the annual forecasts, I have discussed the nature of the Uranus-Pluto square, an aspect which is repeating continually over a multi-year timeframe.

Basically, it is Uranus in Aries making a challenge to Pluto in Capricorn. In really basic terms, it is angry, aggressive demands for reform aimed at overturning the power of what we might generally describe as Plutocrats determined to preserve the status quo.

Plutocrats is a nice term. It basically means government by the wealthy. But it has many more nuances than that.

Let's do some basic astrological symbolism for those of you unfamiliar with just how deep and complex it is. Uranus exemplifies a rebellious energy. It is extraordinarily stubborn. It sometimes displays flashes of pure brilliance, but is, just as often, totally illogical and immune to rational discussion.

Uranus in Aries is an angry, aggressive, even armed rebel. Can we say ... Libya, Tunisia, Syria, Egypt?

Pluto is the Old God of the Underworld. In his domain, he is absolute ruler. Even the other Old Gods stayed well away from Hades. Pluto is also extraordinarily stubborn. He is a dictator without remorse and with a venomous nature.

Pluto in Capricorn is a dictator absolutely determined to keep hold of the reins of power, money, death and taxes and will use all the power at his disposal ... including the aptly-named Plutonium ... to maintain his privileged position.

So this is the general background of an important phase in world history. We see the themes playing out over-and-over.

The revolutions in the Arab world are at the extreme end. Uranus in Aries is quite literally armed revolt against grossly-rich dictatorships.

We have a couple of more polite manifestations in America ... the Tea Party fighting against the cosy deals of the political elite; Occupy Wall Street fighting against the power of the Wall Street "banksters".

Virtually every nation on the planet is openly embroiled in some form of this energy.

Well, we ain't seen nothing yet! But, we're about to!

Enter Jupiter, head honcho of the Old Gods. In astrological symbolism, Jupiter expands and exaggerates. And in a Cardinal T-square the energy explosion is NOT going to be pretty. It's going to be wild and totally over-the-top.

The aspect has three exact-hit timeframes over the next 9 months, starting in the middle of the coming week. Some parts of the world are, quite literally, going to explode.

And this in spite of the fact that Jupiter is exalted in the sign of Cancer and would, normally, be on his best behaviour. But there is another side to Cancer. It is a sign ruled by the Moon and is generally considered to be a bit "soft" and malleable.

Until it is put under pressure. Cancer is a water sign. On land, water naturally takes the path of least resistance ... it goes with the flow. You can pour water into a container of any shape and it will take the shape of the container.

But there is one thing you cannot do with water - compress it. Even with a little bit of pressure, such as a kitchen tap or a garden hose, water doesn't flow so much as it spurts. Increase the pressure even further, and fail to provide an outlet, and the water will break something to get itself free.

Now, imagine that symbolism massively exaggerated ... Jupiter in Cancer. In totally "normal" mode, the benign Head Honcho in the soft, gently-flowing energy of Cancer is a wonderful symbolism.

But, that is not the appropriate imagery. Because we have two extraordinarily stubborn pressure points ... one intent on violent overthrow and reform and the other a powerful cartel of poisonous Plutocrats determined to keep control at all costs.

It is war, at every level. It is the Self-absorbed "rebels" Bradley Manning and Edward Snowden exposing the dirty hidden secrets of government spy agencies. Nothing will convince Manning and Snowden they did the wrong thing. They ARE Uranus in Aries ... the New Age warriors acting on behalf of "the people" to expose the hidden and secretive manipulations of government (Pluto in Capricorn).

Nothing will convince the NSA and the power elite that Manning and Snowden aren't traitors.

It's a bit like the modern "catch-all" grounds for divorce ... irreconcilable differences. That's what we have everywhere, from Egypt and Syria to Spain and Italy, Greece, Mali, the USA. Even Australia. The manifestation of the energy varies from one region to another, from one type of regime to another, but the overall principle remains the same.

And, starting this week for the next 9 months, Jupiter is about to shine the world's biggest spotlight right at that energy. From a Cardinal water sign ... where any attempt to "keep a lid" on things is going to cause a massive rupture in the pipeline.

Do you feel better now, dear?

No? Oh, tsk*tsk. Well, at least you might be a little better prepared to accept some of the explosions that are coming.

Stock markets are not going to get through this period unscathed.

Jupiter squares to Uranus and oppositions to Pluto don't happen very often. And the market does have a tendency to react strongly. On the chart below, Jupiter-Uranus squares are thick red bars; Jupiter-Pluto oppositions are thick blue bars.

Yes. They do, indeed, dramatically raise the danger levels! Jupiter-Uranus squares were in operation at both previous Bull market tops.

And the last time Jupiter-Pluto oppositions were also involved, things got very, very nasty.

Personally, I think Timing is the most difficult part of stock trading to get exactly right - at least reliably and consistently. I much prefer to deal with Price targets, rather than Time targets.

I've been discussing this in general terms in the past couple of editions ... about how Price has to meet exactly with the Time of a major astrological aspect before we can be reasonably sure of a significant trend change.

And we've been discussing how the technical conditions are now starting to shape up - with the probability of another sharp drop in the very near future, but no clear sign yet that The Top is cemented in place.

If we were plunging into this sort of Jupiter/Uranus/Pluto energy, I'd be looking for signs of positive divergence in the oscillators, getting ready to Buy, Buy, Buy.

But, we're not. We're seeing strong potential for exactly the reverse ... high chances of a repeat of the 1999/2000 and 2007 Bull peaks.

Precisely when we hit this peak I cannot even pretend to predict with any degree of certainty at this stage. For the past few weeks, we've been looking at Price levels with a strong chance of marking The Top ... and we'll continue to look at those as conditions develop.

In the Eye of Ra edition for June 3, available in the Archives, I discussed the Bradley Model major trend change dates for this year ... and expressed the view I thought we were very unlikely to go into multi-month crash mode at the trend change date in mid-June.

I said: "Okay. So why am I at odds with the Bradley forecast and why am I not convinced that we have reached THE top of this Bull run?

Because it wouldn't be "normal". And it's true these markets aren't normal. They're hitting these levels because central banks like the US Federal Reserve have been printing money by the *ahem* helicopter load and dropping it into asset purchases to prop up stock markets.

Nevertheless, it is "normal" for markets to undergo a topping PROCESS. It takes Time. We now have what MIGHT be the first sign that The Top is in the process of being put in place."

I think it may be useful to look again at how the Bradley is performing so far. In the chart below, the blue line is the closing price graph of the SP500 and the green is a tweaked version of the Bradley Model trend change indicator. I stress once more that is is the DATES of the Bradley that are important, not the direction nor the amplitude of its swing. You can see that sometimes the blue and green lines peaked or bottomed very close to each other ... and at other times the Bradley made a peak while the index made a low. In other words it was close enough with the date, but it had the direction "wrong".

The next chart shows the normal version of the Bradley plotted against a weekly closing price graph of the 500. Again we see that sometimes the peaks and troughs coincided exactly and at other times the dates were close, but one was making a high while the other was making a low.

And there is our problem! The Bradley predicted a major trend change due for June 22, a Saturday. The 500 made a correction Low on June 24, the Monday trading day after the Bradley date.

The next major Bradley date doesn't arrive until October. Are we going down into it ... or up into it?!

Yes, it's incredibly bloody irritating, isn't it! If only the index had made a clear-cut High on that date.

But, as I said ... it's why I pay much more attention to Price, as determined by planetary lines or Fibonacci retracements and extensions, and to whether my oddly-coloured Canaries are all singing sweetly or twitching on the floor gasping for clean air.

You can see not one of the three Birds in the oscillator panel on the weekly above is happy with Pollyanna's reaching of new all-time Highs.

And you can see the monthly version of the Birds below. The short-range green and medium-range red Birds ARE getting unhappy, but the blue line, the Big Bird, is still in full songbird mode.

So, putting aside all the angst and analysis, I'm not yet hearing anything other than intermediate-range alarm bells. I think there is VERY strong likelihood of another multi-week correction VERY nearby. I am decidedly iffy about the potential for a crash into October, though August/September can be an extraordinarily volatile timeframe. And I lean heavily, at this stage, towards the view that The Top of the Bull run has not yet been seen.

But, to me, the danger signals are starting to go off all over the place ... and Jupiter's looming confrontation with the Arien rebel forces and the Capricornian Plutocrats sets the stage for Star Wars ... The Reality. There are no endearing Ewoks or shaggy Wookies in this story. There is a Death Star. And it is gonna blow. But probably not just yet.

I indicated last weekend that I'd publish some more Bull targets for other indices this weekend, but I'm out of time ... and the markets probably aren't just yet. So, in the next couple of weeks.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013  Sale price 1/2 off!

• Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

• An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

• Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

• Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

And much more...

It is NEVER too late in the year to have this monthly information!
Sale Price $10.00

Bounceback potential in stocks and gold

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning June 24, 2013

World stock indices and the price of gold are hitting, or are very close to hitting, prices which have the potential to produce a bounceback.

However, the situation overall remains dangerous and complex as both technical conditions and the astrological weather deteriorate.

We have a lot to consider this weekend; most especially whether we are now in the early stages of a developing Bear market in stocks.

But we will begin by reviewing where we are in terms of the correction which started, for most indices, late in May. I indicated then that: "There's a strong chance stock markets have gone into correction mode likely to last for several weeks."

For the past few weekends, as we tracked the decline in European and Asian indices, I've also indicated: "At a glance, the correction on Wall Street still seems to be too shallow, in terms of both Price and Time, to be realistic - especially considering the rapid, steep declines in most other major indices."

And I said last weekend: "Jupiter energy takes centre stage this week, when the fires of optimism will be stoked again ... or the fear will be."

We got the fear mode, which finally produced a Wall Street decline which is much more realistic in terms of an intermediate correction.

It now may be nearing bounceback levels. I would prefer to see a low form in the SP500 in the price range from 1570 to 1540, since the decline still seems a little short of the mark.

However, some of the other world indices are starting to display positive divergence sufficient enough to produce at least a bounce.

But the astrological weather ahead in the next few weeks is full of turmoil ... and we have reached a major Bradley Model turn date. I will leave discussion of The Spooky Stuff until later in this edition.

Since it's the easiest to deal with, we'll begin with a quick look at gold. Long-range, it has hit an important Fibonacci Retracement level.

click for larger image

Purely from a technical perspective, this is a normal retracement which, if it holds, keeps the long-term uptrend in a strong position. And it should hold, at least for a relatively strong bounce. The danger is that the long-range oscillator continues its deep dive.

From a planetary perspective, gold has lost the primary Pluto line at 1360 and a primary Sun line - with last week's drop taking price down to a secondary Pluto level. The potential good news is that not only has it now hit a long-range FiboRx price, but it has dipped into Pluto prices with a third instance of positive divergence in the oscillator, though it is mild divergence rather than strident.

click for larger image

There is one other factor which could help to produce a bounce ... Heliocentric Mercury goes into Sagittarius this weekend for a brief visit into early July. It's a position which frequently causes a gold rally. It's not a certainty, but as we can see from the weekly gold price chart below, it does tend to have an impact.

click for larger image

Now let's turn our attention to Pollyanna, the SP500. Well, Polly actually ran screaming from the stage last week for a Chicken Little revival. As usual, Wall Street was more than a day late and a lot more than a dollar short in doing what everyone else was sure of weeks ago.

There is a reason I call the SP500 Pollyanna ... or The Vacuous Troll. However, reality finally dawned that Benign Ben isn't going to drop money from helicopters in QE4ever.

The index finally dropped out of the uptrend channel which has defined the rally since it launched late last year. The drop has taken it down into a potential Full Moon low, which is a statistical tendency. The only thing that concerns me is I'd have preferred to see it hit price levels from 1570 to 1540.

click for larger image

Now let's look at the index in terms of the wider rally channel in play since the bottom of the Bear crash in 2009. While it has lost the intermediate-term rally angle, it came to rest at the end of the week with a little bounce from one of the long-term channel markers.

click for larger image

The bad news is that the long-range Canary, the Big Bird, has dipped below the upper red line in the oscillator panel, which is a clear warning the inner technical strength of the Bull run is starting to fade again.

Now I have been indicating since late May that I thought this was going to be an intermediate-length correction, lasting probably 5 to 8 weeks. There is a chance it is something much worse. However, there are no major warning signs on the monthly charts, so I'm still leaning towards the optimistic outcome ... which is that this is the last major correction before the final, the last, rally of this Bull run.

But ... two things. Firstly, the combined impact of Neptune going Retrograde and last week's Sun-Jupiter conjunction. They're marked on Pollyanna's long-range monthly chart below with blue bars for Sun-Jupiter conjunctions and red bars for Neptune Rx.

And they have a nasty habit of showing up at important turning points!

click for larger image

And we also have the Bradley Model suggesting a major trend change. I dealt with the Bradley Model at some length in the June 3 Eye of Ra (click here), or you can access via the Archives button on my web site. (http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/index.html)

I repeat the warning: It is the dates which are important, not the direction nor the amplititude of the swing.

The next trend change dates for this year don't occur until early September and early October.

click for larger image

Okay, now let's discuss The Spooky Stuff - because the astrological weather is full of change in the next few weeks.

Jupiter changes signs into Cancer this week ... Venus goes into Leo, where she throws off the dowdy house frock, gets a new "do" and piles on the bling ... and Mercury the brat mischief maker goes Retrograde.

We have discussed Mercury Rx many, many times. And here we go again. DOUBLE-check EVERYTHING you do for the next few weeks to make sure you are actually doing what you intended to do!

Before you hit the Buy or Sell button, pause ... consciously think ... double-check that you WANT to Buy or Sell. You have a stronger than usual chance of hitting the wrong button. But ... ONLY if you're being inattentive! This is not the world out to "get" you. It's you!

Now, it is true that data feeds go awry for a couple of days around the Rx and Direct dates; it is true that emails go missing; it is true that computers do the damndest things.

And it is also true ... more often than not ... that markets will start a trend around the Rx date which reverses course halfway through the Rx phase ... and then arrive at the Direct date a few weeks later with prices pretty much within a per cent or so of where the whole silly phase started.

So, Mercury is Rx from June 26 to July 20. Just pay attention!

Jupiter's shift into Cancer should accelerate sector rotation ... that is, money will flow out of stock sectors which have been popular over the past year or so and into different sectors. I discussed this in the May 13 edition.

It also puts the planet of expansion on track to make a Grand Trine, which is the most benevolent of all astrological aspects, with Neptune in Pisces and Saturn in Scorpio. Neptune rules Pisces, so is in a good mood; Jupiter is exalted in Cancer, so he is reasonably benign; and Saturn in Scorpio is associated historically with strong stock market rallies.

The aspect becomes exact in mid-July. We will need to watch the performance of stock indices very closely then, because a Grand Trine is a very powerful aspect likely to produce an important high or low.

Okay then ... let's recap. Most of the world stock indices behaved themselves ... launching into a strong, intermediate correction in late May. The Vacuous Troll kept dancing to the old Benny and the Feds soundtrack, but also finally faced reality. Apart from Polly, most indices have already hit - and in some cases re-tested - potential bounce levels.

We have a Murky Wrecks period fast approaching, which have a tendency to start a short-term trend change which reverses course halfway through. Helio Merc is going into Sadge and Geo Venus is going into Leo, both of which have a reasonably strong tendency to be good for a gold rally ... as the metal hits a long-range Fibo Rx level, with some intermediate-term positive divergence.


So, I think we have the potential for a good bounce in both gold and stocks getting underway this week. It's probably not going to be long-lasting for either of them ... and over the longer-term, warning sirens are starting to wind-up for stock markets.

Safe trading - RA

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013

The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013

• Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.

• An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-

• Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.

• Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.

These price charts are individually-tailored to each index and cover Wall Street, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, India, England, Germany and France.

You will not see these charts anywhere else on the Internet!

And much more...

It is NEVER too late in the year to have this monthly information!