Sunday, July 12, 2015

High energy impact zone starts now

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning July 13, 2015 
We are now entering one of the astrological high-impact zones of the year.
In Forecast 2015, published in January as a free download, available in the Archives and in the Astrological Investing's shop, I outlined this period from mid-July to early-August with a heavy red border and indicated it was one of three periods likely to be significant for stock prices.

It has already been triggered by the passage of the Sun, but is about to get potentially even nastier.

Mars will oppose Pluto and square Uranus. Mars is symbolic of drive and energy, Pluto rules big power, big money and taxes, and Uranus is representative of "the little guy" demanding a fair go and radical reform.

We've discussed these many times in the past few years because of the long-running square aspect between Uranus and Pluto.

It'll start to get even more intense this week when Venus squares Saturn, an aspect the big guy, Jupiter, will repeat in early August.

And Venus, the ruler of money, material values and diplomatic relations, will soon go retrograde.

Let's not worry ourselves too much about trying to predict the outcome of the astrological transits and, instead, take a look at where we are, primarily with Wall Street's SP500.

In March, I warned that the 500 was about to start running into a series of primary, downtrending planet lines likely to heavily stall the rally.

Incidentally, the same thing will happen to the Australian stock market in the next couple of weeks, but I'll deal with that later in this edition. In the June edition, I indicated traders had to keep a close eye on a primary Pluto level of $2084 for the Pollyanna index (SP500).

It lost the support of that line and is now on its third attempt to retest it from the downside. Strong recovery, especially on a weekly basis, could see Wall Street launch into a rally likely to take it to $2180 or higher. A failure to do so will see prices drop back down under the influence of the falling primary planet lines. 
Remember that we are now in the weakest portion of the stock market year and the "sell in May" theory may be taking effect, with a decline all the way to October.

The chart below shows Pollyanna's long-range planetary price lines and a continued decline could see it drop a lot further yet.
Forecast 2015 also listed the major Bradley Model turn dates for the year ... and this is what has been happening, so far. I always warn you it is the dates which are important, not the direction nor the amplitude of the trend change.

April 3 was two days off a low; May 22 was one day off the all-time closing high; June 8 was one day off a low. The next major turn date doesn't arrive until early October, though there are two minor dates in the next couple of weeks during this high-energy astrological zone.
Now, let's take a technical look at how Pollyanna is holding up. Below is the long-range monthly Bi-BB chart, using a fast MACD as the oscillator and showing a trend pitchfork.

For the past few years, the 500's prices have travelled very strongly within the upper tier of the monthly Bi-BBs. This very useful technique is outlined in The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon.

As well as that, Polly has been trying valiantly to ride along the top edge of the major, blue tyne of the pitchfork. We are starting to see signs of deterioration in the strength of that advance ... and with negative divergence in both the MACD signal lines and histograms.
The deterioration is also evident in a weekly chart, where the pitchfork's tynes are anchored at the first major correction after the Bear bottomed in 2009. The angle of the uptrend continues to hold, but price is finding it increasingly difficult to sustain ... and the Big Bird oscillator doesn't seem convinced that the current correction has completed.

In short, we all need to be very careful in these few weeks into early August.
That might be particularly true for the Australian market. It is now facing the same problem which has thwarted the Wall Street rallies in recent months ... a heavy set of downtrending inner planet lines almost immediately ahead.

If you take a quick eyeball at the left-hand side of the chart, you get an idea of what contact with these once-a-year downtrend lines can do to the index!
The trouble will come if the index rises into around $5700 by the end of the month. During all the volatility of the past couple of months, the ASX 200 has been routinely playing with blue Saturn price lines on its Weekly Planets chart.

The Big Bird oscillator isn't hopeful, at this stage ... and you can see the resistance around the $5700 level is also emphasised on this chart. In any case, these price targets have been working exceptionally well for weeks now ... for initiating Longs or Shorts!
Safe trading - RA
Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2015


Read Randall Ashbourne's FREE report
THE IDIOT AND THE MOON FORECAST 2015
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, is the author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon,  Ashbourne's Galactic Trader planetary charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.

The Idiot and the Moon, eBook, available for purchase

Sunday, May 31, 2015

Headwinds, Mercury Rx, Bradley date

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning June 1, 2015 

There has been little worth talking about since the last edition in April.

I indicated then that the SP500 faced strong headwinds as it ran into primary planet downtrend lines and that even if it overcame those, there was a stack of resistance to overcome in "the next 20 to 30 points"

At that time, the Pollyanna index was at $2102. It ended last week at $2107 ... after putting in some sort of top at $2134. 

June kicks off with Mercury halfway through a Retrograde phase and it's not unusual for a trend change to develop at that halfway mark.

We also have another of the year's major Bradley Model turn dates approaching, around June 8. The details of the Bradley dates were provided in Forecast 2015, which you can read, or re-read, in the Archives.

In this edition, we'll take a look at exactly how Pollyanna has been coping with the long-range planetary price lines.

And, also, how the greenback gold price is holding up.

In the April edition, I showed how the 500 had started to bump into primary downtrend lines. The track record of contact with these lines was dealt with in the March 30 edition.

We expected that price would get caught up in that downtrending planetary jumble. And it did ...
In the past couple of weeks, the index has tried to break northwards from the downward pressure, but has been unable to reach as high as strong, horizontal resistance provided by Uranus and Neptune price lines around 2140.

The Pluto line at 2084 has provided support in the past during this churning, sideways grind and should be watched closely in the days ahead.

The grind has been going on for months and it's likely that this month will see the issue resolved with either a breakout or a breakdown.

Many commentators are leaning heavily towards a breakdown. The only problem with that is when people are expecting a breakdown, the market usually bursts northwards.

In The Technical Section of The Idiot & The Moon, I showed you how to create a simple, hand-drawn trendline and use that as the basis for creating channels which can be used to forecast future price moves.

The basis is that indices and individual stocks have a strong tendency to repeat a particular angle over-and-over again and that by taking parallels of the original line you can create a reliable roadmap.

As we can see, it has been quite useful in determining the angle which is repeatedly in play for this long Bull run.


The 500 closed out last week falling off one instance of that rising angle ... and with the green Fast Bird dropping deeply, warning of the potential for more downside to come in the short-term.

Obviously, further price gains in the index are getting more and more difficult. Negative divergence continues to build in many monthly oscillators and the danger of a large correction continues to grow.

The ASX 200 has been stalled for the past 3 months at a double Fibonacci barrier and its recent price highs have arrived with negative divergence in the Big Bird oscillator. The oscillator has not yet declined below the +100 upper red line in the indicator panel and the May monthly price bar has ended in mid-range, indicating a high level of indecision between both buyers and sellers.

Now let's take a look at the price of gold measured in US dollars, starting with the daily Sun/Pluto chart.

The minor Pluto price line at $1185 continues to provide reasonably strong support, which is even more obvious when viewed on a weekly chart ...
We can see this line first came into play in June 2013. What is interesting is that each subsequent visit to this line, and the stronger, lower one around $1155, has been met with higher troughs in the Big Bird oscillator. That's positive divergence, a sign that internal strength continues to build, despite the constant shenanigans with the price, especially on the futures market.

And that positive divergence is even more obvious on a monthly Bi-BB chart, using a fast MACD as the oscillator. Pressure for a major gold price rally has been building. It's certainly worth keeping a close eye on individual gold mining stocks, especially those with a relatively low cost-of-production. 
Well, I think that's enough for this edition. As I said in The Idiot & The Moon, the smartest thing you can do in trading is shut-up and shut out the constant barrage of noise. This sideways churning is probably driving a lot of people totally nuts ... and that's not a good state of mind for making rational decisions.

Still, it has been going on now for so long that a big move, one way or the other, is becoming imminent.
Safe trading - RA
Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2015


Read Randall Ashbourne's FREE report
THE IDIOT AND THE MOON FORECAST 2015
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, is the author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon,  Ashbourne's Galactic Trader planetary charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
The Idiot and the Moon, Compleat & Utter Lunatic Idiot's G

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Heading into a major Bradley turn date

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts reports and articles on his web site at  theidiotandthemoon.com   The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning March 30, 2015  
The coming week, heading into various religious festivals, also brings the first significant Bradley Model turn date for 2015.

The Full Moon next weekend will be a lunar eclipse ... sister of the recent solar eclipse ... and the configuration will again trigger the broad implications of the long-running Uranus-Pluto square we've talked about many times in the past few years.

Uranus and Pluto have now completed exactitude of the square for the last time, but the "orb" of the aspect will continue to linger.

Jupiter, head honcho of the Old Gods, will also be strongly influential in the next few weeks, as it goes Direct and receives a trine from the Sun. Strong Jupiter periods tend to exaggerate either optimism or fear, so we can expect some explosive moves ... one way or the other.

The period finds Wall Street's SP500 index beginning to bump its highs against some major planetary resistance and it's that we'll spend a little time looking at in this edition.

There are also updates on the ASX 200, Germany's DAX and London's FTSE

About once a year, depending on the speed of rallies or downturns, the SP500 comes into contact with primary price lines from the inner planets ... the Sun, Mercury, Venus and Mars.

In our first chart, we'll look at how these tend to impact rally phases in the index. It's a weekly price chart showing only the Sun and Venus primary lines. Price tends to rise at an angle closely aligned to the annual movement of the planets.

Sometimes price stalls and goes sideways, until it picks up a boost from contact with the next set of rising price lines.

But, what goes up must come down, at least to some degree, and our next chart shows the Sun-Venus impact on the timing and speed of major downturns and significant Bear plunges.

Contact with these downtrend planetary price lines does not always produce a major downturn. But, when one is becoming due ...

Well, the impact can be dramatic.

In our third chart, I have included Mercury and Mars into the mix and we will take a close-up view to show the sort of danger the 500 now faces if it cannot burst above the resistance of the planetary downtrend lines. What it suggests is that Wall Street is now very close to hitting a major hurdle ... a set of planetary influences which almost always produce a multi-week correction.

Our next chart shows the more horizontal price lines of the outer planets and provides the major probable targets for rallies and declines. Regular readers will have become quite familiar with these and know they provide excellent Entry and Exit levels for trades ... if the oscillators on shorter-term charts are showing distinct potential for a trend turn.

Of the other major Western stock indices, Germany is the strongest. And just maybe too strong. Its northbound breakout in the past few months catapulted it above what should have been, based on historical behaviour, a strong resistance barrier.

And our Big Bird oscillator isn't really overjoyed by the move.

While the DAX has left its two previous Bull peaks way behind, the British market continues to struggle against the long-range planetary price lines which acted as a slaughter house for the earlier Bulls.

Allow a little leeway for the posted prices because they're "wavy" and exactitude depends entirely on timing for the monthly bars.

Australia is also faltering at a hurdle ... in the ASX 200's case, a double Fibonacci Retracement barrier. The index managed to break free of the doldrums in the past few months and put on a spurt.

There is some disagreement about exactly where the current blue Fibo Rx level lies because of data differences at the 2009 low ... but all levels of the blue lines displayed below have been important during the past few years and the data difference is not really major.

You'll note that on the chart above, the Big Bird oscillator is starting to sing off-key and that it is a double Fibonacci barrier.

Turning our attention to the ASX 200's Weekly Planets chart, we can note a primary Saturn barrier not far ahead at around 6050, with a Neptune level at 6082.

Weekly Big Bird is even more distinctly off-key than his monthly version as price battles to overcome the minor Saturn resistance around 5942.

And, yes, I've been terribly slack this year ... first time in years I've been able to enjoy the southern Summer and, literally, take some time out to smell the roses.

And they smell so much better than Pollyanna!

I will try to include the Indian/Asian indices in the next few weeks.

In the meantime, just keep a weather eye on the near-term charts, especially with the Bradley date approaching (all of which was covered in the Forecast in January) and as Pollyanna bumps her silly noggin against the inner planet downtrend lines.

Safe trading - RA
Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2015


Read Randall Ashbourne's FREE report
THE IDIOT AND THE MOON FORECAST 2015
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, is the author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon,  Ashbourne's Galactic Trader planetary charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
The Idiot and the Moon, Compleat & Utter Lunatic Idiot's Guide to Trading Stocks,

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

New Moon in Pisces and the Year of the Goat

Image courtesy of Chinese New Year 2015 Element *
The New Moon in Pisces marks the beginning of the Chinese Calendar. The exact new moon time is at 07:48 a.m. on 19-February, 2015 in China's time zone.

The Chinese calendar is based on a lunisolar year (relating to both the Moon and the Sun) - Because the first new moon after the Winter Solstice is the 12th month of the Chinese calendar year, usually the second new moon of the year in the Georgian calendar is actually the first lunar month in the Chinese calendar.  Chinese New Year usually falls in mid February.  (Even though China now uses the Georgian calendar, their new year is based on the ancient Chinese calendar.)

New Year’s Day is the most important date in the Chinese calendar, and is normally a three day work holiday, although some may stretch the holiday even longer.  Celebrations actually continue for the entire month!

Is 2015 The Year of the Goat or Sheep?   It is the Year of the Goat, but  sometimes is referred to as the “Year of the Sheep” because of confusion which stems from the translation of the "yang" Chinese character  -  which can be translated as either a goat or a sheep.

The Goat is the eighth animal of the Chinese Zodiac. Goats are resilient and create their success through perseverance; they are thought of as gentle and sympathetic, but have a strong sense of justice. According to Chinese astrologers, luck within careers will fluctuate for those born in the year of the goat and their financial fortune will be average. However, they are said to possess a power to turn their fortune around – so that when things seem bleak, their luck may change. This year looks good for health.

What is your Chinese Sign? Many Chinese Sign calculators do not account for the non-alignment of the two calendars, using Gregorian-calendar years rather than official Chinese New Year dates!

It is important to check your sign based on a Chinese calendar - you may have miscalculated your Chinese sign using a Georgian calendar! Here is a link to some interesting Chinese Zodiac trivia and a calculator to find your sign. http://www.char4u.com/content/chinese-zodiac-sign/

The Chinese 60 Year CycleAn uncomplicated explanation of the 60 year cycle - and fairly decent history of Chinese Astrology - can be found on Wikipedia:  "The 60-year cycle consists of two separate cycles interacting with each other. The first is the cycle of ten heavenly stems, namely the Five Elements (in order Wood, Fire, Earth, Metal, and Water) in their Yin and Yang forms.

The second is the cycle of the twelve Zodiac animal signs (shengxiĆ o) or Earthly Branches . They are in order as follows: the Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Goat, Monkey, Rooster, Dog, and Pig. In Vietnam the rabbit is replaced by the cat.

This combination creates the 60-year cycle due to the least amount of years (least common multiple) it would take to get from Yang Wood Rat to its next iteration, which always starts with Yang Wood Rat and ends with Yin Water Pig." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_astrology "


Hope you are planning something special - 2015 New Year celebrations continue until the the moon is full, March 5!

******
THE MARKETS

Read Randall Ashbourne's latest FREE report Overview of the ASX 200

Moon phases
New Moon February 18, 2015 - 1st quarter, February 25, 2015- Full moon, March 5, 2015 - Last quarter, March 13, 2015 - Next New Moon, March 20, 2015, the Spring Equinox 
Read Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot & The Moon, eBook regarding trading New Moon and Full Moons.

Important transits this lunar month: (dates are for Eastern Time Zone)
Mar 11 Mars Conjunction Uranus
Mar 11 Mars Square Pluto
Mar 14 Saturn at 04°Sagittarius55' Stations Rx
Mar 16 Uranus Square Pluto
Mar 20 New Moon, the Sun 29°Pisces27' is a Solar Eclipse

All the best to you in this New Year of the Goat, 2015.

Wishing you Trines for the year!

Marley


* Free Download of Chinese New Year 2015 Element 21092 Wallpapers for desktop background.