Sunday, April 10, 2016

Will Mars hit the brakes on stock rally?

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning April 10, 2016 
Stock trading is likely to become a lot more volatile in the next few weeks

In the past two editions, I outlined the price targets and potential time turns for what seemed likely to be no more than a significant dead cat bounce within a new, long-term Bear market.

Now that the probable targets have been hit, I wish to talk, just a little, about The Spooky Stuff.

Mars, the planet of drive and energy, goes retrograde next weekend until late in June. Mercury, which deals with thinking and communicating, goes retrograde on April 28 for about a month.

Long-term readers know that any trend which starts within a day of two of Mercury going Rx is likely to reverse course again about 1.5 to 2 weeks later; And that we're prone to making mistakes, so need to double-check before hitting the Buy or Sell buttons.

Mars is another matter entirely. The symbolism is simple: Mars is Drive; when the planet goes Rx, Drive slips into Reverse.

It doesn't happen every time. But. If the circumstances are in place, that slipping of the gears from Drive into Reverse can see indices backing off a cliff!

Below is a monthly chart of Pollyanna, the SP500. As I've remarked many times, Polly moves up and down within Martian channels. If we look at the Bull peaks in early 2000 and late 2007, we can see the big Mars channels which defined the overall angle of the entire Bull runs.

And we can see the same impact almost all the way through the 2009 to 2015 Bull market. Now, note those little "blips" along the lines ... they're the retrograde periods. In the two previous Bears, prices slipped out of the main rising channels ... and started to crash badly when Mars Rx came along. Those two instances are marked with the yellow ovals.

And we can see from the current price position of the index, such a danger period is now immediately ahead of us. It is not guaranteed, of course. But if it does take hold, the index tends to fall sharply down declining Mars channels, even more easily than it climbs the rising channels. You can see the impact during the two previous Bear markets.

In the last edition, Dead cat bounce nears its likely peak,(click or scroll down to March 13, 2016 post) I indicated that I expected the SP500 to hit a Saturn line, then priced around $2049, but that while that might signal the "price" target, it was unlikely to satisfy the "time" component. In fact, I was a tad mean with the $2049 price tag. When I shifted to a daily chart, Saturn was around $2056 by the time the daily bars hit it. After making first contact, the index backed off before aiming for a gap breakout. At this stage, still a "false" breakout ... because the index is back down to play with the primary Mars line.

Miss Polly isn't the only index driven up and down by Mars channels. Despite some positive divergence in the oscillators at the time of writing the March edition, the ASX 200 hit the lower limits of the weekly price targets I showed then ... and, instead of hanging around to fill in "time", as Polly did, it just started sliding down a primary Martian channel ... making its actual Highs and Lows very close to long-range Neptune price lines (grey on the chart below).
 That does leave the ASX more than a little vulnerable to further falls ... especially if Mars has a Bearish impact during this Rx period. You can see on the weekly planets chart below the index continues to hit those lines regularly during multi-week moves.

A drop below the blue Saturn lines, right where it finished last week, leaves a large hole to fall down.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2016






The Idiot and the Moon, eBook, available for purchase

Saturday, March 12, 2016

Dead cat bounce nears its likely peak

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning March 13, 2016 
In the last Eye of Ra, on February 7, I predicted a dead cat bounce in major stock markets was imminent.

Five weekends later, we need to go into ultra-cautious mode yet again because that bounce is probably very close to hitting its peak ... in Price, though maybe not in Time.

In the last edition, I indicated the bounce may already be underway, with the mid to late January lows marking a turning point.

That was the case in some markets, with others hanging on another few days, until February 10, to hit a final low before the bounce took off.

I also indicated it was probable that Central Banks would try desperately to stop the drop ... and we also saw that happen with the European Central Bank taking unbelievable risks with a decision to prop up corporate bonds.

This edition will be relatively short. I'll give you the all-important planetary price targets for the SP500, but use the ASX 200 as an example of why the bounce may be running out of Price, but not of Time

As usual, Wall Street has been leading the pack higher. The Pollyanna index, the SP500, ended last week only about 5% off its 2015 peak.

There is still a slim chance that we have not entered into Bear territory and that Wall Street could make new all-time Highs in the next few months. But, it is very slim.

More likely is that Pollyanna will start to roll over again, possibly around Wednesday after Jupiter trines Pluto.


The most obvious price target is $2049, a Saturn price line on the index's long-range planetary price chart. I think there is enough positive momentum in the daily, weekly and monthly charts to get Pollyanna to those levels.

In fact, it's the positive momentum, especially in weekly and monthly charts of various indices, that suggests markets are not going to hit a certain price point and then collapse and go into crash mode.

Most Bears seem to be trying to call a "top-and-crash" at every single overhead resistance level and then stand there wondering what went wrong when prices just power through that supposed resistance.

Simply, they're reading the wrong charts. Or reading the right ones wrongly.

Below is the Weekly Planets chart for the ASX 200.

It shows the 200 is about to run into heavy resistance. But the need to be wary of being overly Bearish ... here and now ... is the slow build-up of positive divergence in the Big Bird oscillator. It's distinctly possible it will need some Time to be sufficiently debased to warn of another imminent Bear leg down.

The next chart shows price is still reaching for a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the first downleg. It's worrying that it hasn't climbed back as far as Pollyanna, but you can see how the Fast Bird (green) and Medium Bird (red) lines mirror the Big Bird's efforts to make higher peaks at lower prices.


And if that's not sufficient to warn the Bears to be just a little cautious in growling so adamantly, take note of the higher troughs in both Fast and Medium Birds on the monthly chart below. Monthly divergence. That's not something easily wiped away ... and is why I said in the introduction to this edition, we may well be nearing the peak of the bounce in terms of Price, but not of Time.


Markets have an annoying habit of trying to fool the majority of investors.

So, that's it for this edition. We did get the strong dead cat bounce I spoke about last time. There is a slim chance it will morph into a totally-surprising final upleg of the Bull market.

I urge you to do what I always suggest:

Use the monthly and weekly charts for the long and medium range targets ... up or down. And WHEN price gets near to those targets, THEN turn your attention to daily and intraday charts for signs from the momentum of the oscillators that a trend change is starting to get really close.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2016






The Idiot and the Moon, eBook, available for purchase

Sunday, February 7, 2016

Waiting for the dead cat to bounce

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning February 7, 2016 
It is now virtually certain that all major world stock markets are in the relatively early stages of a big bad Bear.  
We discussed the probability of that in the first two reports for this year, both of which can be accessed by scrolling down.
 
There is still a chance that Central Banks will try desperately to stop the drop, but they appear to have exhausted their ammunition.

The next major rally is, given the extreme levels of technical damage, most likely to be a dead cat bounce which will provide the last chance for many traders to exit Long positions before being wiped out.

That bounce may already be underway, with the mid to late January Lows marking a turning point for a upward-leaning grind that could run into May, perhaps even early June.

Venus conjuncted Pluto and squared Uranus last week, two strongly negative aspects. This week brings a trine to Jupiter. Given both planets are "benefic" and Earth signs are involved, we could see a level of stability return.

I did promise last month to include the current position of some Asian indices; we'll do that this week, as well as taking another look at Wall Street's SP500 and the ASX 200.

 The Nasdaq took a major hit last week, with some of the big name tech stocks rolling over badly. These had been helping to hold aloft the entire American market.

Pollyanna, the SP500, has not yet, I believe, actually confirmed it is now in a Bear market. But that scenario is now leaning heavily towards the probable, rather than the possible.

Below is the 500's long-range planetary price chart. The index is still trying to hold the Pluto level in the early 1870s. It is possible a rebound could take price all the way back to the 2080s. Still, long-term history shows it finds strong levels of both support and resistance at those orange Node lines.

The Weekly Planets chart for the ASX 200 is below, with the index opening and closing last week's trading within a band between grey Neptune now at 5012 and Uranus now at 4974.

There isn't much to stop a further drop if it dives again below the blue Saturns now converging at around 4949. And any rally is likely to find barriers in the 5184 to 5249 range.

India's Nifty is playing very closely to Pluto price lines. Traders can use these lines as potential targets, keeping a very close eye on daily charts for signs of positive or negative divergence starting to show whenever these targets are approached in actual trading.

Hong Kong has already fallen off its Bullish trend line ... something which has not yet happened decisively on the SP500 or ASX 200 ... and has also completed a backtest of the line. Big Bird, the 50CCI, is gasping in the dust of the mine floor.

There is a little positive divergence in the two faster Birds, giving at least some hope for a bounce "from the obvious" level of Fibonacci support.

It's a difficult call, though, since the index is currently stalled below long-range planetary price support. You'll note that in both charts, the next layer of major support doesn't come into force until around 16,000.

Singapore is holding up a little more strongly than the Hang Seng at this stage, still just hanging onto planetary support.

We can see the alternative levels of Fibonacci support and resistance in the chart below. Fibonacci levels and planetary prices will very often be quite close to each other.

The black lines are linked to the previous Bull High and Bear Low and the red ones run from the Bear Low to last year's High, and even a quick glance will show you both sets provide a reliable guide to the likely length of rallies and declines. Again, if you're actively trading in these dangerous conditions, use these as a big picture guide and watch the daily charts like a hawk for any potential turn as the prices are approached.

If this is a major, new Bear ... and it probably is ... the biggest, nastiest, fastest section of the crash is still ahead of us.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2016






The Idiot and the Moon, eBook, available for purchase


Sunday, January 10, 2016

Danger ... the Bear may be underway

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning January 10, 2016


Last weekend I warned that the alarm bells are screaming very loudly.  (scroll down to read last weeks post,. Beware of the Bear.)

After a week of deep-diving stock markets worldwide, I will review below where we may now be in long-range Elliott Wave terms.

It is possible, Stocks would need to begin bouncing strongly and virtually immediately for that to be true.

The alternative is that virtually all major worldwide stock indices made a long-term Bull market top last year and we are already in the grip of a Bear market which could last at least another year and, if follows the "norm", will wipe out perhaps as much as 50% of your net worth. And possibly more in the Wall Street markets.

The onset of the new Bear is not yet set in concrete. However, it is only a few per cent away and as I said last weekend, it was distinctly possible even before last week's dives, that some markets, such as Australia, are already in its grip. because of major astrological  events last week, that the drop is a head fake.

We will begin this report with an updated look at the broad Elliott Wave roadmap, where Bull markets rise in 5 waves. In Forecast 2015, (still available to download) , I had drawn the red arrow on the left indicating where we were at the start of 2015.

It is possible ... but only just ... that Wall Street still has two more rallies before the current Bull is dead. If that is so, those indices are close to where I have drawn the black arrow.

However, the very real danger is that the top is in and a large-scale meltdown is already underway. If that is the case, we may already be within the early stages of a crash ... the second part of a crash which has been underway for months.

As a rough guide, my best guesstimate would place Wall Street about where the red triangle is positioned. In short, we ALL need to watch the next rally very carefully and be prepared to: Get the Hell Outa Dodge!!


We'll look this weekend at the long-range charts for the FTSE and the DAX. England has slumped back into the price zone marked by the two thin, black horizontal lines.

Its position within that zone needs to be monitored VERY closely, because the Big Bird oscillator certainly looks to be in a death dive.

If you look at what happened during the 2007-2009 Bear market on the left of the chart you have a graphic illustration of what I mean when I say we may already be in the early stages of a crash.

The monthly Idiot is now firmly in Sell mode on Germany's DAX. The blue-line Big Bird oscillator is in deep trouble and so, too, is the red-line Medium Bird, which is clearly warning that more trouble is looming. The green-line Fast Bird is showing some positive divergence, though this will not be settled until the end of the month.

Still, it is giving preliminary notification of a potential bounceback nearby.

Please note in the chart above that the Fast and Medium Bird oscillators are looking suspiciously similar to their behaviour just before the 2008 crash.

Below is the DAX's long-range planetary price chart ... and that's one big hole its price is starting to drop into.

More than at any time in the past few years ...

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2016





The Idiot and the Moon, eBook, available for purchase