Sunday, October 19, 2014

Fleshing out the 2 main scenarios

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning October 20, 2014 


 Stock markets began bouncing late last week, but it is likely only a relief rally which will be relatively short-lived.

We have a couple of key astrological aspects taking place during the coming week.

The most powerful of these is the solar eclipse New Moon due to occur on Thursday evening in Euro-America and early Friday morning in Asia.

It will take place in Scorpio just after both the Sun and Venus enter the sign.

It's the presence of Venus which will make this eclipse particularly powerful. Scorpio rules debt, taxes and most especially really BIG money. Venus rules material wealth and, according to traditional astrology, tends not to act benignly when travelling through Scorpio.

The other significant aspect is that next weekend Mercury will finish its current retrograde phase.

I indicated last weekend that Mercury Rx can manifest as a head fake. However, I also outlined the two main scenarios now facing markets ... either the Bull is dead and we are now in a new, long-running Bear ... or, this is a major correction likely to run for weeks or months before this post 2009 Bull phase puts on another major rally leg.

So, we'll spend a little time this weekend fleshing out those two main scenarios. I said last weekend that under the major correction scenario, the target for the decline could be as high as $1878 or as low as $1776 on the Pollyanna index, Wall Street's SP500.

I should have said "this" decline, meaning the first leg of of a three-legged decline. It can morph into a five-legged triangle pattern, but that is a level of Elliott Wave complexity which tends to be more confusing than helpful.

In any case, I showed you the long-range planetary price targets which should prove to be important throughout the correction and here's the update.

We now need to see exactly what sort of completed bounce we get before we can even think about predicting targets for the next major leg down.

What we do know is that this is now the second biggest correction on Pollyanna since this Bull market launched itself in 2009.

A lot of commentators are all Awoe! Alas! because the index has broken down below its long-term trendline. Well, yes and no at this stage. Personally, I think log-scale charts tend to be more accurate for an "eyeball" look at the long-range ... and on that chart, Polly is trying to cling on.

The log-scale chart shows how the price has been constrained within a rising wedge ... the thin, red topside trendline and the thick, blue support trendline.

I don't think there's any question that blue trendline is going to be broken decisively. The MACD signal line has gone negative and the peaks in the histograms have gone from mountains to molehills over a long period while the price went higher. Negative divergence.

But, even when the trendline is finally broken, it doesn't necessarily stop the Bulls from launching a rally to do what's called a "kiss back" of the underside of the line before it all then starts really crashing.

Turning now to my home market, Australia. I said last weekend: "Regular readers will know that Auntie is a strongly Neptunian index over the long term, even as she responds to Saturn lines during weekly moves.
 

The next potential Neptune "rescue" level is very nearby, priced around $5150. Note that the index topped out at the $5650 level, so $5150-ish is both a legitimate target and potentially quite strong as a Support level."

And the old bat did exactly as expected ...

The break of the 5150 Neptune level was very short-lived. I'll show you on my daily All Planets chart for the ASX200 below. Now, do NOT try to print this chart, dear reader. Your printer will run out of black ink. Right-click the chart and save it as an image ... and then you'll have a ready-reference guide to help you through the bounce.

As you can see, Auntie topped out with some dithering around the Neptune line in the 5600s and then followed Sun and Venus lines down into the pile-up of coloured spaghetti near the lower 5150s Neptune.

But there were were only intraday breaks below Neptune on Monday and Tuesday. Even Monday managed a close above the line, setting us up for what I'd indicated was a potentially strong Support level.

For a bounce, dear reader, but probably not a complete change in trend.

And finally for this weekend, a quick look at gold and the Sun-Pluto chart most of you will be familiar with.
Earlier in the year, greenback gold found Support at the 1248 Pluto line ... which is now Resistance. However, on the bright side, notice the performance of the Big Bird oscillator.

While the price plunged lower, Big Bird has been steadily making higher troughs. It's a build-up of positive divergence which should have enough power to drive gold prices higher over the next few weeks.

Now I still haven't created a 4Q Archives page ... so you can access the previous two October editions of the Eye from the buttons below.  In the meantime, if you missed the previous two October editions, or want to re-read them, you can access them from the website http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/eyeofra.html or scroll down in this web site's blog.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014


Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.


Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014  

Sunday, October 12, 2014

The 2 main scenarios and a head fake

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning October 13, 2014 

For the past few weeks we've been discussing the turmoil and volatility likely to be on display during this period.

I warned that the Grand Trine between Mars, Jupiter and Uranus in Fire signs would break boundaries. That is the true nature of a trine.

We also talked about how the symbolism of the Fire trine would be further exacerbated by the Sun and Venus rocking the Libran scales.

And how last week's lunar eclipse Full Moon had the power to bring it all to a spectacular climax.

Mercury is Retrograde for most of October, so there is a chance it's all a head fake. However, we still have the solar ecipse New Moon to come ... on the 23rd.

Western-allied markets are in turmoil. Not so much so for a lot of the Asian indices.

We now need to put aside The Spooky Stuff and look at what has happened from a more technical point of view.

And there are only two main scenarios. We are either in a secondary correction before another rally produces a final High to the Bull run sometime next year. Or, we are already in a new Bear.

The good news is that the extreme nature of the cosmic energy explosion should now begin to subside ... at least temporarily. The bad news is that we are probably in a correction due to run for weeks, possibly months.

In Elliott Wave terms, it would be a major Wave 4. Elliott theorised that stock markets run in 5 waves, where Waves 1, 3 and 5 are major rallies and Waves 2 and 4 are rather severe downturns within the overall structure.

So, let's begin this weekend with a look at what we might expect as reasonable and "normal" if that scenario is in play. The chart below is a monthly of the SP500, using Bi-BBs (the use of which is outlined in The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon) and an Andrew's Pitchfork.

The current correction has so far run $113 ... so it is roughly on a par with three earlier corrections during this Bull phase. They were $118, $155 and $112.

The big correction, which EW acolytes believe was a Wave 2 downturn, ran for 6 months from start to finish and sliced $295 off the price of the index.

So, if we are now in Wave 4, this downturn will not be short-lived and there is more downside still to come. Normalcy dictates there should be a relationship with Wave 2, either in Time or Price, but not necessarily both.

Elliott Wavers use a rule-of-thumb that a major Wave 4 tends to decline into the same price territory as the previous Wave 4 of a lower level. Yes, I know ... it can be very difficult to get your head around if you haven't spent a lot of time trying to understand the theory.

So, let me try to cut out the gobbledegook for you. It means, on our planetary prices chart below, that the target for the decline could be as high as $1878 ... or as low as $1776.


Now remember, that's the relatively optimistic scenario ... that this is just a significant downturn in a Bull run which still has another major rally to run.

The second scenario is that this is a screaming klaxon warning the Bull is dead and the Bear is back. Even if that's the case, there will be sharp and swift bouncebacks in the price as the central banks, the hedge funds, the fund managers try desperately to drive prices higher ... even if it's only to unload their toxic holdings onto poor mug punters who buy the media line that it's "a great time to buy".

Caveat emptor!

Now to my home market, the ASX200 and its routinely reliable Weekly Planets chart. Regular readers will know that Auntie is a strongly Neptunian index over the long term, even as she responds to Saturn lines during weekly moves.

The next potential Neptune "rescue" level is very nearby, priced around $5150. Note that the index topped out at the $5650 level, so $5150-ish is both a legitimate target and potentially quite strong as a Support level.

The Big Bird oscillator has gone into a death dive on the weekly. Poor little thing seems to be buried in the dirt on the mineshaft floor. We'll get no sustained bounce in Auntie's price levels until he manages to pop his head back above the lowest red line in the panel.


And that's it for this weekend. Long-range charts and other stuff for the European indices have been published in previous weeks and if you didn't do a cut-and-paste of them, you can have a wander through the Archives.

Since we're in the final quarter for the year, I still have to do some housekeeping to create the 4Q Archives page. In the meantime, if you missed last weekend, or want to re-read it, you can access it from the website http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/eyeofra.html or scroll down in this blog.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014


Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.


Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014  








Saturday, October 4, 2014

Earth Wind & Fire rock markets

 Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning October 6, 2014 
Like all good fireworks spectaculars, the cosmic energy explosion should hit a stunning climax this coming week.

The trigger is likely to be the lunar eclipse Full Moon in Aries happening on Wednesday.

It's conjunct Uranus, currently being trined by Mars in Sagittarius and Jupiter in Leo. That's already a lot of Fire sign energy and it's about to get a boost from the lunar eclipse Full Moon.

But wait ... there's more! The Sun and Venus are in Libra, squaring Pluto and opposing Uranus ... that long-running Uranus/Pluto square which we've discussed many times as the rebel forces going to war with the plutocrats determined to maintain control at any cost.

Libra is Cardinal Air ... it's the Wind, now fanning all that Fire energy into an global wildfire. Pluto is in Capricorn, the Cardinal Earth sign. "I have the power and no-one will take it from me!"

And on top of all that, Mercury has just gone Retrograde and will stay that way for most of October. Nothing anyone says should be believed or trusted ... because what they think they know is likely to be only part of the story.

As an astrology buff, it is fascinating watching all this unfold ... just in the past week alone. Student protestors take to the streets of Hong Kong, shutting down the government quarter. They're well-behaved, sitting down to do their homework when not manning the barricades, and putting up signs apologising for the inconvenience they're causing.

It is a beautiful mix of Uranus in Aries demanding social change, balanced by the good manners of the Sun and Venus in sociable Libra.

Of course, the plutocrats in control have no intention of giving up any of their power. Along come the triad gangs to provoke a bit of violence and instill some fear into the demonstrators. Pluto, in his natural underhanded scheming guise, working secretly to maintain the status quo that Capricorn is always obsessed with preserving.

But, there's an even bigger picture to all of this. Who stirred up the students? Do we think it just might have been those same secretive agents who stirred up trouble in Kiev? Is it coincidence that both Russia and China find themselves under "popular" protest right at the time they're making long-range smoochies with each other to thwart the political/economic power of the nation which considers itself the world's top cop?

Meanwhile, the top cop has put together a posse of sheriffs and deputies to unleash "firepower" ... Fire. Power. ... on the nutbags running around the desert displaying the very worst symbolism of Uranus in Aries, a combination of Fixed Air, where nothing new and useful enters the brain, and Cardinal Fire, which is armed aggression.

Astrology also tells us how this is all going to end, by the way.

But, but ... we did expect all these cosmic games to have a volatile impact on stock markets over these few weeks and a couple of weekends ago I published a series of charts for the exact price targets to watch on various world indices.

So, enough with the mystical mumbojumbo for the moment and let's have a little look.

First up is the SP500 which slipped out of Pollyanna mode into Chicken Little mode ... and made it down to the first Trine Target.

Toronto, too!

London's FTSE crashed through the previous week's boundary and broke another two before bouncing.

We discussed the FTSE's technical condition a few weeks back and noted a horizontal price consolidation happening with a weakening Big Bird oscillator. Not looking good for new Highs.

Pollyanna's primary planet prices are still in play ...

And the ASX200 continues to play with its Weekly Planet prices ...

Odd, non? Nevermind. The Old Gods have been around for a long time and humans have been studying them for thousands of years. See a sabre-tooth, run away, sit around staring at the night sky. Anyway, this Uranus-Pluto square thing we've been waffling on about for the past few years still has longer to run. The last "hit" doesn't occur until next year and, even then, the whole period ... in terms of "history" ... is usually only the start of a large-scale socio-economic upheaval.

Right now, we can't be certain who will "win". But, we do know who will NOT win. And all of you readers living between the Rio Grande and the Lakes might want to stop reading right now.

The fast-greying current temporary resident of that antebellum mansion at 1600 is destined to become one of the last emperors. This conflagration we're seeing unfold is the beginning of The End Times.

Like all empires, it doesn't want to die. But, the simple fact of astrological life is that Progressed Mars in the USA's birth chart turned Retrograde in 2006.

Symbolically, the USA's personal God of War no longer supports its outward ambitions. When it ends, we don't really know. Certainly, it will drag on for as long as Pluto remains in Capricorn.

How it ends is easier to see. It ends with a desperate last helicopter fleeing the roof of the US Embassy as opposition tanks crash through the gates ... it ends with Marines pushing helicopters and fighter jets overboard from the decks of the carriers as the ships turn back to the safety of the homeland.

And it's not that far away. And this time, it's global.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014


Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.


Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014  



  Purchase Forecast 2014 and receive a special report on GOLD for 2014
 

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Desperately seeking harmony

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning September 29  2014 
 The Sun has changed signs to Libra and early this coming week he'll be joined by the sign's ruling Queen, Venus.

Libra is the sign of balance, harmony, diplomacy and fairness. Yeah. That's what the Librans love to tell you. They're good at public relations ... in so many ways.

The glyph for Libra is a set of scales. And they're a bit like a broken clock that's right twice a day.

Because, dear reader, we all know scales are in balance only when they're empty! So, Life in the Libran lane is a constant back-and-forth as it seeks balance, equality and harmony ... actually only achieving it for short periods of time until the next little breeze upsets the delicate balancing act.

It's a see-saw, tilting first this way ... then that way. What does it mean for stock markets ... and money, since Venus also has specific rulership of money?

It means anything which swung too far that way is about to start swinging back the other way! Awww ... yuh thought it was gonna be nice?

Nuh. Afraid not. It's just going to exacerbate the volatility we've been discussing for the past few weekends.

We've now had the first hit of the Fire trine ... Jupiter in Leo trined to Uranus in Aries. And in many markets, the "obstacles" collapsed.

The ASX200 and the FTSE are a couple of examples. Here's the FTSE update from last week. The chart has "lost" the marked prices, but you can look them up in last weekend's edition, via the Archives.


London just collapsed through the 6734 and 6703 markers from last week ... but did find at least temporary support at the listed 6615 price, making a Friday low at 6615.10. The ASX200 collapsed down through the 5415 and 5385 markers, but stopped dropping a few dollars short of the marked 5294 level, with a weekly low of 5309.80.

Germany and Amsterdam declined into close hits of the Jupiter/Uranus price crossing and held. Here's the DAX chart updated.

And it was a ditto for greenback gold, which made a spike down to a rising Mars price and closed the week on top of FatBoy and the Frootloop.

Now look, I'm bored with waffling on about Old Gods and the current aspects. We discussed it at length over the past couple of weekends. Just remember the Mars trines to Uranus and Jupiter have yet to become exact, so we're still in the period when the boundaries are likely to fail.

Let's have a look at what Pollyanna's see-saw looks like. The SP500 is still roughly in the middle of the Bullish price channel it has been riding since around this time in 2011. The Big Bird oscillator is tilting the other way, but is still holding above the Bullish +100 level.

Daily price bars continue to range within the Nodal bounaries at $1960 and $2000. Friday's bounce took the price back in contact with a rising, light green Sun line and a falling, dark green Venus line.

Blah, blah, blah. Time for a bit of favoritism and I'll deal now with my home market. Firstly, the danger ...

Auntie, the ASX200, has fallen off its uptrend line. We still have two days of trading to finish before this bar cements itself, but it's not looking good. The Canaries have been stacked in negative mode for months and the last price peak came in with a significantly lower peak in the Big Bird (the blue line oscillator).

Red Bird (medium-term) and Green Bird (fast) have fallen off their perch ... badly. We have clear warning signs the Australian stock market may be rolling over from vaguely Bullish to distinctly Bearish.

Auntie's Weekly Planets chart is below and the weekly Big Bird has gone into a death dive. Despite the fact we're now in the statistically negative period between New Moon and Full Moon, it is possible that the Sun/Venus entry into Libra may try to swing the scales back in the other direction.

However, at this stage, it's looking more likely to be a corrective bounce, rather than a resumption of the Bull.

Overall, as with the other indices, we are in the hands of the three fiery Old Gods making a Grand Trine with each other and need to watch carefully and stay nimble for the next couple of weeks.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014


Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.


Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014  


  Purchase Forecast 2014 and receive a special report on GOLD