Saturday, November 22, 2014

The SP500 heading to 2082 target zone

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning November 24, 2014 
Wall Street heads into a shortened trading week, with markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and also due for an early close on Friday.

Reportedly, this is now the third-longest Bull market in modern history for American stocks.

It is surpassed only by the 1921-1929 and 1987-2000 Bull runs ... and there are some commentators who believe that we are still only part of the way through the first leg up of a new "supercycle" Bull.

Most of the Western stock indices are not quite as bouyant as Wall Street and the Nasdaq, so we'll spend some time this weekend having a close look at the technical condition of the SP500 across various timeframes, since it is a "key" market whose direction is likely to have an impact on other markets.

Astrologically, the high-energy period during mid-November had apparently little effect on stock prices, though it does seem to have raised the stakes in what is being dubbed a new Cold War between the USA and Russia.

Joe Biden was back in Ukraine last week, as he was in the weeks before the "popular" pro-Western uprising overthrew the country's Russian-backed President.

Vlad won't be happy. Sergei Lavrov thinks the USA now wants to extend regime change from Kiev to Moscow.

Now, let's take a look at the potential targets immediately ahead after Friday's boisterous gaps up in both Europe and on Wall Street. The Pollyanna index is now not far away from running into overhead, long-range Pluto resistance at 2082.

It is the Pluto line at 1878 which put an end, on a weekly closing price basis, to the recent sharp drop. The low of the drop touched the 1823 Neptune line, so it is possible, after some stalling or a correction at Pluto, that the index will make another run at achieving higher prices.

Okay, well that gets the planetary price targets out of the way. Now let's turn our attention to the technical position and we'll use one of the techniques from The Idiot & The Moon ... Bi-BB charts with a fast MACD across the three main timeframes, daily, weekly and monthly.

We'll start with the daily. Friday brought the third big Opening gap since the current bounce began. The fast MACD oscillator isn't particularly happy. The histograms have gone negative and so have the signal lines. They can stay this way for a while before a decline develops, but the oscillator is suggesting further immediate-term gains are facing headwinds.
On a weekly basis, Friday's big jump took the weekly price bar above the upper Bollinger Band. We've discussed before how breaks of the upper or lower bands tends to stall the direction of the trend-in-play, or prompt an intermediate trend change.

While the MACD histograms endorse the rally, the current peak in the rise of the signal lines is a little more muted in its enthusiasm.
A monthly version of the same technique contains enough news to please both Bulls and Bears. The MACD histograms haven't hit a new high for years and the signal lines are flat-lining.

But we should probably also note that the last two Bull peaks in the 500 didn't occur without the index touching, or breaking, the upper Bi-BB barrier ... and that there has been no monthly Close below the upper layer since the first half of 2012.
What is most interesting about the above chart, though, is November's break above the main upper tyne of the long-range pitchfork.

The Australian stock market has been going in the other direction ... and rather strongly. There is reasonably strong potential support not far below last week's Close ... the Uranus level around 5270.
Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014


Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Volatility on temporary hold

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning November 17, 2014 

 There was a muted reaction to last week's high-energy astrological aspects as many of the world's leaders joined each other for meetings in Beijing and Brisbane.

And the only Bear on show was the old Russian one ... with Europe on edge over troop movements in Ukraine, America testy over Russian flights through Central America, and Australia in a media frenzy over Vlad's "flotilla of warships" in the Coral Sea.

Most stock indices we looked at last weekend avoided direct contact with the price levels of the Mars to Uranus/Pluto contacts.

Many, like London and Toronto, did however reach the price zones of the Sun/Venus contacts with Saturn ... and they don't complete until this coming week.

We're now fast approaching the time of year when Western stock indices start moving upwards for a rally into late-December or January, though it can be delayed until after the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA.

I see little point in publishing the updates on last weekend's charts. Wall Street went nowhere; Toronto went up into the 14,800s level; the FTSE made it into the zone I'd circled; Mumbai's Nifty drifted upwards a little; the ASX200, which had been playing exactly in the Mars/Uranus/Pluto zone dropped out of it; and gold, despite some games, did manage to Close the week back above the important 1182 level.

So, now we wait to see if the Sun conjunct Saturn midweek triggers some real action from all that energy.

Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014


Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.


Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014
 


Sunday, November 9, 2014

Kaboom! The Old Gods go to war

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning November 10, 2014 
 Volatility is about to come roaring back, as the little Gods pick sides in an all-out brawl that involves every single one of the big Gods.

We are likely to see volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunamis ... either literally or metaphorically.

It begins this weekend as Venus squares Jupiter before conjuncting Saturn midweek; the Sun will make the same aspects; Mercury will trine Neptune which goes Direct next Sunday.

And Mars will conjunct Pluto and square Uranus. It is a LOT of cosmic energy being triggered over the course of the next 10 days ... and most of it will be concentrated into this coming week.

We've already had a preliminary taste test ... the Republican sweep of Congress and the Senate, the USA air attack on the IS leadership meeting in al-Qaim, the turmoil in Burkina Faso where the military (Mars) has seized control (Pluto) after a mass uprising (Uranus) ousted the President (Capricorn).

As all that energy becomes exact in the coming days, more regimes may topple, more bombs will go boom, more rebels will rise up.

Stand by for what could be one of the most "interesting" weeks of the year.

We will take a look this weekend at the exact price levels where all that energy is concentrated in a number of world stock markets ... New York, Toronto, London, Amsterdam, Mumbai, Sydney - and gold.

The Venus square Jupiter takes place on Monday in Australia and Asia, as does Mars conjunct Pluto; Venus conjunct Saturn and Mars square Uranus will occur on Thursday; Sun squares Jupiter on Friday. The aspects will occur the previous day in Euro-American markets. (This is just the way the international timezone boundary works.)

Basically, the rocket will take off ... or it will all go kaboom.

Pollyanna first ... the SP500. On the chart below, Mars is red, Uranus is green, Pluto is blue. And here's how it works. The rocket is in warp drive if price breaks through the $2057 planetary price crosssing zone. It will be heading for $2082.

But, if it gets strongly rejected from the 2050s, Wall Street may immediately go back into a strong correction.

And the reverse also applies. If Pollyanna drops to around 1990 or 1967 and starts to rise rapidly, it probably means the boosters have been triggered.

It's the same general principle on all other indices. Here's Toronto ...

Above is the weekly chart. Toronto needs to hold the 14,518 level to have a real shot at the 15,200s. The daily chart, below, provides another potential clue to which way it will all go. The Sun/Venus aspects to Jupiter and Saturn are just below the 14,800s. A strong daily break indicates the run to the 15,200s is on.

And if it doesn't break through and starts to drop, the plunge is likely to take it to at least the 14,200s.

The FTSE is next ...


If London starts the week by rising, it is likely to run into trouble in the 6650-6690 range. If it drops into the early 6400s early in the week, it could bounce. The daily chart below shows that a Sun/Venus meeting with Saturn stopped the recent drop. That was a weak semi-sextile aspect. The circled overhead one is a lot stronger in its trend-change ability.

Amsterdam ...
The AEX has been riding Venus upwards and has been stalling at a blue Jupiter. Monday will tell the story ... it will get a boost from the power of the price crossing, or close below last week's price level and be in danger of a drop.
 

Mumbai's Nifty is below. It must break above the 8486 zone by midweek for further rises. If it drops, the 8212/8234 needs to be watched carefully for Support. If the Support fails to hold, the chances of further strong downside increases substantially.

Sydney is below. The ASX200 has been stalled in the Mars/Uranus/Pluto zone for a week. The key price level to hold to provide a rally boost is 5515. There is price crossing Resistance in the 5580s.


And, finally, gold.

The weekly chart is above, showing the Mars/Uranus/Pluto price crossing levels. Our regular Sun/Pluto daily chart is below. I was always a little unhappy that gold continually bounced from the secondary Pluto line at 1182, believing it really "should" hit the primary Pluto at 1158.

It now, finally, might be getting a boost from a false break of primary Pluto, with even further support from a rising primary Sun line. But, as with the stock indices, it is likely to be impacted by this week's severe traffic jam of planetary aspects and needs to get decidedly above 1182 again before we can hope for a sustainable rally.


Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014


Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.


Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014

Sunday, November 2, 2014

Dive or rally ... which one's the head fake?

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, theidiotandthemoon.com  The following is this weekend's Eye of RA report: Week beginning November 3, 2014 

The exuberance of the stock rally on Wall Street calls into serious question whether it is merely a bounceback, or a resumption of the Bull market.

There was always a chance that the steep dive into mid-October was a Mercury Retrograde head fake, but that was the least preferred of three options.

I indicated last weekend there was potential for the stock bounce to start topping out as early as Monday or Tuesday when the Sun and Venus were due to trine Neptune.

It seemed as if that scenario might be playing out when markets stalled on Wednesday. But! On Thursday and particularly, Friday, Wall Street launched a Moon shot. So, it's certainly possible markets have renewed their Bull campaign.

And it still seems to me to be irrational exuberance. The mid-October turnaround came when a regional Fed-head made noises about continuing QE. Then the actual Fed meeting went hawkish. Instead of turning down, Wall Street continued rising.

And on Friday it went totally ga-ga, ostensibly because Japan will continue the dismal polices which have kept its economy and stock market totally moribund for a quarter of a century. Rational? I don't think so.

The stock market Moon shot was launched when the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Government's main pension fund suddenly announced they would pump trillions more yen into the country's sputtering economy. The Nikkei "soared" ... and many other markets did the same.

Yeah. So here's a quarterly chart of the Nikkei. It doesn't exactly look like skyrockets in flight.




The Wall Street rally is unusual for other reasons ... one of them being three huge Opening gaps. Another of the supposed "reasons" is a surprising jump in GDP. But the increase in "production" was largely in destruction. In other words, it was caused by a big jump in American military spending.

More bombs, more bullets. Think rationally for a moment about the end consequences. It means more terror, not less. The nutbags have already shown they can take this out of the desert dunes and onto the streets of Britain, Canada and Boston. And, inevitably, it means more money on "Homeland Security".

Also, Wall Street's Moon shot is not yet being followed on other markets ... except for India, New Zealand and Switzerland.

Astrologically, we have another round of cosmic turmoil fast approaching. We have the usually negative period of the Full Moon this week, but even stronger potential negatives the following week when Mars conjuncts Pluto and squares Uranus; the Sun squares Jupiter and Venus conjuncts Saturn.

It's the last of those which has a strong track record of changing trend direction. Venus conjunct Saturn aspects are shown with red bars on the chart below and the blue bars are Mars conjunct Pluto.

The astrological aspects suggest there is more trouble and more volatility to come. However, let's look at a few charts and be prepared for whatever comes.

Firstly to the SP500 and the strong rally. The gaps are unusally large.

On the weekly chart below, the bounce started from an "obvious" level, the bottom marker of a trend channel which has defined the price moves since midway through 2011. The new price peak is, so far, accompanied by lower peaks in all three Canary oscillators.

Still, it could be a resumption of the Bull phase, so we need to be aware of the upside price targets if that is the case. The first major target is the blue Pluto line in the 2080s. You will note there was stalling at the 1878 Pluto line and that it did hold the Closing weekly prices on the correction into mid-October. And since the bounce came from the Neptune line at 1823, it wouldn't be unusual for the 2137 line to be hit if the Bull is back in play.

Turning to the ASX200, I indicated last weekend we would need to monitor the state of the Birds when price reached the Saturn line now priced at 5458 to get an idea if the bounce was over or the index would target the 5500s. It certainly looked as if the rally was going to stall at Saturn. But, the Birds got it wrong.

The Big Bird oscillator on the ASX Weekly Planets chart, below, has rebounded even more strongly than it has (the yellow line) on the daily chart. So, as we did with the SP500, we need to be aware of the potential upside targets over the next few weeks if the Bull is back.


Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne (Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2014


Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, and The Idiot and the Moon, Forecast 2014, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.


Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's The Idiot and The Moon, Forecast 2014