Saturday, October 6, 2012

What's stopping Pollyanna from rising

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning October 8, 2012
 Gloom Boom & Doom guy, Marc Faber, says he has moved to cash in anticipation of a looming 20% plunge in Wall Street stocks.

When? Sometime in the next 6 months. That's a long time to spend nursing an ulcer and gnawing on fingernails.

So, we'll spend a little time in the first part of this weekend's edition having a close look at the planetary price barriers blocking Miss Pollyanna's efforts to break above the 1460s.

We're in the lunar phase period now between the 3rd Quarter Moon and the New Moon and early in the coming week the Sun will trine Jupiter and Venus will trine Pluto; all together, three astrological signatures with the potential positive energy to allow an upside breakout.

But first, the broad-based SP500 has to overcome strong Neptune resistance at the 1468 level. We'll have a look in a moment at why Miss Polly has been having trouble at that level ... and some hints from Friday's price action that she could continue to have trouble, in spite of the positive astro energy.

Faber believes the American markets - and many individual stocks within those markets - have peaked. He may be right and I confess I expected markets to top out much earlier in the year.

However, markets continue to defy Bearish expectations - which is why we continue to take it step-by-step, considering the upside potential, as well as the downside; and, most importantly, watching closely for any warning signs from croaking Canaries.

Now that we have some October price action to display, let's begin with another look at my long-range Old Gods chart for the SP500.
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We've anticipated that the dotted Neptune line at 1468 would provide strong resistance to further gains in Miss Pollyanna, because of the role it played, along with the Pluto line now priced at 1522, in the topping process of the 2007 Bull peak.

But, we've also been discussing the lack of negative divergence in certain technical oscillators, expecting that a breakout above 1468 could well be a "probable", rather than merely a "possible".

So, let's take a closer look at what's happening with the 500 in relation to the planetary portents.

It's obvious from the long-range Old Gods chart above that the index is having another go at challenging Neptune's power. And since that chart is a monthly, it gives us a pretty good idea of the likely price range for October - whether it's breakout or breakdown.

We all know from the Weekly Planets charts for various indices that meetings with the cyan Saturn lines are always a reliable stopper and frequently turn out to be a weekly High or Low.

On Friday, Mercury had a meeting with Saturn, forming a "price crossing point". What normally happens with these points is that if price breaks through and Closes above the exact level, it sets the stage for a rally boost.

On the other hand, if price rises into the exact level and then backs away, the odds increase that an important target peak has been hit - and the immediate path ahead is downwards.

Friday's price action suggests this is what has happened ... and the negativity is strengthened because the block shows up in both directions.

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The Chart above shows the index running into trouble and back off from a rising Mercury/Saturn price Crossing.

The chart below shows that the price crossing point is doubly significant because it also shows up as a falling Mercury/Saturn level.

And, we can see that the grey Neptune barrier marked on the long-range Old Gods chart is integrated into the configuration.

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So, it's going to take a big boost very early in the coming week to break that triple barrier. Otherwise, Miss Polly may have to vacate the stage for one of Chicken Little's appearances.

In normal circumstances, the omens from these three charts would convince me to Short the 500 big time ... for at least a short time.

Central Bank interference, the generally positive lunar phase, and the fact the Americans are on election countdown might throw a spanner in the works and distort what is normal.

However, there is a fairly obvious Stop Loss level.

The FTSE Weekly Planets chart is below and even though it's a weekly, shows what will probably turn out to be the Highs and Lows for October.

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And the chart below is the DAX Weekly Planets.
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Okay, I think there's enough information in those charts for Americans and Europeans to make a decision about what they do for October, so we'll change hemispheres.

Last weekend, I republished a very simple chart for Auntie, the ASX200, and said:

"I display this chart once again as an example of just how simple - and informative - a chart can be without having to rely on expensive software. It actually flies in the face of the omens from the NDX. The downtrend angle has been broken and the long-range Canary is suggesting further upside ..."

Well, it did fly in the face of the alarm bells going off in the NDX chart and not only met its target, but exceeded it.
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And the bad news for the Bears is ... the long-range Canary loves it, loves it, loves it! Despite the low level of last week's High, the oscillator is putting in its best performance since the 2009 Bear bottom. Of course, it might not actually end October looking that way!

The 4758 target seems both difficult and unlikely, in spite of the oscillator ... so let's look at some less-daunting targets.

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There is an obvious double-Fibonacci barrier not far north of the current price action. While the oscillator is not quite as gleeful on the weekly as it currently displays on the monthly, it's certainly strong enough to suggest those Fibonacci levels are likely to be challenged.

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And the Fibonacci targets are endorsed, too, by Auntie's Weekly Planets chart. I mentioned earlier the importance of the cyan Saturns on the Weekly Planets charts for various indices - and we can see they were in play last week on the ASX200. The more important key to Auntie's likely range for the month is the two Uranus levels, currently at 4560 and 4437.

Now, I really want to take a look at Shanghai, even though China has been on holiday, because there's a chance the main index there may be bottoming - and that might explain the optimism evident in the ASX200.
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We've already discussed the importance of Saturn lines. In astrological mythology and symbolism, Saturn sets boundaries. What is significant, well potentially significant, on the chart of the Shanghai index is the thick Saturn line. Over on the far left, we can see this capped prices until it was broken and the index launched into a massive blow-off.

Then, it became important again - acting as the bottom stop on the plunge which followed the blow-off. Now, it's reacting again to that same primary Saturn boundary.

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The chart above is a weekly, zooming-in on the price action from the Bear plunge to now. The main Old Gods players for Shanghai are Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. We have some mild positive divergence in the current state of the oscillator, suggesting the main Chinese index is going to make a solid attempt at regaining the territory above the primary Saturn line.

If it can do it, it opens the potential for a fast and significant rally. The current blockage is priced between 2092 and 2106. Breaking through the restriction, opens a probable target of 2406 before further major consolidation.

The Hang Seng is in a similar position.
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The MACD is not displaying a lot of internal oomph; but if price can get on top of the Saturn/Neptune barriers it does open up 24,000 as a likely target.

Singapore, the Straits Times Index, is below ... and it appears to have already started the move; though it's MACD signals are also giving signs of wanting to croak.
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Our final chart for this weekend is India's Nifty. The index spent a couple of weeks gathering strength at the 5690s level, listed as a target in the Eye a few weeks ago ... and now has a potential target of 6000 in sight, given the apparent strength of its MACD signal.
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My apologies for not returning to the Canadian indices this week; I'll try next week.

Okay, we've been through a fair bit of territory this weekend. We have a number of indices perking up and finally starting to put on a spurt - with some charts suggesting Wall Street won't be one of them without some form of Benzedrine boost to get Pollyanna above 1468.

However, I've tried to include as many charts as I can indicating the probable range that will be traded in various indices over the remainder of the month.

Safe trading - RA


Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012

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