World stock indices and the price of gold are hitting, or are very close to hitting, prices which have the potential to produce a bounceback.
However, the situation overall remains dangerous and complex as both technical conditions and the astrological weather deteriorate.
We have a lot to consider this weekend; most especially whether we are now in the early stages of a developing Bear market in stocks.
But we will begin by reviewing where we are in terms of the correction which started, for most indices, late in May. I indicated then that: "There's a strong chance stock markets have gone into correction mode likely to last for several weeks."
For the past few weekends, as we tracked the decline in European and Asian indices, I've also indicated: "At a glance, the correction on Wall Street still seems to be too shallow, in terms of both Price and Time, to be realistic - especially considering the rapid, steep declines in most other major indices."
And I said last weekend: "Jupiter energy takes centre stage this week, when the fires of optimism will be stoked again ... or the fear will be."
We got the fear mode, which finally produced a Wall Street decline which is much more realistic in terms of an intermediate correction.
It now may be nearing bounceback levels. I would prefer to see a low form in the SP500 in the price range from 1570 to 1540, since the decline still seems a little short of the mark.
However, some of the other world indices are starting to display positive divergence sufficient enough to produce at least a bounce.
But the astrological weather ahead in the next few weeks is full of turmoil ... and we have reached a major Bradley Model turn date. I will leave discussion of The Spooky Stuff until later in this edition.
Since it's the easiest to deal with, we'll begin with a quick look at gold. Long-range, it has hit an important Fibonacci Retracement level.
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From a planetary perspective, gold has lost the primary Pluto line at 1360 and a primary Sun line - with last week's drop taking price down to a secondary Pluto level. The potential good news is that not only has it now hit a long-range FiboRx price, but it has dipped into Pluto prices with a third instance of positive divergence in the oscillator, though it is mild divergence rather than strident.
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There is a reason I call the SP500 Pollyanna ... or The Vacuous Troll. However, reality finally dawned that Benign Ben isn't going to drop money from helicopters in QE4ever.
The index finally dropped out of the uptrend channel which has defined the rally since it launched late last year. The drop has taken it down into a potential Full Moon low, which is a statistical tendency. The only thing that concerns me is I'd have preferred to see it hit price levels from 1570 to 1540.
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Now I have been indicating since late May that I thought this was going to be an intermediate-length correction, lasting probably 5 to 8 weeks. There is a chance it is something much worse. However, there are no major warning signs on the monthly charts, so I'm still leaning towards the optimistic outcome ... which is that this is the last major correction before the final, the last, rally of this Bull run.
But ... two things. Firstly, the combined impact of Neptune going Retrograde and last week's Sun-Jupiter conjunction. They're marked on Pollyanna's long-range monthly chart below with blue bars for Sun-Jupiter conjunctions and red bars for Neptune Rx.
And they have a nasty habit of showing up at important turning points!
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I repeat the warning: It is the dates which are important, not the direction nor the amplititude of the swing.
The next trend change dates for this year don't occur until early September and early October.
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Jupiter changes signs into Cancer this week ... Venus goes into Leo, where she throws off the dowdy house frock, gets a new "do" and piles on the bling ... and Mercury the brat mischief maker goes Retrograde.
We have discussed Mercury Rx many, many times. And here we go again. DOUBLE-check EVERYTHING you do for the next few weeks to make sure you are actually doing what you intended to do!
Before you hit the Buy or Sell button, pause ... consciously think ... double-check that you WANT to Buy or Sell. You have a stronger than usual chance of hitting the wrong button. But ... ONLY if you're being inattentive! This is not the world out to "get" you. It's you!
Now, it is true that data feeds go awry for a couple of days around the Rx and Direct dates; it is true that emails go missing; it is true that computers do the damndest things.
And it is also true ... more often than not ... that markets will start a trend around the Rx date which reverses course halfway through the Rx phase ... and then arrive at the Direct date a few weeks later with prices pretty much within a per cent or so of where the whole silly phase started.
So, Mercury is Rx from June 26 to July 20. Just pay attention!
Jupiter's shift into Cancer should accelerate sector rotation ... that is, money will flow out of stock sectors which have been popular over the past year or so and into different sectors. I discussed this in the May 13 edition.
It also puts the planet of expansion on track to make a Grand Trine, which is the most benevolent of all astrological aspects, with Neptune in Pisces and Saturn in Scorpio. Neptune rules Pisces, so is in a good mood; Jupiter is exalted in Cancer, so he is reasonably benign; and Saturn in Scorpio is associated historically with strong stock market rallies.
The aspect becomes exact in mid-July. We will need to watch the performance of stock indices very closely then, because a Grand Trine is a very powerful aspect likely to produce an important high or low.
Okay then ... let's recap. Most of the world stock indices behaved themselves ... launching into a strong, intermediate correction in late May. The Vacuous Troll kept dancing to the old Benny and the Feds soundtrack, but also finally faced reality. Apart from Polly, most indices have already hit - and in some cases re-tested - potential bounce levels.
We have a Murky Wrecks period fast approaching, which have a tendency to start a short-term trend change which reverses course halfway through. Helio Merc is going into Sadge and Geo Venus is going into Leo, both of which have a reasonably strong tendency to be good for a gold rally ... as the metal hits a long-range Fibo Rx level, with some intermediate-term positive divergence.
So, I think we have the potential for a good bounce in both gold and stocks getting underway this week. It's probably not going to be long-lasting for either of them ... and over the longer-term, warning sirens are starting to wind-up for stock markets.
Safe trading - RA
Important reading: Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2013 , Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2013
The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2013Major trend change dates for the full year, plus a month-by-month breakdown of high-energy trading dates and critical reversal dates.
An index-by-index analysis of Moon Trading across major American, European, Asian and Australian stock indices-
Identifies the major indices where following the phases of the Moon can dramatically cut profits, or even result in large losses.
Old Gods & Gold ... a Eureka! discovery about exactly what drives gold prices during rallies and corrections and charts showing highly-reliable target levels to both the upside and downside.
