As goes January, so goes the year ...

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning February 3, 2014

Wall Street loves its pithy little bon mots and has a cliché for every occasion.

This one, about January providing a barometer for the year ahead, has a good chance of turning out to be true.

The real question is When and at What Price the big downturn will come.

As I indicated last weekend, the series of retrogrades involving Venus, Mercury and Mars is likely to cause confusion in the first few months of the year because everyone will be constantly changing direction.

So, Venus ... the money planet ... is now Direct again. Watch for changes in currency trades. I don't "do" Forex, so can't help anyone with those trades.

Later this week, the little mischief maker of the Old Gods, Mercury, goes on one of its regular retrogrades and the usual warnings apply; double-check everything you do BEFORE clicking the Buy or Sell buttons, expect data feeds to go awry and technical signals to fail, and be aware that any trend which starts around the Rx date often has a habit of reversing course halfway through the period (February 6 to 28 - New York timing).

The only other major astrological aspect still in effect is Jupiter's opposition to Pluto, which made the second of three hits last Friday.

We've chatted often about the Jupiter/Sagittarius effect, which is to exaggerate. Usually, it's the optimism; sometimes it's the fear. And we saw a lot of fear take centre stage over the past couple of weeks.

And we've also seen a ramping-up of the sort of social upheaval I talked about again in Forecast 2014, with the threat of civil wars and armed/aggressive rebellion now spreading out of the Arab zone into parts of Europe. With Mars due to go retrograde in the sign of Libra not long after Mercury goes direct again, it's all going to get a lot worse.

But, we're here to talk about the state of the stock markets. Let's begin with a daily Bi-BB of Pollyanna, the SP500. In The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon, I make a couple of points about how to use the Bi-BB charts.

One is that a breaking of the bands stalls the trend or provokes a countertrend; and the second is that tightening bands cause a sharp move and that the first move is usually in the wrong direction.

Now, last week's Polly trading is an excellent example of the first of those technical conditions in action ... and at least the first part of the second condition. That is ... the extreme tightening of the bands produced a sharp move ... which broke the downside outer band.

However, the breaking of the band then caused a stall in the (down)trend. Polly didn't go much of anywhere all week long. So, two of the significant "rules" have been met and the only one remaining is ... is the first move in the wrong direction?

It could take a few days to answer that. The fast MACD went into a swan dive after recording negative divergence and even though the state of the histogram is improving, this level of dive usually takes a while to unwind ... as we can see from the earlier instance I marked with a yellow oval.

And the drop stopped at an "obvious" level ... one of Pollyanna's long-range Neptune price lines. We can see this line put up some Resistance to the rally last October and then became important Support in early December. And here we are again.

What is different now, however, is VERY different. Big Bird has dropped off his perch and is squawking horribly. These are Polly's Weekly Planets lines, but with daily price bars. If she holds the line you can calculate the upside Resistance levels; if it fails, the 1750s will probably be the minimum downside target for the coming week.

Let's put the January drop into perspective, though. The Nasdaq tech index has been on a tearaway, finally getting back into the lower end of its infamous bubble top. The new price High has been endorsed by the long-range Big Bird, which also hit a new peak in terms of the recovery rally from the 2009 Bear bottom. I want to stress that part. No negative divergence present from 2009 to 2014.

But! The current Big Bird high is lower than its peak in 2007. This is not ... yet ... a panic scenario.

And it's ditto for the DAX, where Big Bird is in complete agreement that the record highs in the German index are legitimate.

But, unfortunately, not quite ditto for the FTSE which is in danger of triple-topping. And doing so with the first signs of negative divergence in the state of the oscillator, which peaked in May, 2013.

So, it may well be the case that the January barometer does foretell of tough times ahead for the stock markets in 2014 and it is possible it's already underway. But, we won't really know that with any real degree of certainty until we see the personality of the first major bounceback ... and with the lack of any significant divergence in Big Bird on the major indices, we can't rule out the potential for a new high in any of these indices.

I'll leave you with a Weekly Planets chart for the ASX200. Yes, I'm playing favorites. Auntie is a Neptune index and I'm a little surprised it hasn't hit the 5142 level yet. It's certainly possible she can bounce within the Saturn zone, where she's currently getting Support at the 5173 line. Personally, I'd prefer to see a bounce from Neptune ...

Safe trading - RA

(scroll down to view previous editions of The Eye of Ra)

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014

Retrogrades will cause confusion

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning January 27, 2014

Predicting the intermediate future of markets is likely to be challenging for the first few months of 2014.

Venus, Mercury and Mars have a series of Retrogrades which will have traders, policy makers and politicians constantly changing direction.

We can all go nuts trying to work out what's happening. Or simply follow The Idiot.

A few weeks ago, all of the "experts" were certain 2014 was set to be another bumper year for stock markets. In the past few days, they've started to become a lot more uncertain.

After Friday's ugly slump, some are now worried it's the start of The Big One. Ho hum. It is, of course, possible; just not probable.

Venus goes back into Direct motion again next Friday, on the same day Jupiter opposes Pluto. The following week, Mercury will go Retrograde. And when it goes Direct, Mars will (appear to) go backwards.

The probability is that there will be a series of sharp moves and reversals throughout the first few months of the year.

Traders will need to stay nimble and not get married to any particular notion of what the markets "should" be doing.

Last weekend we took a broad look at the potential for a big turnaround in gold this year, examining the technical condition of the XAU, the Philadelphia gold and silver index, and three of the world's biggest gold miners. Their condition has only improved since.

Those of you who already have Forecast 2014 will realise that the price of gold itself hit a key Pluto target during Friday's trading ... and will also know all the other price levels likely to be of major importance throughout the year.

And the Forecast also contains the important planetary price levels for most of the world's leading stock indices.

I stress again that we cannot yet be certain that gold has made its final price Low. As I said last weekend, what we have is "a bounce from the obvious" and that bounces from the "obvious" - in gold's case, an apparent double-bottom - are sometimes relatively short-lived.

It is also "obvious" from the weekly chart below, that gold has a lot of work to do yet before we can be sure the correction from the 2011 peak is finished and that the metal is launching into a new Bull phase.

Gold made its double-bottom low on December 31 ... a second price Low that arrived with very significant positive divergence in our Big Bird oscillator, indicating strong potential for an intermediate-term bounceback.

While price on Friday ran into Pluto price resistance, it seems still to have more room to move higher before it starts running into the technical barriers.

The technical conditions in the gold weekly chart are pretty much the reverse of the SP500's chart. The build-up of negative divergence in Pollyanna's Big Bird was a long one.

As price climbed a channel, Big Bird made its last decent peak way back in May, 2013. In short, it's a build-up of divergence that won't be undone by a few days of price drops. However ugly.

But just as gold has a lot of work to do to overcome its technical barriers to launch into a new Bull phase, Miss Polly has lots of support levels which have to fail before we can declare a Bear.

So, let's not get caught-up in the talkfest. It certainly appears as if stocks have been too overbought for too long and may be entering a correction which is long overdue.

And gold and gold stocks are bouncing strongly, having become much too oversold. Nevertheless, the attempts to manipulate gold continue and danger remains in becoming too Bullish too soon.

According to reports this weekend, the US Federal Reserve managed to repatriate only 5 tonnes of Germany's gold last year. This from the hundreds of tonnes the Bundesbank is supposed to have stored in New York and at Fort Knox ... and which the Germans demanded last year be shifted out of those facilities and back to Germany.

So far, everyone is remarkably silent about exactly why it'll take 7 years to give Germany back what it owns. The Bundesbank makes a few polite noises about "logistical" problems. *Gag*Cough*Splutter*Guffaw*

I don't wish to be uncharitable or provocative, but history is history. And the Germans have a certain talent for being able to organise the mass movement of ... things. I am, of course, talking about Mercedes and BMWs and Miele machines. What did you think I was talking about?!

Anyway, I think we can all agree that if the Germans really wanted to shift several hundred tonnes of anything, they'd be able to do it with their usual precision and efficiency.

Just how long the world will swallow this story about the Bundesbank being unable to organise a few trucks, planes and a ship or two remains to be seen.

And that, perhaps, is the biggest danger. Because if it actually gets proved that the US Federal Reserve stole and sold the gold reserves in Fort Knox and New York, believing they could manipulate paper markets to buy it back cheaper, we are going to see a world financial crisis unlike anything ever seen before.

And speaking of track records ... the US Federal Reserve has no history of theft, bubble creation and causing massive worldwide financial meltdowns. Gag*Cough*Splutter*Guffaw*

But, but ... none of this concerns us. We are mere minnows in a pool of predators. So, we do need to be aware that the boys with the biggest bank account would appear to have a need to get their hands on a LOT of physical gold at the cheapest price they can get it. And that means there are likely to be more sudden billion-dollar raids on the gold price.

And it also means they didn't spend this amount of money - $85 billion a month - driving up the stock markets month-after-month to unload all their overpriced crud onto the gullible in one bad Friday on Wall Street. It's most unlikely they've dumped everything they need to dump yet.

On another topic, I receive fairly regular requests from readers to "link" on social media sites, which then want me to join and create a profile. It's not something I have the time for, or any inclination to do.

Safe trading - RA

(scroll down to view previous editions of The Eye of Ra)

Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014
(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014

Astrological Investing - Site of The Week!

Astrological Investing has been featured as the Site of the Week at astrologywizard.com. Here is what astrologer Paul Wade said: "As I write it seems many don’t have the cash to invest anymore, so clearly those that do must be more careful than ever. Here’s a site established to explain how astrology helps investors reach the right decisions, with lots of information for the casual surfer and with more available after you complete their free registration."

So, okay...for those who do like to play the market, and have the cash - Just a reminder about the markets - When Venus changes directions there is a reversal in the market momentum 80% of the time, just as there was (if you look at the charts)when Venus turned Rx.

We are at the end of the Rx period, with Venus stationing direct today.

I am expecting a brief decline, followed by a rally up ever mindful that we are still within a Bear Market multi-month rally that started when Venus stationed Rx.

When Mercury changes directions there will be volatility at both of the stations, May 7, stationing retrograde - May 30 stationing direct.

Given the long term outlook of the planets for 2009, one could use any rally to take profits and acquire cash...still not trusting any rally and keeping close watch and/or use stop losses.

For more in depth information about the astrological outlook for the stock market read Randall Ashbourne's The World At Large, January 2009 where he states:

"World stock markets remain trapped within a Bear market which currently seems unlikely to finish or find a final “bottom” before 2010 at the earliest."

He gives us key dates to watch that likely will coincide with key reversals in stock markets in the next few months - June 6 & 26, July 8 to 15

Venus Direct

Venus Direct April 17,2009 3:24 p.m. EDT

Venus is now stationary and will hover at her station, 29 degrees of Pisces, until she turns direct April 17. Venus is exalted in Pisces and so she is quite comfortable and generally speaking making all of us feel attractive, confident of our abilities and actually nice to our friends and neighbors. It is a case of the world feeling like it is doing what it is supposed to do. Rescuing Captains, chasing pirates, letting leaders rant, and sharing the good news of Spring with the neighborhood. Venus in Pisces is very benevolent. Enjoy the moments.

Financial Markets and the Venus Station at 29 Pisces
In the financial markets a Venus station is the indicator of a reversal. Usually it takes about a week before the impact is noticed in the averages. If we look at the Dow Industrials, 29 Pisces falls in the ninth and the emphasis is on foreign markets and shipping. Folks abroad just can’t help looking at the Blue Chips and saying, it looks like they are behaving and some are actually earning money. Traders are looking at foreign stocks and saying there are some great opportunities in the emerging markets. Traders looking at transportation Blue Chips are saying, we could actually see some mergers. Maybe the shippers will find some economies by cooperating. Maybe if they work together they could eradicate pirates and bring down their insurance premiums.
? Other Markets ?
Techie folks at the NASDAQ are saying wait a minute, what about security issues? You all are looking at the world through rose colored Pisces glasses. The traders in London agree and say there is money in insurance. Remember that is how our exchange started. These traders start looking at the insurance companies that insist on high tech surveillance and say look we can make some money here. The folks at the Tokyo exchange agree.

Let me explain the charts I’m looking at in The Textbooks for Financial Astrology I have charts for the various exchanges. Venus will be at 29 degrees of Pisces for two weeks. In the Dow Industrials chart this degree is in the 9th house. In the charts for the FTSE and the Tokyo exchanges 29 degrees Pisces is the 2nd. Think about shipping and making money and who is going to make it. A short term trade is possible, if you are alert and watching April 21st when Mars and Venus make a conjunction. A long term investment would need a few passes of Venus over Pisces. However the return would possibly out pace government bonds.

This is a fun way to look at the overall markets. It only takes a few minutes to check the charts of the various exchanges. You are looking at the degrees of a planet’s station. Saturn will be next at 14 degrees Virgo.

OK Spring is in the air. Say nice things to your friends and neighbors. Take a moment to stop a smell the flowers.
--
Kaye Shinker
www.astrologicalinvesting.com