Sunday, January 10, 2016

Danger ... the Bear may be underway

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning January 10, 2016


Last weekend I warned that the alarm bells are screaming very loudly.  (scroll down to read last weeks post,. Beware of the Bear.)

After a week of deep-diving stock markets worldwide, I will review below where we may now be in long-range Elliott Wave terms.

It is possible, Stocks would need to begin bouncing strongly and virtually immediately for that to be true.

The alternative is that virtually all major worldwide stock indices made a long-term Bull market top last year and we are already in the grip of a Bear market which could last at least another year and, if follows the "norm", will wipe out perhaps as much as 50% of your net worth. And possibly more in the Wall Street markets.

The onset of the new Bear is not yet set in concrete. However, it is only a few per cent away and as I said last weekend, it was distinctly possible even before last week's dives, that some markets, such as Australia, are already in its grip. because of major astrological  events last week, that the drop is a head fake.

We will begin this report with an updated look at the broad Elliott Wave roadmap, where Bull markets rise in 5 waves. In Forecast 2015, (still available to download) , I had drawn the red arrow on the left indicating where we were at the start of 2015.

It is possible ... but only just ... that Wall Street still has two more rallies before the current Bull is dead. If that is so, those indices are close to where I have drawn the black arrow.

However, the very real danger is that the top is in and a large-scale meltdown is already underway. If that is the case, we may already be within the early stages of a crash ... the second part of a crash which has been underway for months.

As a rough guide, my best guesstimate would place Wall Street about where the red triangle is positioned. In short, we ALL need to watch the next rally very carefully and be prepared to: Get the Hell Outa Dodge!!


We'll look this weekend at the long-range charts for the FTSE and the DAX. England has slumped back into the price zone marked by the two thin, black horizontal lines.

Its position within that zone needs to be monitored VERY closely, because the Big Bird oscillator certainly looks to be in a death dive.

If you look at what happened during the 2007-2009 Bear market on the left of the chart you have a graphic illustration of what I mean when I say we may already be in the early stages of a crash.

The monthly Idiot is now firmly in Sell mode on Germany's DAX. The blue-line Big Bird oscillator is in deep trouble and so, too, is the red-line Medium Bird, which is clearly warning that more trouble is looming. The green-line Fast Bird is showing some positive divergence, though this will not be settled until the end of the month.

Still, it is giving preliminary notification of a potential bounceback nearby.

Please note in the chart above that the Fast and Medium Bird oscillators are looking suspiciously similar to their behaviour just before the 2008 crash.

Below is the DAX's long-range planetary price chart ... and that's one big hole its price is starting to drop into.

More than at any time in the past few years ...

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2016





The Idiot and the Moon, eBook, available for purchase

Saturday, January 2, 2016

2016 ... beware of the Bear


Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning January 3, 2016
Best wishes to everyone for a happy and prosperous 2016, though if you're counting on stocks to provide either happiness or prosperity, you'll need to be very nimble.
2015 has ended with very few worldwide stock indices holding onto the gains they made early in the year.v

Many commentators, even the optimistic ones, expect more trouble and few gains to be made in the coming 12 months.

From a contrarian point of view, there are ... perhaps ... too many people calling an end to the Bull run and a return of the Bear; the market rarely does what the majority expect and forecast.

Still, even the best Elliott Wave analysts now believe the end of this very long-running Bull market (at least for the American indices) is only a rally or two away from starting.

It is distinctly possible that some stock markets are already in its grip. Over the next week, I will try to bring you up to date on all the major markets ... starting today with Wall Street's SP500 and Australia's ASX200.

My apologies for my prolonged absence during the past few months. I am still ill and no longer have the energy to write regular columns.

Bear markets tend to be defined in line with the percentage crash from their Highs. The Australian stock market has been one of the world's real laggards in terms of its Bull run since the last Bear terminated in 2009.

The ASX200 made a double top at $5996 last March and April. In the next 4 months, it crashed a tad more than 17.5% from the High and has made four "tests" of that crash level, with December finally making a bounce from the obvious ... contact with a rising trendline.


The Idiot remains on a monthly Sell signal. Big Bird, the 50 CCI oscillator marked with a blue line in the lower panel, has plunged below the +100 level. There remains some hope for a rally in the first part of 2016; we have a bounce from the long-range trendline, Big Bird appears to have made a Zero Line Rejection (ie: it has bounced higher from the red, dotted zero line which tends to indicate a reliable bounce) and Fast Bird, the green line, has spiked above Medium Bird (the red).

Now let's take a look at the Pollyanna index, the SP500, using the alternative Bi-BB method recommended in The Idiot & The Moon. The August mini-crash took the index down 12.5% from its High. The fast MACD remains in clear Sell mode.

Nor is Pollyanna's Big Bird singing a happy song. In the chart below, take special note of what happened to this index when that blue oscillator line plunged below the red +100 line after the two previous Bull peaks. The alarm bells are screaming. Very loudly.

Thankfully, we have some tools which can be used to help us trade these volatile markets. The ASX200, for example, has been making regular stops and reversals at two sets of Fibonacci Retracement levels ... the blue ones from the 2007 peak to 2009 low, the red ones from the strong Bull market leading into that 2007 High.


These are long-range markers and should be used to inform any short or medium term trades you may be considering. In other words, if your daily and weekly charts are starting to show oscillator or momentum weakness as the price rises into any of these Fibonacci Rx targets you need to be very careful about staying Long ... and also need to move your Loss Stops much closer to the current price action at the time.

And we also have my long-range planetary price charts which can be used effectively for price targets ... up or down. The ASX 200 is quite simple. You know from past columns and the book that it is an index with a very strong relationship to Neptune.

Those price lines are marked with both grey and orange lines on the chart below and while there are often overshoots, the reliability of using Neptune prices as targets for moves in both directions, I think is too profitable, and too regular, to be ignored. Again, use these long-range targets to inform your decisions when daily and weekly charts are showing positive or negative divergence and the strong chance of a looming trend change.



And the same is true of the SP500.


In Forecast 2015, I published a basic Elliott Wave diagram, where a Bull run is made up of 5 large waves, with (1), (3) and (5) being the major rally phases and (2) and (4) being the downtrend waves. I marked last year with a red arrow, indicating we were nearing the end of 5 intermediate waves within a long-range 3 rally and that would normally be followed by a major wave 4 correction.

That appears to have happened fairly accurately. If it remains so, we start 2016 at about where I have placed the black arrow. In short, the good times are running out of room and time.

Do NOT go to sleep at the wheel any time during 2016.



Safe trading - RA
Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2016




The Idiot and the Moon, eBook, available for purchase

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Aussie market nearing a potential bounce

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning August 17, 2015 
The month of August is showing its habit of being a wild month for stock trading.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrials have been in downtrend mode since May, but the Pollyanna index has been bouncing around in a trading range for all of 2015.

Astrologically, we have a couple of major events. This weekend has Venus, the ruler of money and material wealth, in the middle of its current Retrograde phase.

And the head honcho of the Old Gods, Jupiter, has now changed signs ... moving from extroverted Leo into the far more discreet and discerning symbolism of Virgo. Jupie loves the Fire signs, especially Leo, which is associated with gambling and speculative profits.

The symbolism of Virgo is much more picky. It always want to see the evidence on the books ... books attended by accountants and subject to nit-picking auditors.

We should see an accelerated shift in support for some sectors and a withdrawal from others. Since Virgo rules health stocks, it might be worth studying those charts more closely than usual.

I'm going to concentrate in this edition on the position of the Australian stock market ... with a quick look at the SP500 and the DAX. In the last edition on July 13, I published the following chart and warned the ASX 200 was heading into a major hurdle.

It was a major set of downtrending inner planet lines ... Sun, Mercury, Venus and Mars ... which had a strong track record of sending the index into a dive.

This was the chart:
I said in that edition: "The trouble will come if the index rises into around $5700 by the end of the month."

And this is what happened. On August 4, two trading days after the end of the month, the ASX 200 hit a momentary spike high of 5727 ... and then its wings fell off.
Which brings us to the potential good news. On the chart above, I've now included a set of rising primary planet lines. As we did last time, take a look over on the left of the chart.

The ASX flopped down until it made contact with a rising (pink) Mercury line ... and a new one of those is now very close to the current price action. There's no certainty the rising Mercury will be strong enough to change the downtrend back into full-on rally mode, but we can use some other techniques to get a sense of where the drop will stop.

Firstly, let's take a look at a weekly Bi-BB chart. The use of Bi-BB charts is outlined in The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon, and is one of the two most strongly-recommended techniques for trading safely.

The first thing to take note of is the distinctly higher trough developing in the histograms of the fast MACD oscillator ... positive divergence. The second is the projection being made by the Fibonacci extension tool.

A corrective downtrend tends to make what Elliott Wave analysts describe as an ABC pattern, where A is the first wave down, the B is a bounce, and the final downleg is the C wave. We appear to be well into the C wave.
 It is not at all unusual for the C wave to be some level of Fibonacci projection of the A wave. The index ended last week with a touch of the 618 extension of wave A. Often A and C are close to the same length and if that holds true this time, the ASX is headed to the 5100s before either a major uptrend, or even a resumption of the overall Bull trend, starts.

We have a couple of alternative price targets to watch using Auntie's Weekly Planets chart, which most of you are now thoroughly familiar with.
Our Big Bird oscillator is in a dive, strongly suggesting there is more downside to come before a reliable and safe bounce can take hold.

Traders should be very cautious if any bounce in the next week or two cannot close decisively above those two blue Saturn lines which have just failed to hold the price lows. The price levels around 5200 and 5100 should also be monitored for bounce potential should the decline continue.

Turning now to the SP500. I went into its position at some length in the July 13 edition and not much has changed, so you can have a look at that report in the Archives if you need a refresher on the price targets to watch.

We are on the verge of getting a preliminary sell signal using the monthly Idiot chart. Pollyanna is still trying desperately to hold the upper tier line on the monthly Bi-BB chart, but both the fast MACD signal line and histograms have gone negative, so traders do need to be really cautious opening new Long positions on the 500.
Germany's DAX continues to be Europe's outperformer, but it is also into a multi-month correction. The chart below is its long-range planet price chart.

It's playing inside a Pluto/Neptune price zone ... and it has a history of doing so. It occurred during the 2007 Bull peak and the 2009 Bear bottom.
There is much talk about the woes of the Australian market being heavily under the influence of how China is going. It's an easy explanation for the talking heads, who seem to overlook the fact that Australia didn't soar with the eagles when Shanghai went into a major Moon shot this year.

I'd rather trust the planets! And the Idiots. Long story short ... if Auntie goes into bounce mode shortly, hitching a ride on the rising primary planet lines, so too will the other Western indices.

Safe trading - RA
Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2015


Read Randall Ashbourne's FREE report
THE IDIOT AND THE MOON FORECAST 2015
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, is the author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon,  Ashbourne's Galactic Trader planetary charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.

The Idiot and the Moon, eBook, available for purchase

Sunday, July 12, 2015

High energy impact zone starts now

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning July 13, 2015 
We are now entering one of the astrological high-impact zones of the year.
In Forecast 2015, published in January as a free download, available in the Archives and in the Astrological Investing's shop, I outlined this period from mid-July to early-August with a heavy red border and indicated it was one of three periods likely to be significant for stock prices.

It has already been triggered by the passage of the Sun, but is about to get potentially even nastier.

Mars will oppose Pluto and square Uranus. Mars is symbolic of drive and energy, Pluto rules big power, big money and taxes, and Uranus is representative of "the little guy" demanding a fair go and radical reform.

We've discussed these many times in the past few years because of the long-running square aspect between Uranus and Pluto.

It'll start to get even more intense this week when Venus squares Saturn, an aspect the big guy, Jupiter, will repeat in early August.

And Venus, the ruler of money, material values and diplomatic relations, will soon go retrograde.

Let's not worry ourselves too much about trying to predict the outcome of the astrological transits and, instead, take a look at where we are, primarily with Wall Street's SP500.

In March, I warned that the 500 was about to start running into a series of primary, downtrending planet lines likely to heavily stall the rally.

Incidentally, the same thing will happen to the Australian stock market in the next couple of weeks, but I'll deal with that later in this edition. In the June edition, I indicated traders had to keep a close eye on a primary Pluto level of $2084 for the Pollyanna index (SP500).

It lost the support of that line and is now on its third attempt to retest it from the downside. Strong recovery, especially on a weekly basis, could see Wall Street launch into a rally likely to take it to $2180 or higher. A failure to do so will see prices drop back down under the influence of the falling primary planet lines. 
Remember that we are now in the weakest portion of the stock market year and the "sell in May" theory may be taking effect, with a decline all the way to October.

The chart below shows Pollyanna's long-range planetary price lines and a continued decline could see it drop a lot further yet.
Forecast 2015 also listed the major Bradley Model turn dates for the year ... and this is what has been happening, so far. I always warn you it is the dates which are important, not the direction nor the amplitude of the trend change.

April 3 was two days off a low; May 22 was one day off the all-time closing high; June 8 was one day off a low. The next major turn date doesn't arrive until early October, though there are two minor dates in the next couple of weeks during this high-energy astrological zone.
Now, let's take a technical look at how Pollyanna is holding up. Below is the long-range monthly Bi-BB chart, using a fast MACD as the oscillator and showing a trend pitchfork.

For the past few years, the 500's prices have travelled very strongly within the upper tier of the monthly Bi-BBs. This very useful technique is outlined in The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon.

As well as that, Polly has been trying valiantly to ride along the top edge of the major, blue tyne of the pitchfork. We are starting to see signs of deterioration in the strength of that advance ... and with negative divergence in both the MACD signal lines and histograms.
The deterioration is also evident in a weekly chart, where the pitchfork's tynes are anchored at the first major correction after the Bear bottomed in 2009. The angle of the uptrend continues to hold, but price is finding it increasingly difficult to sustain ... and the Big Bird oscillator doesn't seem convinced that the current correction has completed.

In short, we all need to be very careful in these few weeks into early August.
That might be particularly true for the Australian market. It is now facing the same problem which has thwarted the Wall Street rallies in recent months ... a heavy set of downtrending inner planet lines almost immediately ahead.

If you take a quick eyeball at the left-hand side of the chart, you get an idea of what contact with these once-a-year downtrend lines can do to the index!
The trouble will come if the index rises into around $5700 by the end of the month. During all the volatility of the past couple of months, the ASX 200 has been routinely playing with blue Saturn price lines on its Weekly Planets chart.

The Big Bird oscillator isn't hopeful, at this stage ... and you can see the resistance around the $5700 level is also emphasised on this chart. In any case, these price targets have been working exceptionally well for weeks now ... for initiating Longs or Shorts!
Safe trading - RA
Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2015


Read Randall Ashbourne's FREE report
THE IDIOT AND THE MOON FORECAST 2015
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, is the author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon,  Ashbourne's Galactic Trader planetary charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.

The Idiot and the Moon, eBook, available for purchase