Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Backtesting the Mars-Uranus crash cycle

Randall Ashbourne, an associate of Astrological Investing, posts a weekly market report on his web site, The following  is this weekend's Eye of RA report:    Week beginning July 9, 2012

There is a very famous American financial astrologer who makes dire predictions whenever Mars is about to make a harsh aspect with the old weirdo, Uranus. So, this weekend we're going to examine the historical reality of whether there really is a Mars-Uranus crash cycle, since we have the potential for one to develop in the next couple of weeks.

And we're also going to revisit some comments I made a month ago about Jupiter's sign change to Gemini shifting the money flows.

Overall, the high-energy days for the coming week are likely to be Thursday and Friday, when both Mercury and Uranus go Retrograde ... and the Sun moves in to square Saturn. But, it is the following week which is likely to be much more volatile as Mars, now in the Cardinal (action) sign of Libra, squares Pluto and opposes Uranus

The Sun square to Saturn, coupled with Uranus going Rx as it's fired up by Mars, do symbolise a major energy shift which has the capacity to turn markets and accelerate the moves.

But, before we get to that, I want to return to some comments I made about Jupiter changing signs to Gemini.

I said: "With Jupiter in Taurus, for example, the emphasis has been on banking and debt - the Taurus/Scorpio axis; and also on technology and gold, the Aquarius/Leo axis. I think most of you will agree that banks, brokers, Apple and gold have been the topics de jour for all the time the FatBoy has been in Taurus.

Slowly, you'll see a change; transportation, travel, health, labour and oil will begin to fill the news pages."So, this weekend we're going to examine the historical reality of whether there really is a Mars-Uranus crash cycle, since we have the potential for one to develop in the next couple of weeks.

Now, let me indulge in a little bit of basic astrology for those of you unfamiliar with the arcane details of The Spooky Stuff. Jupiter was head honcho of the Old Gods and is associated with all the good things - he expands whatever he touches.

So, while he was in Taurus and opposing Scorpio, the banks and debt got exaggerated ... and because the FatBoy was squaring the Leo/Aquarius axis, the effect also impacted on gold and the technology sector.

In early June, I indicated the emphasis would start to change. Gemini rules transportation and the media; Sagittarius rules foreign travel, universities and the law; Virgo is labour, accountancy, health; and Pisces rules oil, shipping, hospitals, prisons and (with Virgo), big pharmaceuticals.

The effect of Jupiter is to expand either the supply OR the demand. I really want to emphasise that point ... the supply OR the demand.
Several news reports caught my eye during the week.

NEW YORK - US stocks have racked up solid gains in a holiday-shortened trading session, boosted by reports of strong June sales from the leading US auto makers.

Data showing that car sales in Germany are resisting the eurozone crisis drove Frankfurt's DAX 30 index up 1.26 per cent to 6,578.21 points.

DETROIT - The Big Three US car manufacturers have reported strong domestic sales for June, capping a solid first half of the year even as US economic growth overall remained weak.

DETROIT, July 3 AP - General Motors Co said its US sales rose 16 per cent in June on solid demand for small and midsize cars.

PARIS - US aircraft maker Boeing has raised its 20-year forecast for global demand for airliners by $US500 billion ($A489.21 billion).

We've also been treated to plans by News Corporation to split itself into two divisions. And, there was a very interesting story about how a massive fleet of Chinese coastal shipping - somewhere between 1500 and 2000 cargo vessels - is now competing for traffic volume worldwide because trade between northern and southern China has declined massively.

So, this is an example of how it works. Jupiter in Gemini squares the sign of Pisces, which rules shipping, and the SUPPLY of ships suddenly becomes terribly exaggerated.

Jupiter opposes Sagittarius, the sign of foreign travel, and Boeing gears up for a big increase in DEMAND.

Jupiter enters Gemini, the transportation sector, and the DEMAND for new cars surges ... or the world's biggest media conglomerate splits into TWO (always a Gemini signature!).

I revisit this issue because a sign change by Jupiter is one of the more reliable astrological predictions ... the money flow WILL change to different sectors, either the supply OR the demand will escalate dramatically in those sectors ... and there are substantial profits to be made by getting out of the former and piling into the latter.

So, it could prove to be worthwhile to look at the technical state of the charts for car manufacturers and transport companies (including railroads), big pharmaceutical companies, oil companies, media stocks, airlines ... and any companies associated with supplying services to either them, or hospitals, prisons etc.

Okay, now let's turn our attention to whether or not there really is a RELIABLE Mars-Uranus crash cycle. We'll concentrate purely on the opposition aspect, since that's the one due to become exact in the next couple of weeks. I do need to emphasise that this next one occurs with a simultaneous square to Pluto, so is more likely than usual to have an impact, especially since all three planets are in the early degrees of Cardinal signs.

We will begin by examining the impact on the SP500 in recent years.
Mars opp Uranus
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We're looking at a weekly chart of the Pollyanna index and the Mars opposed Uranus aspects are marked with red bars. And it's immediately obvious that the aspect does NOT necessarily provoke a market crash. Of the seven instances marked on the chart, only two turned up near important Highs. Four of them occurred nearby important Lows.
What gets some astrologers overly-excited, is that it was one of the aspects in effect at the start of the Great Crash.
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The chart above shows the Dow Jones Industrials from the late 1920s to early 1970s - and one can see why the arrival of Mars opposed to Uranus sets the alarm bells ringing. The aspect does have an overall tendency to occur very nearby the start of some very bad crash cycles.

But, it's not a certainty, as we can see in the chart below, which covers the Great Sideways Shuffle period in the DJIA from the early 60s to early 80s.

DJIA 1960's
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Okay, it's almost time to stop waffling on about les Spookies and turn our attention to the techie charts. The point I wanted to make is that astrology does have its uses. There are some things it is very good at predicting reliably - which is the sector shift caused by Jupiter changing signs.

And there are other things which get some astrologers very, very excited ... but which are a tendency, rather than a reliable certainty.

At the risk of boring you all silly, I will repeat the mantra again ... Astrological expectations do NOT over-ride technical conditions!

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As I said last week, there are only two really important horizontal lines of Support/Resistance for the 500 ... and, GeeGolly, looks like they continue to be important, eh?

And we've been discussing this one, too, for the past few weeks - expecting she'd face some hurdles at the 1340s and 1360s. We have some relatively mild divergence showing up at last week's pre-holiday peak in the height of the MACD histograms ... and the potential is showing on the earlier weekly chart for the intermediate-range Canary to be turned down from a hit of the Zero line.
Support/Resistance SPX
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Let's go to London's FTSE.

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I introduced this chart a few weeks ago to show the potential for a the index to launch a rally from contact with the rising (diagonal) Sun lines ... but I'd like you to compare the planetary chart with the technical one below.
And the reason is I want to emphasise to those of you on a budget that you don't need really fancy software. In the chart below, the bounce came from a hand-drawn trendline, which then allowed us to set up some Fibonacci Retracement targets. Targets which have worked very well!

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All of this comes back to the point that trading profitably does NOT have to be terribly difficult. WE make it difficult by clogging our brains with crap. Simple works! Simple works really bloody well. Shut out the noise ... pay attention to the simple charts you've drawn for yourself ... watch for divergence in the oscillators when Price is hitting predetermined levels of Support or Resistance.

I'll leave you once again with Auntie's Weekly Planets chart for the ASX 200.

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Safe trading - RA

Randall Ashbourne
Astrological Investing's associate, Randall Ashbourne, author of the eBook, The Idiot and The Moon, writes a free weekly column titled, The Eye of Ra on his web site in  which he explains the potential impact of astrological aspects and the current state of technical conditions. Ashbourne's charts are revealing illustrations of exactly what has occurred in the market and the probability of what to expect.
Important reading:  Randall Ashbourne's article, Jupiter's cycle and its effects on Wall Street and a posting of the weekly Eye of Ra report in this blog, titled A look at the Venus Retrograde effect

(Disclaimer: This article is not advice or a recommendation to trade stocks; it is merely educational material.)
Copyright: Randall Ashbourne - 2011-2012


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